The Avalanche’s next big game is the April 29 NHL draft lottery in Toronto.
Colorado can draft no lower than fourth in the first round.
The Avalanche has the best chance of the 15 teams involved in the lottery at landing the No. 1 overall pick for the June 23-24 draft, but according to the NHL it’s “only” 18.0 percent. There are three lottery draws for the top three picks — 1, 2 and 3 in order — and the odds will change for the final two draws depending on the results.
Unfortunately for the Avalanche, this year’s No. 1 pick at least at this point isn’t expected to yield the sort of “generational” talent it did in 2015, when Connor McDavid went to Edmonton; and in 2016, when Phoenix-area native Auston Matthews went to Toronto. McDavid won the NHL scoring title this season, while Matthews had 40 goals, tied for second behind Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby with Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov.
The NHL Tuesday released its Central Scouting final rankings of draft-eligible prospects, and Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick remained the No. 1-rated skater among those playing in North America. Swiss forward Nico Hischier, who plays for the Halifax Mooseheads, was No. 2. (Unless otherwise noted, all teams mentioned here are major junior franchises playing under the Canadian Hockey League umbrella, in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, the Western Hockey League or the Ontario Hockey League.)
The 6-foot-2, 198-pound Patrick — the son of Steve Patrick, who played 250 NHL games with the Sabres, Rangers and Nordiques — had 20 goals and 26 assists for Brandon this season, playing only 33 games because of injury. In three seasons with the Wheat Kings, he had 91 goals and 113 assists in 160 games. Hischier piled up 38 goals in 57 games in his first season of major junior with the Mooseheads.
The next three, in order, were centers Casey Mittelstadt, from Minnesota’s Eden Prairie High School; Gabriel Vilardi of the Windsor Spitfires; and Michael Rasmussen of the Tri-City Americans.
The top-rated defenseman, at No. 9, was Cale Makar, who plays Junior-A for the Brooks Bandits of the Alberta Junior Hockey League. Callan Foote of the Kelowna Rockets, the Denver-raised son of former Avalanche standout Adam Foote, was the third-rated defenseman, at No. 12 overall.
The top two-ranked European skaters are forwards Russian Klim Kostin of Dynamo Moscow and Swede Elias Pettersson of Timra.
Two incoming freshman for the national champion Denver Pioneers are draft-eligible and listed in the Central Scouting rankings. Defenseman Ian Mitchell of Spruce Grove in the AJHL is rated No. 35 among North American skaters. Goaltender Dayton Rasmussen of the United States Hockey League’s Chicago Steel was the No. 6 North American goalie. Rasmussen was raised in Minnesota, but is a product of the Denver-area Colorado Thunderbirds program.
In 2013, the Avalanche finished 29th overall in the league, then won the lottery to leapfrog the league-worst Florida Panthers and end up with the No. 1 overall choice, which Colorado used to select the Mooseheads’ Nathan MacKinnon, who scored 24 goals as a rookie and won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year. But he hasn’t had a breakout year since, getting 14, 21 and 17 goals in the past three seasons.
The other three top possibilities for the 2017 top pick are the Vancouver Canucks, who lost their final eight games to sink to 29th in the league (12.1 percent) and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and Arizona Coyotes (both 10.3 percent).
In addition, the other 11 non-playoff teams all have chances to land the top pick, ranging from the New Jersey Devils at 8.5 percent to the New York Islanders (0.9 percent).
The following information on the top prospects comes from the NHL.
NORTH AMERICA SKATERS
1, NOLAN PATRICK, C, Brandon Wheat Kings
Height, weight: 6-2, 198
Age: 18
Director of NHL Central Scouting Dan Marr: “He has proven over the last three years that he is the real deal and will be an impact NHL player. The poise, the presence, the attention to detail, the way he processes and executes plays — everything has been far more precise, far more accurate and a lot quicker this season.”
2, NICO HISCHIER, C, Halifax Mooseheads
6-0 3/4, 176
Age: 18
The previous highest-draft spot for a Swiss player was when the New York Islanders took Nino Niederreiter (now with Minnesota) at No. 5 in 2010. The Avalanche has one other Swiss player already, winger Sven Andrighetto.
Hischier was the QMJHL’s rookie of the year this season.
Marr: “Hischier is definitely worth the price of admission. He has a high skill level, but what’s most impressive is the way he competes, his drive and work ethic. He is … first on the forecheck forcing a turnover and when the play transitions, he’s the first player back. He’s in that category as a special player.”
3, CASEY MITTELSTADT, C, Eden Prairie (Minn.) High School
6-0 3/4, 201
Age: 18
Middelstadt was Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey this season, scoring 21 goals in 25 games for Eden Prairie. He also had 13 goals in 24 games for the USHL’s Green Bay Gamblers.
Marr: “Middelstadt is one of these anomalies that come along every few years [from high school hockey]. We’ve watched him play against his piers in international tournaments and have seen him in the USHL and various camps, and he always makes a difference. It doesn’t really matter where he plays because you get the same game from him no matter the environment.”
4, GABRIEL VILARDI, C, Windsor Spitfires
6-2 3/4, 201
Age: 17
Vilardi had 46 goals in 111 games for Windsor the past two seasons.
Marr: “Vilardi is a high-end possession center with excellent hockey sense and puck-handling ability. He plays a very composed game with the puck, using his vision and playmaking ability to influence the game in all three zones. Vilardi excels below the dots in the offensive zone, where he utlilizes his size and reach to control the play and generate scoring opportunities.”
5, MICHAEL RASMUSSEN, C, Tri-City Americans
6-5 3/4, 215
Age: 17
From Surrey, B.C., Rasmussen had 50 goals in 114 games with the Americans, first joining them for one game in 2014-15.
Marr: “He’s playing with so much more confidence this season. He’s adapted to playing a bigger role and playing heavy minutes against opponents’ top lines and defense. The game has slowed down for him a little bit and he’s just that much more poised. He can take that extra bit of time and understands he can take that time to make plays and score goals.”
6, CODY GLASS, C, Portland Winterhawks
6-1 3/4, 178
Age: 18
7, OWEN TIPPETT, RW, Mississauga Steelheads
6-0 1/2, 200
Age: 18
8, ELI TOLVANEN, RW, Sioux City Musketeers, USHL
5-10 1/4, 175
Age: 17
9, CALE MAKAR, D, Brooks Bandits, AJHL
5-11 1/4, 180
Age: 18
10, NICK SUZUKI, Owen Sound Attack
5-10 3/4, 183
Age: 17
11, JUUSO VALIMAKI, D, Tri-City Americans
6-1 3/4, 204
Age: 18
12, CALLAN FOOTE, D, Kelowna Rockets
6-3 3/4, 212
Age: 18
INTERNATIONAL SKATERS
1, KLIM KOSTIN, C/LW, Dynamo Moscow
6-3, 196
Age: 17
2, ELIAS PETTERSSON, C, Timra (Sweden’s second division)
6-2, 161
Age: 18
3, LIAS ANDERSSON, C, HV 71 (Sweden)
5-11 1/4, 198
Age: 18
4, MIRO HEISKANEN, D, HIFK (Finland)
6-0, 170
Age: 17
5, MARTIN NECAS, C, BRNO (Czech Republic)
6-0 1/2, 167
Age: 18
NORTH AMERICAN GOALTENDERS
1, JAKE OETTINGER, Boston University
6-4, 212
Age: 18
2, KEITH PETRUZELLI, Muskegon Lumberjacks, USHL
6-5 1/4, 180
Age: 18
3, IAN SCOTT, Prince Albert Raiders
6-3 1/4, 172
Age: 18
4, MICHAEL DiPIETRO, Windsor Spitfires
6-0, 200
Age: 17
5, STUART SKINNER, Lethbridge Broncos
6-3 1/4, 205
Age: 18
6, DAYTON RASMUSSEN, Chicago Steel, USHL (Incoming DU freshman from Minnesota and the Colorado Thunderbirds)
6-1 1/2, 203
Age: 18
INTERNATIONAL GOALIES
1, UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN, HPK Jr. (Finland)
6-4 1/4, 196
Age: 18
2, OLLE ERIKSSON EK, Farejstad Jr. (Sweden)
6-2 1/2, 183
Age: 17
