The Nuggets’ expected NBA draft experience can best be illustrated by a tree with a thousand branches.
Almost anything can happen, and as the NBA served notice on a busy Wednesday of trades, anything will. With that as the backdrop, these, in a pure drafting sense, are the most available scenarios to the Nuggets on Thursday’s NBA draft (5 p.m., ESPN).
Trading up. The Nuggets are in the market for shooting, and that list begins with Kentucky guard Jamal Murray. If their intel tells them he will not drop to them at No. 7, the first of their three first-round picks, then moving up is a must. In that respect, the most obvious trade-up partners are the Boston Celtics, who own the third pick, or Phoenix, which owns the fourth pick in the draft.
Boston has reportedly called about a half dozen players in the league already with no luck. The Nuggets weren’t on that list, but Boston has been interested in dealing for versatile forward Danilo Gallinari in the past. Could a package of Gallo and the seventh pick net them the third pick? That might be too much for the Nuggets’ blood, but at least the conversation is now going.
That brings us to the next, most important point: Draft picks, in this draft, have reduced value. There’s just no obvious all-star caliber players beyond the first two picks – and thatap if you believe the first two (LSU’s Ben Simmons and Duke’s Brandon Ingram) are surefire future all-stars. Thatap going to give the sellers a leg up in any negotiations, particularly if the team is Chicago, who has been hounded about shooting guard Jimmy Butler; Cleveland (Kevin Love); Utah (Gordon Hayward); etc.
The team giving up the star player has to ask itself if the draft pick – or picks – coming back will net them a player (or players) that are good enough to replace the talent going out now or at any point ever.
The short answer for every pick after the first two is, probably not.
So, if the team is the Nuggets or anyone else, the negotiations will be tough, if not impossible. In the days leading up to Thursday, the Celtics couldn’t give away the third pick. If they can’t move that one, how much more difficult must it be to deal No. 7? The cost this year is likely to be more than in most other draft years. The Nuggets and everyone else will have to come to grips with that or stay on the trading sidelines.
In addition to Boston, the Nuggets could find a potential trading partner in Phoenix. The Suns are in dire need of front court help, and the Nuggets have a surplus of front court players. That list begins with Kenneth Faried, who has never been far away from trade speculation and who continues to garner interest around the league.
Trading out for a veteran. Again, difficult to do while maximizing value in the current environment.
Trading for a second lottery pick. There’s not a ton of evidence that suggests the Nuggets like two lottery-caliber players so much that they would be willing to add a second lottery selection. But teams like Atlanta, which acquired the 12th pick in the draft after trading point guard Jeff Teague, is looking to move the pick. The Nuggets could add a shooter early, and then add rim protection a bit later in making that kind of move.
Given the construction of the roster, not moving anywhere and using all three picks – No. 7, No. 15 and No. 19 – is not an ideal situation. But the Nuggets might be forced into it if deals fall through. Remember, last year there were no draft night deals at all, so general managers getting cold feet is not unprecedented.
Itap just not likely the Nuggets will be one of them.
