Staring intently at the computer models spewing what some call a myriad of “spaghetti plots,” the scientists at the are among the first to predict just how serious a developing storm like Hurricane Florence might be.
Compiling data from a variety of sources, the high-resolution models quickly predict if east-coasters will have to merely batten down the hatches or head for the hills.
Their work is largely research, the early stages of what eventually becomes leading-edge climatology at other nationwide and the National Weather Service.
“It nailed the Harvey forecast,” said Theo Stein, a spokesman for NOAA’s , where the experimental is located, phonetically called “HERR.” “Every hour it ingests a boat-load of data, constantly forecasting with the latest data, but itap only a 36-hour window and only in the continental U.S.”
That means, for now, the predictions that will tighten with each moment Hurricane Florence moves toward landfall aren’t expected to begin until about 8 p.m. Wednesday.
Their work helps the NWS issue its own predictions, warnings and other pertinent information. Itap educated guesswork that gets smarter with each passing storm.
In the meantime, NOAA’s other experimental giant, the Finite-Volume on a Cubed-Sphere – or FV3 – is banging away to help forecast hurricanes so accurately that residents of impacted areas can be given warnings sooner than has previously seemed possible.“The FV3 is the foundation of the next generation NOAA forecast global model,” Stein said. “It has produced some storm-track projections for this storm, Florence, that compare really well to the European model.”
Early reports say that model, known as the and one of the premier global forecasting units, is having its own troubles figuring out what Florence is going to do, with landfall predictions “windshield-wiping” between North Carolina and South Carolina.
Up the road from the Boulder facility, in the northeast sector of the Colorado State University campus in Fort Collins, sits a team of scientists known for their annual predictions of what we can expect from each hurricane season. It’s a team within the Department of Atmospheric Science that often simplifies its predictions to a pair of events: El Niño and La Niña.
When El Niño is active — warm water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean — the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be less active. The reverse is true when La Niña is the case.
This year’s hurricane report, which in April predicted 2018’s season would be above-average, is most after a number of weather factors and data are compiled and studied. This year’s early forecast was eventually tempered to one of below-average predictions, or a pretty tepid hurricane season.
Then Florence showed up.
“We were monitoring the storm carefully last week with the knowledge that the conditions were very favorable for considerable strengthening and a landfall along the East Coast,” said Matthew Rogers with CSU’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. “All the right conditions were seen in the cards last week: very warm water; a lack of what we call ‘wind shear,’ or strong changes in wind speed and direction as you go up in the atmosphere; and the right meteorological conditions to steer Florence’s movement. Thatap when forecasters started paying serious attention to Florence.”
On her tail, though still far at sea, is .
“Hurricane Florence, this is a very dangerous, life-threatening storm that will not only bring damaging winds to the Carolina coast, but will also dump massive amounts of precipitation as the storm slows down and lingers over the Carolinas and Virginia over the weekend,” Rogers said.
The institute works hand-in-hand with NOAA, sporting a tropical-research group that develops new experimental hurricane tracking products.
CSU researchers have annually predicted the upcoming storm season since 1984. This year’s forecast predicted at least one of the nine named storms after Aug. 1 would be a major one, of Category 3 or higher.
“So far, the 2018 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1968, 1986, 1993, 1994 and 2002,” the report says.
But if some of the forecasters are to be believed, we may never see another Hurricane Florence.
Thatap not for the unlikelihood that its damaging winds and rain won’t be matched or surpassed – itap inevitable that they will be – but more for the chances that its destruction will ensure the name is retired to the ages.
If not, chances are we’ll see another Hurricane Florence, already a Category 4 storm, or her lesser counterpart, Tropical Storm Florence, in 2024 when her name comes around again.
, a process that originated in 1953 by the National Hurricane Center and maintained by the World Meteorological Organization, comes from a that remain unchanged until the worst happens.
Thatap why we’ll never see another hurricane named Harvey, Irma, Marie or Nate. , having wreaked enough havoc and destruction that no one ever wants to hear them uttered again. Same with Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
In all, there have been 86 names retired since 1954. The first was Carol, a Category 3 storm that caused $462 million in damage – roughly $4.3 billion in today’s dollars.
By contrast, , which slammed into Texas last year, racked up a $125 billion tab, tied with Katrina as the costliest on record.
