Game of the week
Pittsburgh (+6 1/2) at Buffalo
A double chin-strap/rock-fight special in Orchard Park as the Steelers unveil a new offense with play-caller Matt Canada and the Bills start what they believe (rightly) is another deep run in the AFC playoffs. Josh Allen starts his MVP march with two running and passing touchdowns apiece in the Bills’ win.
Score: Bills 28, Steelers 24
Lock of the week
Cleveland at Kansas City (-6 1/2)
A rematch of last year’s AFC divisional round game won by the Chiefs. Coach Andy Reid in Week 1 since joining Kansas City in 2013 — 7-1 record and 32 points per game, including five consecutive openers of at least 34 points. The Browns will be good, but this assignment is too difficult for their revamped defense.
Score: Chiefs 37, Browns 24
Upset of the week
Jacksonville (-2 1/2) at Houston
The Texans are old and bad, but at last they’re cheap. They won’t go 0-17 because this is pro football and the first win will be over the Jaguars, who start the Urban Meyer/Trevor Lawrence Era with a reality check that 1-15 teams should never be favored in the following season’s opener.
Score: Texans 9, Jaguars 7
Around the AFC: Ready or not, three first-round quarterbacks ready to debut
Rookie QBs debut. If Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville), Zach Wilson (New York Jets) and Mac Jones (New England) start Sunday, as expected, it will mark only the second time since 1970 at least three rookie quarterbacks will start in Week 1. Five rookies started in 2012. Best chance for initial success? Jones with the Patriots because his team is simply built better defensively and in the run game. Lawrence and Wilson are in for tough sledding as their teams do floor-to-ceiling rebuilds. Among the five quarterbacks in ’12, only Russell Wilson (Seattle) and Ryan Tannehill (drafted by Miami, playing for Tennessee) remain in the league.
Bet on the Ravens. Baltimore closes Week 1 on Monday night by playing at Las Vegas as a five-point favorite. The Ravens have won five consecutive season openers by a combined score of 177-26 — 13-7 (Buffalo), 20-0 (at Cincinnati), 47-3 (Buffalo), 59-10 (at Miami) and 38-6 (Cleveland). As always, itap tough to know what to make of the Raiders, who appear to be chasing their tail in the fourth year of the second Jon Gruden regime. They will score points because of their skill-position players (tight end Darren Waller is great to watch), but new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley needs everything to go right for a turnaround.
Lindsay’s role. Old friend and Denver South/Colorado alum Phillip Lindsay debuts for Houston and it will be interesting what role he carves out for himself in the Texans’ backfield. Lindsay carried 15 times for only 33 yards (2.2-yard average) in the preseason and the team also has Mark Ingram, David Johnson and Rex Burkhead. During the preseason, Lindsay embraced Houston’s expected ball-control strategy. “Thatap a running back’s dream,” he said. “You watch these games year in and year out, the team that can control the ball is going to be the team that wins.”
Around the NFC: Andy Dalton starts for Chicago, but Justin Fields Watch begins
Saints “home” in Florida. Last month’s Hurricane Ida has sent New Orleans packing, first to Dallas for practice and now onto Jacksonville for Sunday’s “home” opener against Green Bay. It was comical to read how the Saints chose Jacksonville because it wasn’t an attractive city to visit (wrong … itap by the ocean, geniuses) and because it would be tough for fans to fly from Green Bay (wrong … Packers fans are everywhere, even in Florida, Einsteins). Typical Saints arrogance. The Packers will roll to a win. John Elway is about to fall out of the top 10 in career passing yards (51,475); Aaron Rodgers needs 231 to pass him.
Pitts set for debut. We’ll never understand not playing rookies in the preseason so they can get a feel for the tempo. Atlanta rookie tight end Kyle Pitts played only two snaps, one of which was a 27-yard catch. He is the most exciting non-quarterback to track from the first round. He has a veteran quarterback (Matt Ryan) to throw to him in tight windows and a coach/play-caller (Arthur Smith) to move him all over the formation. Pitts said Ryan is “definitely helping me. He pulls me aside and tells me small things that kind of help me in my game on and off the field. He’s a good mentor.”
Fields watch begins. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields will be Chicago’s No. 2 behind Andy Dalton Sunday night at the Rams, but the clock is ticking. Dalton has a one-year contract and general manager Ryan Pace/coach Matt Nagy are working for their jobs so the move to Fields isn’t a matter of if, but when. First up for Dalton is all-world defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Dalton said “the worst thing you can do is look over your shoulder. Understanding that is key.”
