It’s barely August, the presidential election is 15 months off, and here we are with a Republican presidential debate only a day away. But given the special circumstances of the GOP field, this debate won’t slip by unnoticed.
Indeed, it may even make a difference in the campaign, which is quite rare
It would be nice, for example, to see Donald Trump self-destruct in a blaze of inanity. But that’s probably too much to hope for. And if what Trump has said so far hasn’t torpedoed his campaign, it’s hard to see how he could be more outrageous on Thursday.
Trump of course remains atop the polls among Republican candidates, chiefly because of his blowhard populism. But part of the reason is also that the field is unusually fluid, with even some candidates whom everyone takes seriously as a possible nominee, such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, failing to break double digits in the polls.
The field itself is also remarkably large — to the point that Fox News is limiting the prime time list to the 10 with the highest poll numbers. Most Republican voters haven’t seen many of them on a stage fielding questions. Once they do, perhaps the poll numbers will diverge more dramatically.
One of the unfortunate realities of contemporary politics, with the two major parties now less diverse ideologically than at any time in the past century, is that candidates feel compelled to pander to their activist base.
That’s why Hillary Clinton has moved sharply to the left in recent months. And that’s why most GOP candidates sound tediously similar on issues such as the Affordable Care Act and the Iran nuclear deal, and why a few — Mike Huckabee and Scott Walker, for example — keep saying things that seem perversely designed to alienate the moderate middle.
Trump has been the story of the past two months, but his ascendancy can’t last forever (we keep saying). At some point, surely, actual Republican voters will notice Trump’s history of giving money to Democrats and taking liberal stands on such major issues as health insurance, taxes and entitlement reform.
At that point, primary voters now enamored by Trump’s bravado will likely turn to someone else — and this opening debate should help determine who benefits.
To send a letter to the editor about this article, submit or check out our for how to submit by e-mail or mail.
