Brock Osweiler is Johnny Manziel without all the made-for-TMZ drama. But as an NFL quarterback? He’s no better, no worse.
If Osweiler and Blaine Gabbert traded uniforms, only a mother could find anything to love about the pedestrian work either young QB does under center.
“The one thing I do know in the National Football League is that the most important stat is wins and losses,” Osweiler said Wednesday. “I think, as a quarterback, you need to understand what puts your team in the best position to win football games.”
Since taking over for injured Peyton Manning as the starting quarterback, Osweiler is 3-0. It doesn’t get any better than undefeated. But, to be honest, the offensive game plan Denver has given Osweiler to execute can be summarized in four succinct words: Do not mess up.
Can the Broncos win the Super Bowl with that conservative approach?
I don’t know about you, but my Magic 8-Ball says: Outlook not so good.
Let’s do a blind test with three young NFL quarterbacks, based on their statistics during limited duty in the 2015 season.
Player A: 963 yards passing, 63.0 percent completion rate, five touchdowns, three interceptions, 14 sacks, 89.5 quarterback rating.
Player B: 933 yards passing, 59.4 percent completion rate, five touchdowns, two interceptions, 8 sacks, 88.4 quarterback rating.
Player C: 832 yards passing, 61.3 percent completion rate, five touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 sacks, 85.8 quarterback rating.
They all play like the same guy.
Player A is Gabbert, a first-round bust with Jacksonville now stuck in the mess known as the San Francisco 49ers. Player B is Manziel, routinely blasted for being more interested in being the life of the party than being a leader for Cleveland. Player C was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated, after Osweiler handed New England its first loss.
Would any reasonable person give Manziel or Gabbert much of a shot to win the Super Bowl, even with the benefit of dressing in the same locker room as the nasty Denver defense?
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens (circa 2000) won the Super Bowl as linebacker Ray Lewis roared, while quarterback Trent Dilfer quietly stayed out of the way. As Broncos cornerback Chris Harris has become fond of saying, “A punt is not a bad play for our offense.” That championship formula, however, works maybe once a decade.
So long as Osweiler sticks to the script written for him to follow at the outset of games, his efficiency has been off the charts. In three starts, Osweiler has completed 7-of-8 passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns on Denver’s opening possession of recent contests against Chicago, New England and San Diego. That’s good stuff.
But take Osweiler off the script, and it appears coach Gary Kubiak coddles him with an offense as conservative as anything ever run by Dan Reeves. Outside of the opening possession of the game, Osweiler has taken the field for 35 drives and produced TDs only five times. That’s a sign Denver doesn’t yet fully trust him.
Maybe it’s time for the Broncos to take the training wheels off and let the big cowboy from Montana ride. Why not let Osweiler take a few more chances against the Oakland Raiders on the home turf of Sports Authority Field at Mile High?
To maximize the fear factor in Kubiak’s run-first offense, a QB must leverage the rare opportunities he’s allowed to exploit defenders crowding the box with a deep throw for a quick-strike touchdown.
“It’s all part of the learning process right now,” Osweiler said. “A lot of it, what I’m learning is game situation, down and distance. What’s the score? What’s the flow of the game? Where is the ball on the field? Is it first-and-10? Is it second-and-5? There are a lot of things that factor into ‘Am I going to throw a 50-50 jump ball to maybe (Demaryius) Thomas or (Emmanuel) Sanders? Or ‘Am I going to check it down to the (running) back and get 5 yards and move on to the next down?’ “
Osweiler has been a splendid game manager.
The next discovery: Can Osweiler be something more?
Now is the time to find out if Osweiler can do more than color inside the lines and put the pedal to the metal if the Denver defense needs help to secure a victory. It’s a delicate balance between keeping a young QB in his comfort zone and allowing him to learn from mistakes, without ruining the team’s quest for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
But why wait to expand Osweiler’s role? A cold day in January during the playoffs would be a bad time to ask if the Broncos need Manning to come off the bench and bail them out.
Mark Kiszla: mkiszla@denverpost.com or @markkiszla
