When San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich got ejected 63 seconds into the game a week ago Wednesday, itap not hard to believe he had already considered a potential playoff matchup against the . Maybe he was willing to forgo a win, or at least leave the outcome up to his assistants, rather than offer one more clue as to how the Spurs might approach a playoff series against the Nuggets.
Either way, the irrational fuse he blew at the referees didn’t linger. Halfway through his friend Michael Malone’s postgame news conference, Popovich wandered in between reporters for a public moment with his buddy “Mikey.”
“What was the record, what happened?” Popovich lobbed.
“Somebody got thrown out in 63 seconds,” Malone cracked.
“Are you serious?” Popovich spewed, his sarcasm ringing through the hall. “That person must’ve hit somebody!”
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The well-timed wit drew Malone’s biggest smile of the season, a window into the reverence he has for the legendary coach. Exactly one week later, by virtue of Denver’s win over Minnesota and San Antonio’s win over Dallas, Malone’s Nuggets secured a playoff chess match against the Grand Master.
After 53 playoff series, maybe Popovich knew what he was doing all along.
Season series (2-2)
Backcourt
Itap a cruel bit of irony that Colorado product Derrick White has assumed the reins of the Spurs offense. The rangy point guard has excellent size, plays tough, physical defense and is a savvy game manager for someone in his first year running the show. He and his backcourt partner, Bryn Forbes, another Spurs project, thrive in the high pick-and-roll game and both can hit from outside. White loves to get downhill and into the lane where he can either score among the trees or dish it to any number of Spurs shooters.
As solid as White and Forbes have been, there’s a sizable gap between them and and . Murray, Denver’s fiery point guard, has the ability to blaze from outside or unhinge a defense with his soft floater in the lane. After , Murray is the Nuggets’ second-most dangerous player. Harris, who’s struggled with his shooting, started to turn a corner over the last three games. In that time he’s averaged over 15 points on 52 percent shooting from the field. More important, he’s shown an explosion to the rim that wasn’t there due to lingering injuries earlier this season.
Edge: Nuggets
Frontcourt
Would you believe that developing under the watchful eye of the Spurs organization has unleashed one of DeMar DeRozan’s most productive seasons? He’s averaging over 21 points per game to go along with career-highs in rebounds (6) and assists (6.2). His slippery mid-range game is always a tough cover for either Harris or and limiting his unobstructed looks is vital to containing San Antonio’s offense. He averaged 20 points on 54 percent shooting in the four games against the Nuggets this season. LaMarcus Aldridge is the other pillar of San Antonio’s offense, and he’s proven equally thorny. He posted 22 points and six rebounds on nearly 56 percent shooting from the field against Denver. will likely draw the cover on Aldridge, but if the Spurs play him and Rudy Gay simultaneously, that leaves Jokic to chase San Antonio’s big man around the midrange. Center Jakob Poeltl was the other piece San Antonio acquired in its blockbuster deal for Kawhi Leonard. He’ll likely draw the early defensive assignment against Jokic.
Nikola Jokic’s body of work against the Spurs this season is impressive. Overall, he’s flirted with triple-double averages against them on almost 70 percent shooting, and in three of the four games he’s made a huge impact. But in their first matchup, he was limited because the Spurs threw double teams in his direction and forced the ball out of his hands. Another curious wrinkle is that of the 30 teams, Jokic averages his second-fewest free-throw attempts against the Spurs at just 1.3 per game. Whether itap the Spurs not taking cheap fouls or the refs not respecting the physicality of Jokic’s game, he can’t let that frustration build. Will Barton and Millsap’s defense are going to be integral to stopping the Spurs. Barton can’t lose track of the Spurs’ catalog of 3-point shooters, and Millsap must make Aldridge feel him on defense.
Edge: Even
Bench
Between Marco Belinelli, Patty Mills and Davis Bertans, the Spurs have their fair share of guys that will make you pay if there’s a missed defensive assignment or a lazy closeout. All three shoot at least 37 percent from the 3-point line. The Spurs don’t take a ton of 3-pointers, but they have the best shooting percentage in the league from beyond the arc at 39 percent.
This is going to be a huge series for , , and . Beasley is going to be counted on to infuse the second unit with clutch shooting, Morris is vital to stabilizing any shaky offense, and Plumlee’s effort on the glass and on defense will never yield. I think Craig is going to be given a huge responsibility in bottling up San Antonio’s wings.
Edge: Nuggets
X-Factor
Derrick White barely played in San Antonio’s first-round loss to Golden State last year. He’s become a steady game manager with fantastic length and good instincts on both ends. White averaged 2.3 steals in the four games against Denver, and if he flusters Murray, he could force Malone’s hand in giving Morris more minutes. He filled in seamlessly after Spurs PG Dejounte Murray was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the preseason.
Gary Harris has the ability to transform the Nuggets’ offense. He can hit from outside, bolt downhill off of screens and attack the rim off the bounce. Itap his health thatap been the question of late, but there have been signs that his body is feeling better. Adding him to the two-pronged attack of Murray and Jokic stretches defenses even thinner and should allow Jokic to battle his matchup straight up. He’s also going to draw the task of being DeRozan’s shadow.
Edge: Nuggets
Coaching
When Malone cracked that Popovich had five championship rings and all he had was a wedding ring, it was a stark reminder of the sizable gap in their postseason resumes. That gap has no bearing on the talent divide in this series. Like Malone, Popovich has crafted and empowered reliable players out of guys who were overlooked. Forbes, a 42 percent 3-point shooter, and White, the 29th pick in the draft, qualify. The other staple of a Pop team is that it doesn’t beat itself. The Spurs lead the NBA with just 12.1 turnovers per game.
In terms of preparation, Malone can’t do much better than having served as an assistant on the Cavaliers during ’ first go-round in Cleveland. He was then with New Orleans and later the Warriors when they, coincidentally, beat the Nuggets and lost to the Spurs in the 2013 playoffs. This is Malone’s first opportunity to lead a team as head coach into the playoffs. The amount of trust his players have in him bodes well if this series turns dicey.
Edge: San Antonio
