Game Plan
When the Buffs run
CU’s commitment to the run game under offensive coordinator Jay Johnson is non-negotiable. The Buffs repeatedly pounded the rock against Nebraska, even as they struggled for gains (37 carries, 89 yards). It’s hard to deny the results: a worn-down Husker defense that couldn’t even muster an effort to tackle Jaren Mangham on his 7-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter. Can CU’s relentless run game gas the Falcons — fellow high-altitude inhabitants coming off a bye week — the same way? Edge: Buffs
When the Buffs pass
Which Steven Montez shows up Saturday? The one who squeezed the air out of the ball in the first half against the Huskers? Or the one who delivered a deep throw in the fourth quarter so pristine that he had his hands raised before K.D. Nixon even converted it into a 96-yard flea-flicker touchdown? If it’s the latter, the Falcons don’t have the athletes to match a Buffs receiving corps that’s had little trouble taking advantage of opponents’ fixation on Laviska Shenault. Edge: Buffs
When the Falcons run
Once ubiquitous among college football’s elite, the triple-option is now the curveball everyone sees coming, but still can’t hit. Throughout fall camp, the Buffs spent blocks of practice preparing for it. This is the one Saturday when you can’t forget about the fullback, and everyone must be accounted for. Quarterback Donald Hammond III is a master with play fakes and a problem around the goal line (12 career TDs). Good luck keying in on a ball carrier — the Falcons had five with 40-plus yards in their 48-7 rout of Colgate. Edge: Falcons
When the Falcons pass
There is a certain irony to a team named Air Force being so ground-bound. In the team’s demolition of Colgate, the Falcons threw the ball just once — for a 41-yard gain. Such is the nature of the Falcons air attack: infrequent enough that you forget about it, dangerous enough that they make you pay for it once you do. For a Buffs secondary that has given up its fair share of big plays, it’s just enough of a threat to give pause. Edge: Even
Special teams
Some unsolicited advice for the Buffs coaching staff: Include Shenault in the return game more often. The one time he got his hands on a kickoff last week, the junior took it 54 yards … before fumbling. If it comes down to the kickers, know this: 32-year-old James Steanou is unafraid of the moment, while Air Force’s Jake Koehnke is automatic inside 40 yards. Edge: Buffs
Three things to watch when CU plays Air Force
1. The fullback
We’re serious. If you missed the days when CU ran the fullback dive — and the option — with conviction, get ready for a heavy dose of nostalgia, courtesy of the Falcons’ attack. Air Force gave the ball to fullbacks Timothy Jackson (10 carries), Taven Birdow (nine) Matthew Murla (three), Omar Fattah (three) and Colton Parton (two) a combined 27 times against Colgate for 178 rushing yards.
2. Turnover margin
The end game for the Academy is to limit the Buffs’ possessions. That means killing time with theirs, especially if they have a lead. One way to mess with an option team’s Plan A is to not only stick them with third-and-forevers, but to put them in an early hole, making them throw out of desperation. Forcing turnovers, and then turning those turnovers into points the other way, is a great way to start.
3. The red zone
Remember: The Falcons are probably going to get theirs on the ground. No matter how much it drives them nuts, CU fans need to ignore the opponent rushing yards stat — keep an eye on the scoreboard instead. It doesn’t matter how many times AFA marches down the field, as long as those marches come away with three points or fewer.
Predictions
Mark Kiszla: Buffs 24, Falcons 23
After all the feels of beating Colorado State and Nebraska, this feels like a big trap game for the Buffs. Guessing they escape. But barely.
Sean Keeler: Buffs 33, Falcons 27
The Falcons could run for 300. CU could throw for 350. By the time the dust settles, this one ought to be as fun as Broncos-Bears will be excruciating.
Matt Schubert: Buffs 35, Falcons 24
Is a Big Red letdown coming? Not if Laviska Shenault, who’s ready for his breakout game, has anything to say about it.