The Avalanche is in the best division in the NHL, making it a bit less ignominious to have pulled off a first-to-worst fall in the seven-team Central last season that left it outside the playoff field.
Thanks to frequent three-point games that create illusions in the standings, the 39-31-12 record and 90-point total didn’t look as disappointing as they actually were in a league in which the average was 92 points, making that the true break-even point. NHL folks like to claim something along the lines of 35-35-12 (or a point per game) as “.500” hockey, but that’s wildly misleading.
All attempts to put earrings on that season — or rationalize it with such things as injuries, or even indulge in denial — tended to fall flat. That’s because expectations were so high, the young talent core was acknowledged and envied throughout the league, and it was so surprising in the wake of the Avalanche’s 112-point season in 2013-14.
But Colorado addressed its perceived weaknesses in the offseason. Despite an ugly 1-4-1 exhibition season that glaringly featured the Avalanche scoring only one goal in the final five games, there is cause for optimism that this team will be good enough to get a playoff spot, especially if both Western Conference wild-card spots come out of the Central.
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“We like what we’ve got here,” said Avalanche general manager Joe Sakic. “We added more depth and character guys. We like where we’re going. I’m not going to lie to you, I’m a little nervous after getting only one goal in the last five preseason games. I know when I was a player, I wouldn’t have been as worried. Now when you’re on this side, it makes you worried and concerned a little bit. But I know we have offensive players who can score goals, and we’re hoping to see that from Day One.
“I know our mind-set is different than last year. Last year, going into the season, we might have been overconfident. We know the players realize how tough it’s going to be and will be ready and up for the challenge.”
Here is a breakdown of what to expect from the team this season:
Forwards
The good news last season was that veterans Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla led the Avalanche in scoring for much of the schedule.
The bad news last season was that veterans Alex Tanguay and Jarome Iginla led the Avalanche in scoring for much of the schedule.
Short of Tanguay and Iginla putting up ridiculous numbers — and they didn’t — there was no excuse for that happening on a team trumpeting the talents of its young forwards, including Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabe Landeskog and Ryan O’Reilly.
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Adding Carl Soderberg from Boston, essentially as O’Reilly’s replacement, was part of the Avs making the best of an awkward situation, and if Mikhail Grigorenko — the 21-year-old Russian who played major junior for coach Patrick Roy at Quebec and also was part of the O’Reilly deal with Buffalo — contributes, it will be a huge boost.
Mikko Rantanen, the 18-year-old Finn who went to Colorado at the No. 10 choice in the June draft, will be on a nine-game trial before his entry-level contract kicks in.
The keys, though, are Duchene and MacKinnon stepping up — or, perhaps more accurately, stepping back up.
Defense
Erik Johnson was having a career year when he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in late January and was done for the season. With a contract extension that ties him up through 2022-23, the onus is on him to prove that he truly is becoming what that contract demands — becoming and staying one of the league’s elite defensemen … which means at both ends of the ice, with new partner Francois Beauchemin.
The tentative plan to play Nikita Zadorov and the offensive-minded Tyson Barrie together as the second pairing has been scuttled, at least initially, and the key there is whether Nate Guenin — or whoever ends up with Barrie most of the time — is staunch enough to keep that pairing from being an accident waiting to happen in front of Semyon Varlamov. If the Avs are trying to get away with playing a true NHL fifth-through-eighth defenseman in the second pairing, it will be a major problem.
Goaltending
All set here … at least when Semyon Varlamov is in net. The issue, of course, is what happens in the conventional backup slots and whether Reto Berra is up to giving Colorado a chance to win on the nights he plays. The Lake Erie Shuttle for Calvin Pickard would be the San Antonio Shuttle this season.
Special teams
For the Avs to get back to the postseason, the power play — dreadful last season at 15 percent, better only than Buffalo — must at least get to the point where the Avalanche isn’t best served to decline penalties. OK, that’s a stretch, but the power play was head-scratchingly awful, and that can’t happen again. Or at least it shouldn’t. Not with this talent.
Blake Comeau, signed as a free agent after a one-season stay with the Penguins, is known as a strong penalty killer, and that will help offset the loss of O’Reilly … at least when the Avs are short-handed. Colorado was fifth in the league on the penalty kill last season (84.6 percent), so matching that would be acceptable.
Coach
Patrick Roy served his eight-season apprenticeship as a coach on the major-junior level, so this isn’t a former star who walked right into NHL coaching without paying dues. How adaptive will he be after the disappointing season of a year ago?
Terry Frei: tfrei@denverpost.com or @TFrei
