George Brauchler continues to flirt with a U.S. Senate bid just as a new poll suggests a matchup against Democrat incumbent Michael Bennet may start at a dead heat.
The poll gives Bennet a 45 percent to 42 percent advantage against the Republican district attorney — a narrow edge that puts the race at a statistical tie given the 3.4 percent margin of error. It’s a similarly tight race in a potential head-to-head between Bennet and Republican Robert Blaha, with Bennet holding a 4-point advantage among registered voters.
Clarity Campaign Labs, which works for Democrats, conducted Sept. 10-13 on behalf of End Citizens United, an organization that is seeking to overturn the U.S. Supreme Court ruling about corporate spending in elections.
It comes with an asterisk (see why below), but the numbers is worth a look because it offers the only public peek inside what a Brauchler (or Blaha) candidacy may mean for the Democratic incumbent.
Brauchler will make an announcement in early October about whether he will enter the race. But it’s looking more and more likely he will make the move, coming out on conservative talk radio to blast Bennet for his Iran vote and hinting at a run .
U.S. Michael Bennet is being targeted by Republicans ahead of the 2016 election. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Brauchler said a key decision point is how it will affect his family — but he recently that his wife is supportive of whatever decision he makes. Democratic operatives are salivating about a potential run and note that someone registered a brauchlerforsenate.com website amid the Aurora theater shooting trial that gave him broader recognition.
But the trial didn’t make Brauchler a household name. The Clarity Labs poll found only 15 percent had an opinion of him. Only 12 percent had an opinion of Blaha, who said he will run. The poll didn’t test a third potential Republican candidate, , or the other declared candidates in the race.
End Citizens United did not release Bennet’s favorability ratings — but another poll in July found his numbers were .
An interesting caveat to the poll is its sample — which is reflective of what the polling firm believes the 2016 election will look like. The poll used state’s list of registered voters and is weighted to a turnout that is 34 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican and 29 percent unaffiliated. It is also 54 percent female and only 8 percent Latino.
Whether this is reality is a big question. Democrats surely hope Latinos will turn out in greater numbers in 2016 after hitting 14 percent in 2012, . The party breakdown is also interesting given that show active voters at 31 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican and 35 percent unaffiliated.
The other huge qualifier on the poll — before Brauchler or Blaha face Bennet, they likely will need to survive a GOP primary race that surely would change voters’ perception. And Bennet will need to survive a on his candidacy, too.
In case you’re interested, the organization behind the poll suggests that 66 percent of Colorado residents oppose the Citizens United decision and projects that it could play a role in deciding which candidate wins. The question is based on its wording of the situation, of course, which advocates of the decision would surely call one-sided.
