Q. Why is this a big deal?
A. The weapon test, if confirmed, could mean North Korea is on a path to possessing a bomb of far greater destructive power than the types it detonated in three previous underground tests, in 2006, 2009 and 2013. So if the North Koreans were to field such a weapon, known as a thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb, then it could raise the stakes in a long-running struggle to reunite the Korean peninsula under its own terms. That, in turn, would force tough decisions on the United States, which has a treaty obligation to defend South Korea — with nuclear weapons if necessary.
On the other hand, North Korea is believed to possess a number of atomic bombs and is developing longer-range missiles to deliver nuclear warheads.
Q. Might the North Koreans be bluffing?
A. That’s a possibility. White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Wednesday that early U.S. analysis of the underground explosion is “inconsistent” with the North’s announcement that it conducted a successful hydrogen bomb test.
Private analysts also expressed doubts about Pyongyang’s declaration.
Q. Is it reasonable to think the North Koreans could have graduated to the technical skill required to build a hydrogen bomb?
A. One way of looking at that is to compare how long it took other nuclear powers to move from the atom bomb to the hydrogen bomb. For the United States, which was first in both cases, it took 87 months, or more than seven years, to go from its first atomic bomb test in 1945 to its first hydrogen bomb test in 1952. It took China 32 months, or less than three years. North Korea has been working on this for at least 10 years.
Q: Why now?
A: It’s Kim Jong Un’s birthday on Friday — probably his 33rd, although it could be his 32nd, such is the paucity of our knowledge about the “Great Successor” — so the launch could be an early gift for him. The birthdays of leaders in North Korea are always celebrated with a lot of fanfare, although this was more true of Kim Il Sung, the founding president and the current leader’s grandfather, and of Kim Jong Il, the second in the dynasty.
More likely this is all about preparing for the much-awaited Seventh Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party in May, the first in 36 years.
