LONDON — Exit poll results released late Thursday after a nationwide vote to pick Britain’s next Parliament showed the Conservatives with a surprisingly commanding lead, just short of a majority and in a strong position to hang on to power.
The results suggested that the Conservatives would win 316 seats in the 650-member Parliament, compared with 239 for the opposition Labour Party.
If those numbers hold up, the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, would still need allies to cobble together a majority and renew their lease on 10 Downing Street after five years in office. But they would be in a far better position to govern the country than many expected on the eve of the vote, with months of pre-election polls pointing to a too-close-to-call outcome.
Another Conservative-led government would mean a doubling down on austerity for the British economy after years of belt-tightening, and a potentially divisive debate over Britain’s membership in the European Union. It could also trigger renewed calls for Scottish independence.
Leading Tories cautiously declared victory late Thursday, saying their record in bringing the economy back from the depths of recession had been validated. Labour leaders, meanwhile, attempted to put a good face on what looked to be a deeply disappointing result.
Such a wide Tory margin would leave Labour, led by Ed Miliband, with a tortuously difficult path to power. The party was also grappling with what appeared to be a historic rout in its traditional Scottish stronghold at the hands of the Scottish National Party, which was projected to be Parliament’s third largest force.
British exit polls have proved accurate in previous contests. But pollsters said the outcome this year could be particularly tricky to project given the critical role of smaller parties, which together appeared to have scooped up about a third of all votes.
The actual results were still being tabulated early Friday, with official figures streaming in throughout the night.
The exit poll results shocked British political observers, who for weeks had predicted a murky, too-close-to-call result. Appearing on the BBC, Labour and Liberal Democrat politicians questioned the poll’s accuracy, saying they would wait for final results.
Leading Tory politician Michael Gove said if the results hold, it means the Conservatives “have won.”
“If … this exit poll is right, then David Cameron has won a very handsome victory,” Gove said on the BBC.
On the streets, Tories were echoing that view.
“I’m celebrating,” said Lawrence Worsley, a 48-year-old project manager, as he held a pint of beer high in the air at the Blue Boar, a swanky restaurant close to the Conservative and Labour party headquarters in London.
“I think people who were undecided came to the polls and made their mind up at the last minute that it’s best to stick with what you know, something that has worked,” he said.
When the exit poll was announced on the BBC, a cluster of suited patrons watching on the restaurant’s big-screen televisions cheered, while others audibly gasped.
If the exit poll results are sustained, the Conservatives will face a choice of whether to go into a formal coalition with other parties, or to try to forge ahead with a minority government that wins support from allies on key votes.
The exit poll projected a collapse of the Conservatives’ current coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, leaving the party with just 10 seats, down from 57 in 2010. The Conservatives could turn to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party for additional support.
Ed Balls, Labour’s top economic official, said Labour still held out hope of forming a workable government. But analysts suggested that such a clear margin in the Conservatives’ favor would make it nearly impossible for Labour to claim a mandate.
“We’re into uncharted territory,” said Andrew Russell, chairman of the politics department at the University of Manchester. “We have an electoral system that is designed to produce a certain winner, and to sustain two parties. But now it’s throwing up a whole multiplicity of parties.”
The results followed a campaign that laid bare fundamental questions about Britain’s identity, and that could become even more divisive in the years ahead. At a time of growing U.S. frustration with its closest ally, Britain might be drawn even further inward and away from global affairs.
