is the franchise cornerstone of the . As the 2017 NBA free agency period kicks off tonight, team personnel will look to improve the talent level surrounding their prized big man.
But have you ever wondered just how good the 22-year-old Serbian might be in the future? How does he project five years down the line, when he’s expected to be in his prime?
According to advanced analytics, Jokic has star written all over him. A fat paycheck will be in store, too.
— an algorithm that identifies similar players in modern NBA history and uses them to project the future of current players— forecasts Jokic to be in the “All-Star” category in five years with a $281.3 million market value. Charles Barkley (1986), Shawn Kemp (1993) and Kevin Love (2012) are notables among the players in history deemed most comparable to “The Joker.”
Age is most important for determining a player’s future career in the algorithm. The player’s height, weight, draft position and statistics — the weighted average over the player’s three most recent NBA seasons with the latest one considered most heavily — are also critical in the CARMELO projection.
The system runs a profile for past NBA players heading into a season with the same age as the player being analyzed (In Jokic’s case, all players heading into a season at age 22). It then identifies the most similar ones on a scale of 1 to 100, 100 being most similar.
The player’s top 10 comparables are on the CARMELO card. Greg Monroe (2013), currently of the , has the highest similarity value to Jokic at 29. Kemp, Love and Barkley have similarity values to Jokic at 23, 19, and 16 respectively.
2017-18 will be Jokic’s third season in the NBA after being drafted 41st overall in 2014.
