TEHRAN, Iran — As Iran marks the anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, there are signs that the Islamic Republic’s attitude toward the United States is as negative as ever.
The arrests of U.S. citizens, hints of a Cold War-style prisoner swap and fears of Western infiltration show the suspicion still held by hard-liners after the nuclear deal with world powers.
In the short term, things may even get worse, analysts say, as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continues to warn about American influence, a crucial parliamentary election approaches, and the country’s intelligence and military services try to hold onto their economic and political power.
“I think many Americans and many Iranians didn’t take the leader at his word that this does not mean détente, that this is a one-off transaction. I think the system was deadly serious about this,” said Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group. “I think the increased contact will lead to détente with the U.S., but we have a lot of harsh repression to go through before we get there.”
On Wednesday, thousands demonstrated in front of the old U.S. Embassy, marking the 36th anniversary of students seizing 52 Americans hostage there after Washington refused to hand over the toppled U.S.-backed shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The protest came despite the deal that will see Tehran limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Meanwhile, four Iranian-Americans are known to be held by Iran: Iranian-American journalist Jason Rezaian of The Washington Post; former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati of Flint, Mich.; pastor Saeed Abedini of Boise, Idaho; and Siamak Namazi, a businessman and the son of a politician from the shah’s era.
Separately, former FBI agent Robert Levinson disappeared in Iran in 2007 while working for the CIA on an unapproved intelligence mission. Iran also announced the arrest of Washington-based Lebanese citizen Nizar Zakka, who holds permanent-resident status in the U.S.
Iranian media has raised the possibility of exchanging some Americans for 19 Iranians held in the U.S. While that potential swap may figure into the arrests, Kupchan said the detentions also signal that the Iranian “deep state” still has a “number of post-deal messages it wants to send,” including to Iranians living abroad.
“To me, the message to the Iranian-American community is: ‘Don’t think you’re going to use your connections to come in and take over economic profits … in post-deal Iran, because you’re not,'” he said.
Another message involves projecting Iran’s power in the region, like supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad in his country’s long civil war. Images promoting Iran’s military prowess abound.
Anti-Americanism plays into that. As demonstrators burn American flags, a new Tehran billboard appropriates the famous Associated Press photo of the World War II flag-raising at Iwo Jima with blood-covered U.S. soldiers standing on a pile of corpses.
