NFL draft analysis
Denver Post NFL reporter Troy E. Renck analyzes each team’s needs and likely pick in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)
Greatest need: Teams without elite signal-callers don’t win in the league. The Bucs are seeking a franchise-player.
Likely pick: QB Jameis Winston, Florida State. Winston’s alarming interceptions and off-field behavior create questions on whether he can be trusted, but no quarterback in this draft is more prepared to run a pro-style offense. He also possesses the durability to take big hits and stay on his feet.
2. Tennessee Titans (2-14)
Greatest need: Unless you are a relative of Zach Mettenberger or a huge Louisiana State fan, it’s time to concede that Titans require a quarterback. Oregon’s Marcus Mariota brings leadership, maturity, intelligence and speed. But the Titans are likely to consider trading the pick for multiple first-rounders with Cleveland and San Diego as potential suitors.
Likely pick: QB Mariota, Oregon. Uncertain that he will play in Tennessee because of trade interest.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
Greatest need: Vacancies litter the lineup, but coach Gus Bradley covets a defensive player capable of creating havoc.
Likely pick: DT Leonard Williams, USC. He represents surest thing in draft given his ability to play right away. Will be better in pros with less run responsibility.
4. Oakland Raiders (3-13)
Greatest need: A cornerback or pass rusher would accelerate new coach Jack Del Rio’s blueprint for success. However, his team requires speed and production on the perimeter to help blossoming young QB Derek Carr.
Likely pick: WR Amari Cooper, Alabama. A playmaker of the same ilk as Julio Jones. Kevin White also in the mix.
5. Washington Redskins (4-12)
Greatest need: For all the questions surrounding the QB position, this team can’t win if it can’t stop anyone.
Likely pick: DE Dante Fowler, Florida. Brings good size, explosiveness and ranks as the best edge rusher on many teams’ boards.
6. New York Jets (4-12)
Greatest need: Lost in the quarterback chaos, the Jets own a stout defense. Bolstering the offensive line could help round out a talented roster.
Likely pick: G/T Brandon Scherff. Boring can be good as the Cowboys learned last season with their first-round pick. Can Jets resist temptation to trade for Mariota?
7. Chicago Bears (5-11)
Greatest need: Defense porous. Offense needs a playmaker. It will be a strong debate on draft day on which direction to go in coach John Fox’s first draft in Chicago.
Likely pick: WR Kevin White, West Virginia. If the Bears want to assist maligned QB Jay Cutler, they must surround him with talent. White provides biggest upside of any WR in draft.
8. Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
Greatest need: Pass rusher fits in so many ways, heightened by the hiring of former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as head coach.
Likely pick: DE Bud Dupree, Kentucky. Trending upward past two months. Reliable, explosive. Passing on local running back Todd Gurley won’t go over well.
9. New York Giants (6-10)
Greatest need: Eager for help getting to the QB. But might not fit here.
Likely pick: RB Todd Gurley, Georgia. Not the greatest need, but a remarkable talent who could be a bell cow for several seasons.
10. St. Louis Rams (6-10)
Greatest need: A cornerback would provide finishing touches on an alarmingly good defense. Alas, draft is not deep at this position.
Likely pick: WR Devante Parker, Louisville. Go for best player, not need, skipping over Michigan State CB Trae Waynes.
11. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Greatest need: Could be a running back if Adrian Peterson is traded during the first round on Thursday.
Likely pick: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State. Rangy, long and comfortable in press coverage.
12. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
Greatest need: Bulking up the O-line. But if Mariota slips to the fifth pick, look for Browns to make a play for the quarterback.
Likely pick: DT Danny Shelton, Washington. Compares favorably to NFL star Vince Wilfork.
13. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Greatest need: Playmakers. They filleted the roster because of cap issues.
Likely pick: DE Arik Armstead, Oregon. Have to believe would prefer to go with Nebraska’s Randy Gregory or Missouri’s Shane Ray, but the off-field concerns could push both down on boards.
14. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Greatest need: Learning to finish a season? Help on the perimeter always a good thing.
Likely pick: WR Breshad Perriman, Central Florida. Consistently runs 4.2 40, leaving him able to take the top off any defense. Focus and drops create pause.
15. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
Greatest need: Linebacker depth decimated by retirements. Must infuse talent on defensive line.
Likely pick: DE Shane Ray, Missouri. Controversial pick because of recent arrest. But best player available at a position of need. Can they live with his dumb decision and lingering foot issue?
16. Houston Texans (9-7)
Greatest need: Lost leadership, production by parting with Andre Johnson.
Likely pick: WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami. Has breathtaking quickness and speed that has drawn apt comparisons to Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown.
17. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Greatest need: Help in the trenches. This could begin the run on offensive tackles.
Likely pick: RT/G La’el Collins, LSU. Police are looking to interview Collins regarding his relationship of a woman who was murdered. If he is deemed a suspect, he will plummet off all draft boards.
18. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
Greatest need: A receiver capable of catching a touchdown pass is a good place to start. But with the signing of Jeremy Maclin might have to bulk up defense instead.
Likely pick: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest: Chiefs need future contributors at a position where they are thin.
19. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
Likely pick: Having two selections in the top 20 makes them primed to move up in draft for a quarterback. With Collins gone to Chargers, tackle Andrus Peat represents great value if they keep pick.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Greatest need: They collect quarterbacks like the Patriots do championships. Should not take another one.
Likely pick: CB Marcus Peters, Washington. A top-10 talent whose stock dropped after run-ins with college coaching staff.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
Greatest need: Anyone who can help them win their first playoff game in decades.
Likely pick: WR Nelson Agholor, USC. Agholor racing up draft boards over the past two months.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Greatest need: The loss of Troy Polamolu stings. He formed the heart of the Steelers’ defense.
Likely pick: S Landon Collins, Steelers. Fills a need. Is physical tackler, who must improve in coverage.
23. Detroit Lions (11-5)
Greatest need: Defensive tackle cupboard grew bare quickly. Adding a run stuffer should be a priority.
Likely pick: DT Malcom Brown, Texas. This pick hurts Denver if it falls this way. He’s definitely on Broncos’ radar if don’t move up for an offensive lineman.
24. Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Greatest need: A running back to complement QB Carson Palmer.
Likely pick: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. Has the talent to become the best NFL back the Badgers have produced.
25. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Greatest need: Additional outside threats for still-developing QB Cam Newton.
Likely pick: WR Devin Smith, Ohio State. A burner with toughness and knack for big catch. Should be better in pros than college.
26. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Greatest need: Offensive line and running back positions lack depth.
Likely pick: RT DJ Humphries, Florida. Might be best right tackle in draft. Plays with mean streak. Won’t take long to be NFL ready.
27. Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
Greatest need: Bulking up the defense, and adding to depleted running back stable.
Likely pick: LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA. Given injuries at the position, Kendricks could start from the jump. Was tackling machine in college.
28. Denver Broncos (12-4)
Greatest need: Right tackle, offensive line in general, linebacker, defensive line.
Likely pick: C Cameron Erving, Florida State. Expectation remains that Broncos will try to move up for a tackle. If not, Erving provides versatility and fits zone-blocking scheme well, making it worth passing on Oklahoma defensive tackle Jordan Phillips.
29. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Greatest need: The Colts offensive line was a jumbled mess last season.
Likely pick: RT T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh. Might need developmental time first season, but could be a solid bodyguard for years for QB Andrew Luck.
30. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Greatest need: A linebacker such as Mississippi State’s Bernardrick McKinney fits, but might be a reach.
Likely pick: CB Jalen Collins, Packers. In passing league never can have enough long, athletic defensive backs who are comfortable in one-on-one matchups.
31. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
Likely pick: DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska. Need contributors across board for a remodeled team. Gregory brings questions because of his admitted marijuana use. He also brings talent uncommon for this spot in draft.
32. New England Patriots (12-4)
Greatest need: Coach Bill Belichick remains genius at finding specific niche roles for players.
Likely pick: DT Eddie Goldman, Florida State. With Vince Wilfork gone, adding bulk and athleticism up front makes sense.
