So, this is it: 656 days after former state Sen. Mike Johnston essentially kicked off the 2018 election cycle by announcing his gubernatorial bid, we have less than a week left until ballots are counted.
The next six days are going to go by fast. Here’s what campaigns are up to — much of which Denver Post journalists will be covering:
- The Democrats are dominating at barnstorming the state. Tweet after tweet after tweet shows big crowds for the statewide bus tour headlined by gubernatorial candidate Jared Polis. The bus tour, which kicked off on the Western Slope, wraps up this weekend in the metro area with a focus on turning out communities of color. There will also be a stop at Broncos Stadium at Mile High for a tailgate party.
- Meanwhile, Republican gubernatorial candidate Walker Stapleton has been hustling, too. Today, he’s planning stops from Grand Junction to Greeley on a tour by plane with U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner. On Saturday, his campaign says he will zip up and down Interstate 25, with stops planned from Fort Collins to Elbert County.
- Republican Rep. Mike Coffman is closing out his campaign for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District at church. Rather than knock on doors, the incumbent Aurora Republican plans to attend religious services at different houses of worship in his district.
- His challenger, Democrat Jason Crow, has packed his schedule with get out the vote rallies, door knocking and phone calls aimed at securing every last vote he can. In the past Coffman has overperformed the polls and defeated five Democratic challengers, so Crow’s campaign says they’re taking nothing for granted.
A programing note of our own: This is our last newsletter before the election. But you can stay up to date with all the news in our Also, next week’s Spot will be delivered first thing Wednesday with the latest results and exclusive analysis.
As always, please encourage your friends and colleagues to to The Spot! And if you’re already receiving The Spot, take the next step and become a . Your monthly subscriptions help keep the news coming!
See you on the campaign trail! — Nic
Democrats — and some Republicans — are courting the Latino vote. Here’s how.
An immigrant rights group led a major push to get more Latinos to vote in this election last week. Itap just one example of how Democrats are hoping to reverse a nationwide trend of low Latino participation during midterm elections. Continue reading here
Countdown
5 days until Election Day.
Your political must-reads
- Two new polls suggest Polis is heading to the governor’s mansion. Denver Post
- What would happen if the Democrats take total control of state government? Denver Post
- Gov. John Hickenlooper, in a New Hampshire diner, said he’s running for president, … and then said he hadn’t made up his mind yet. Denver Post
- Will Colorado educators who were politically invigorated by last spring’s teacher walkouts help push through a major statewide tax increase for schools and usher candidates from within their own ranks into office? Denver Post
- Some 50 fire districts across Colorado are asking voters for a workaround to the Gallagher Amendment. “We’re way past the crisis point,” West Metro Fire Chief Don Lombardi said. Denver Post
- Colorado voters are getting bombarded with millions of dollars more in last-minute outside spending. Denver Post
- In Colorado, women decide close elections. Denver Post
- In waning days on the campaign trail, AG candidates duke it out over outside ads.
- FiveThirtyEight says Colorado’s state elections are one of the most important nobody is paying attention to.
- Can Colorado save America? This writer hopes so.
- Here’s a look at the yawning divide that explains American politics.
- A dozen young people explain why they aren’t voting in the midterm election.
- Peggy Noonan: Politicians in both parties need to clean up their own side of the street.
- As former President Barack Obama crisscrosses the country in support of Democratic candidates, nerves are rattling among his coalition. Do they fight fire with fire?
Campaign Diary
Ballot tracker: “Stunning” returns from unaffiliated voters
About one-third of Colorado’s 3.2 million voters have returned their ballots as of Thursday morning, according to the Secretary of State’s office. And while we need to be careful about extrapolating anything from the returns, there is one data point that caught our eye from .
While unaffiliated voters have returned fewer ballots than either Democrats or Republicans, they have returned more ballots than either party compared to this point in time during our last midterm election. Unaffiliated voters have returned nearly 67,000 more ballots this cycle. Democrats have returned about 43,000 more ballots than 2014. Meanwhile, Republicans have returned 51,000 fewer ballots.
“Itap stunning,” said David Flaherty, Magellan’s CEO.
While this trend has never been seen before in Colorado, Flaherty said it might not be too surprising given the rise in unaffiliated voter registration.
“They’ve been growing,” he said. “And they’re staying unaffiliated longer into their older age groups. The story of the 2018 election might be that the unaffiliated voters are making their voices heard.”
As for the dismal returns from the GOP, Flaherty said: “Are they sitting on the ballots? Perhaps. There’s a lot of pressure in turnout on the GOP side to shore that up. You just can’t ignore that. Itap tough to win as a Republican if those trends hold.”
What’s on the minds of Colorado voters?
Denver Post multimedia producer Amy Brothers and I stopped by a Jefferson County sports bar to ask voters what issues mattered most to them. .
Finally, a public poll in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, but you probably shouldn’t read too much into it
By Anna Staver
on the race to represent Colorado’s Western Slope in Congress shows Republican Rep. Scott Tipton defeating Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush by 15 points. But there’s a big “but.”
The poll from Change Research was conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 29 and showed voters re-electing Tipton 53 percent to 38 percent.
If Change Research is right about Colorado’s Third Congressional District, then Tipton would essentially be repeating his 2016 election night performance in which he defeated his Democratic challenger 55 to 40 percent. And he would perform 3 points better in 2018 than President Donald Trump did in the district in 2016.
Here’s that but: The poll didn’t verify that the people it surveyed — largely through social media — were actually registered voters in the district. The company relied on the people taking the survey to self-report their registration. Another problem is that 39 percent of respondents said they were Republican, well above the 34 percent of registered Republicans in the 3rd.
“We need innovation in polling, and they are trying something new, and I think thatap good thing,” Global Strategy Group Senior Vice President Andrew Baumann said. “But any poll that doesn’t match the people to the voter rolls should be taken with several grains of salt.”
The nightmare before Election Day
The Polis for Colorado staff had some Halloween fun dressing up as their boss. The crew donned Polis’ signature tucked-in Polo shirt and tennis shoes. Some wore ties. The campaign out the photo on Halloween, encouraging followers to cast their votes.
The Stapleton campaign and his GOP allies had their own approach to Halloween on Wednesday. Stapleton tweeted: “Congressman Polis as our next Governor? Thatap scary!” And in an email to reporters, a GOP spokesman called Polis’ health care proposal “hocus pocus,” and included this gif from the best Halloween movie ever created:
Gardner’s favorability rating is lower than Trump’s
Earlier today, we reported on two new polls out on the governor’s race. Buried in one of the polls is a number that we want to highlight here: 11. Thatap spread between Sen. Cory Gardner’s favorability rating and President Donald Trump’s among Colorado Republicans. That means Gardner, who has attempted to portray himself as a moderate voice in Trump’s Washington, is less popular among his own political base. Yes, itap just one poll, but coupled with other evidence of Trump’s stronghold on the GOP it makes you wonder whether Colorado’s brand of conservatism Gardner symbolizes has much of a future.
Oil and gas to Colorado: “”
Colorado journalists and the public learned Wednesday that the big money behind the No on 112 committee is holding its Election Night party at the Hyatt Regency. But no media will be allowed in. Tim Wieland, CBS4’s new director, said it best on Twitter:
A moment of civility on Colorado’s campaign trail
The political rhetoric has been heating up across America. And the rash of attempted assassinations on Democratic leaders and the mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue certainly didn’t help. Thatap what makes this moment captured on Twitter between state Rep. Jeff Bridges, and his opponent for an Arapahoe County seat in the statehouse, Toren Mushovic, much more meaningful.
