AFC Champion Kansas City (16-2) vs. NFC Champion Tampa Bay (14-5), 4:30 p.m. MT Sunday at Raymond James Stadium, CBS, 104.3 FM
Who has the edge?
Quarterback
The greatest of all time in Tom Brady against the current best NFL quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. What a fascinating matchup of players separated in age by 18 years. Brady got away with three awful interceptions in the second half of the NFC title game, but can still throw deep and get his team out of the wrong play and into the right play. He is 6-3 all-time in the Super Bowl. As for Mahomes, the extra week should help his turf toe, allowing him to escape the expected Tampa Bay blitzes. His athleticism is marvelous — he’s able to throw off any launch point and can turn a third-and-long into a first-and-10 because of his scrambling.
Edge: Kansas City
Running backs
Itap Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones for Tampa Bay and Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Darrel Williams for Kansas City. The Buccaneers’ rushing game should go through Fournette, Jacksonville’s former first-round pick. During the postseason, he is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and his 14 catches are tied for the team lead. Jones has rushed 23 times for only 78 yards and does nothing in the passing game. Edwards-Helaire injured his groin and hamstring in Week 16 and returned for the AFC title game (six carries for seven yards). Williams has picked up the slack due to injuries to Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell (knee, missed the Buffalo win), rushing 26 times for 130 yards. Fournette’s receiving ability gives the Buccaneers an advantage.
Edge: Tampa Bay
Receivers
Does the Tampa Bay tandem of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin get the edge over Kansas City’s mostly one-man show of Tyreek Hill? Nope. Evans has two postseason touchdowns and Godwin 14 catches for 223 yards, but has also struggled with drops. An ‘X’ factor is the speedy Scotty Miller (four catches for 80 yards) — he deserves playing time even with Antonio Brown (knee) back after missing the Green Bay game. Hill has 17 catches for 282 yards (no touchdowns) in two playoff games, while no other Chiefs receiver has more than six catches. Hill is a threat all over the field and can break a big play at any time.
Edge: Kansas City
Tight ends
Travis Kelce is on his way to an all-time career for the Chiefs. He has 21 catches for 227 yards and three touchdowns in two playoff games. Even if he’s double-teamed, he runs his routes so well to get open it often appears the defense had a coverage bust. The Buccaneers’ Cameron Brate has 11 catches (one touchdown) in the playoffs. Tampa Bay play-caller Byron Leftwich must find ways to get Rob Gronkowski more opportunities (only two catches in three postseason games). He’s still too good of a receiver to use just as a decoy/pass protector.
Edge: Kansas City
Offensive line
The Buccaneers’ offensive line, led by left tackle Donovan Smith and right tackle Tristan Wirfs, has allowed only five sacks in three playoff games. Center Ryan Jensen, a Fort Morgan native, does a nice job handling big defensive tackles in the run and pass game. Tampa Bay’s running game has labored, though, averaging only 3.9 yards per attempt. But the Buccaneers get the edge because Kansas City will be without left tackle Eric Fisher (Achilles’ injury against Buffalo) and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) has been out since November.
Edge: Tampa Bay
Defensive line
The Chiefs’ Chris Jones is the best defensive lineman in the Super Bowl and one of the NFL’s best. He was limited to one tackle in the win over Buffalo, but led the team with 7 1/2 regular season sacks. Defensive ends Frank Clark and Tanoh Kpassagnon should be contained by Smith and Wirfs on the edges. Tampa Bay’s defensive line was hard to notice in the NFC title game. Ndamukong Suh couldn’t get off blocks against the Packers, Vita Vea was playing after coming off injured reserve and the rest are backups.
Edge: Kansas City
Linebackers
In Tampa Bay’s win over New Orleans, it appeared there were three versions of Devin White on the Superdome turf. He … was … everywhere. And he had 15 tackles and a fumble recovery at Green Bay. He and fellow inside linebacker Lavonte David are every-down players (all 71 snaps in the NFC title game). On the edges are pass rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul to work against the Chiefs’ backup tackles. Kansas City is led by Anthony Hitchens (eight tackles), but its defensive scheme showcases defensive backs instead of linebackers — Hitchens was the only linebacker to play more than 28 snaps against Buffalo.
Edge: Tampa Bay
Secondary
The Buccaneers have five postseason interceptions, including three by cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has great hands for a defender and good awareness. Cornerback Carlton Davis is third on the team with 17 tackles. The key will be getting safety Antonio Winfield back from an ankle injury that kept him out of the NFC title game. Kansas City has held quarterbacks to a 78.1 passer rating in the playoffs (three touchdowns, two interceptions). The Chiefs’ pass defense is led by versatile safety Tyrann Mathieu. The top three tacklers are defensive backs — Mathieu and cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward with 13 tackles apiece.
Edge: Tampa Bay
Special teams
Jaydon Mickens handles the punt/kick return duties for Tampa Bay and is averaging 21 yards on seven postseason kick returns (long of 43 yards). Punter Bradley Pinion has averaged 36.6 yards net on nine attempts, but six have landed inside the 20-yard line. Kicker Ryan Succop is 8-of-8 on field goals and 8-of-9 on extra points. The Chiefs don’t punt a lot. Kicker Harrison Butker is 4-of-5 on field goals and 6-of-7 on extra points. Mecole Hardman muffed a punt that led to a Buffalo touchdown two weeks ago, but is a capable returner.
Edge: Tampa Bay
Post Predictions
Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer — Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 23
Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul combine for four sacks and Tom Brady seals his seventh Super Bowl title by throwing a late touchdown to Rob Gronkowski.
Kyle Newman, beat writer — Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 31
Tampa Bay’s pressure keeps the lid on Patrick Mahomes for most of the day, but K.C.’s offense gets going in the second half and a late, ill-advised throw by Tom Brady is intercepted and seals the Chiefs’ repeat.
Mark Kiszla, columnist — Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 20
From our old friend Shaq Barrett to the memory of my late mom the Bucs fan, my heart is pushing me to pick Tampa. But Tom Brady is too close to midnight to win a duel with Patrick Mahomes.
Sean Keeler, columnist — Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 30
Patrick Mahomes finds a way. Patrick Mahomes always finds a way.
