Russia’s plan to withdraw forces from Syria is sending a strong message to President Bashar Assad, whose hard-line stance is diverging from Moscow’s interest in declaring its intervention in the country a success while also accelerating peace efforts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, having dramatically turned the tide of war in Assad’s favor with five months of intense bombardment of his foes, is pressuring the Syrian leader to engage them in more meaningful dialogue in talks that have begun in Geneva.
“There was an overlap in interests in the last few months. Now they (the Russians) are telling Assad, ‘This is where we start to diverge, and you’ve got to step up to your responsibilities; you can’t rely on us forever,’ ” said Maha Yahya, acting director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
With an announcement that appeared to take even senior Russian commanders by surprise, Putin on Tuesday ordered most of the estimated 3,000 to 6,000 personnel to begin withdrawing from Syria, a step that raised hopes for progress at newly reconvened U.N.-brokered peace talks in Geneva.
At a televised meeting Monday with his foreign and defense ministers, Putin said Moscow’s intervention had fulfilled its objectives by allowing Assad’s military to “radically” turn the tide of war. He added that the move should help serve as a stimulus for Syria’s political talks.
Russia in September deployed its air force to Syria to prop up Assad’s faltering military, which has been waging a five-year war against internal opponents and jihadist terrorists.
Although its stated goal was to fight the Islamic State group and other terrorists, much of the Russian campaign has targeted mainstream rebels and helped eject them from core areas considered strategic for Assad’s survival, thereby safeguarding Moscow’s interests in the country.
While the operation has restored momentum for Assad’s forces, Syrian forces have been unable to regain areas in Idlib province in the north or completely encircle rebels in the contested city of Aleppo, for instance.
The timing of the Russian withdrawal, just as peace talks were resuming, offered Putin an opportune moment to declare the bulk of Moscow’s involvement to be over, while acting as a peacemaker and helping ease tensions with NATO member Turkey and the Gulf monarchies vexed by the Kremlin’s military action.
By also pacifying the opposition, Putin has set up the groundwork for what is shaping up to be the best opportunity so far to advance the talks between the two sides.
As Assad’s forces regained momentum, Assad has taken a more hard-line position, saying he will continue fighting until he recaptures every inch of Syrian territory.
“For Assad, this is a very long-term fight. I don’t think it’s a fight that Putin necessarily wants his country to be part of. This is not his Vietnam,” Yahya said.
Syrian president bashar assad
As his forces regained momentum, Assad has taken a more hard-line position, saying he will continue fighting until he recaptures every inch of Syrian territory.
Russian president vladimir putin
Having dramatically turned the tide of war in Assad’s favor with five months of intense bombardment of his foes, Putin is pressuring Syria to accelerate peace talks.
