Ray Haynes is an optimistic man these days, and he has Colorado’s legislature to thank for that.
The former Republican lawmaker from California now works for National Popular Vote, the leading advocacy group for a growing movement to shift America’s method for electing presidents away from the Electoral College and toward a popular vote.
“We intend to pursue this until it happens. The only question is, when will it happen? Will it happen by 2020? We have an opportunity for it to occur by 2020 but I’m not guaranteeing anything here,” he said.
The 13-year-old movement to persuade state legislatures to adopt a popular vote, which sometimes went years without wins, gained a significant momentum bump last month when Colorado lawmakers approved a bill, along party lines, to enter into a national popular vote compact. Gov. Jared Polis is expected to sign it, though a bill signing has not been scheduled.
“I’ve not felt this kind of urgency and this kind of momentum in the last five years, to be real blunt,” Haynes said. “Colorado’s just step No. 1. I think you’ll see, by the end of this year, that the bill has true momentum. We’re starting to see the finish line.”
For the compact to take effect, states representing 270 electoral votes, a nationwide majority, must approve of the change. When Polis signs the Colorado bill, that number will stand at 181. Whether the movement can pass in states representing the remaining 89 electoral votes is an unanswered question.
Tara Ross, author of two books on the Electoral College, says its demise or diminishment is far from inevitable. Misunderstanding about its role exists, but debates over the Electoral College in places like Colorado lead more people to educate themselves about America’s electoral system – and support the status quo, she says.
“The national popular vote effort is misguided, but I’m happy that it has prompted more Americans to educate themselves about our unique presidential election system,” Ross said.
Gaming out the possible path to 270 electoral votes – just as presidential contenders do every four years – can resemble a parlor game of sorts. But this much is clear: no path will be easy.
With Colorado, a dozen states and the District of Columbia, will have joined the popular vote compact. In 10 other states representing 81 electoral votes, a popular vote bill has passed at least one legislative chamber in the past dozen years.
But even if those 10 states ultimately passed the bill, another eight electoral votes would be needed. And it stands virtually no chance in battleground states that currently enjoy a disproportionate amount of attention from presidential candidates trying to win them over.
“There’s no question that there are some swing states – take Florida and Ohio as the best examples – that benefit from the current system,” Haynes acknowledged.
The popular vote has also fared poorly in staunchly Republican states and in the South, where no state has signed on. While there is anecdotal evidence of GOP support elsewhere, Colorado’s bill failed to garner a single Republican vote, and critics of the popular vote say its bipartisanship is grossly overstated. Of the 38 states that haven’t joined the popular vote compact, 30 have Republican-controlled legislatures.
“While more states need to join before the compact can take effect, Democrats pushing similar legislation in state legislatures across the country makes the threat of Colorado losing our electoral votes all too real,” said Jeff Hays, chairman of the Colorado GOP. “We will pursue every electoral and legal means available to fight against this misguided effort to silence Colorado voters.”
One electoral means would be a ballot question to overturn the legislature’s decision. Critics of the popular vote say they have significant momentum and will begin collecting signatures after the bill becomes law. Failing that, lawsuits could challenge the compact’s constitutionality.
Haynes declined to speculate on which states could join the popular vote movement next. He says the Colorado bill moved quickly and his group didn’t have time to work with Republicans on it.
But the fact remains that every state that has joined the national popular vote compact to date voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016. Without passage in at least some Republican or swing states, it cannot be successful – just as no presidential candidate can rely solely on safely blue or red states to win an election.