Broncos (3-1) at Steelers (1-3)
When: 11 a.m. MT, Sunday.
Where: Heinz Field.
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/KDVR-31
Weather: Partly cloudy with a high of 78 degrees.
Broncos-Ravens series: Broncos are 15-9-1 in 25 regular-season games dating back to 1970; Steelers won 26-21 in last meeting, on Sept. 20, 2020, in Pittsburgh.
Key matchup
Javonte Williams vs Steelers’ run D
The Broncos’ rookie running back has yet to go off for a 100-yard day, but his breakout is coming… and it just may be this Sunday in Pittsburgh.
Williams had seven carries for 48 yards in last week’s loss to Baltimore, including a beastly 31-yard run in which Williams broke four tackles and required a battalion of Ravens to bring him down. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has seen that tape and said his team thinks “very highly of him.”
Pittsburgh gave Williams a hard look in this year’s draft, but ultimately selected Alabama running back Najee Harris as the first tailback off the board with the No. 24 overall pick. Williams was selected by Denver in the second round, 11 picks later.
“We looked at all of what I would describe as A- runners (in the draft), and obviously Williams was and is one of those,” Tomlin said.
While Williams’ speed and slipperiness (he leads the NFL with a forced missed tackle rate of 37%) has the Steelers’ attention, Tomlin emphasized the Steelers are “not focused specifically on him” as defensive tackle Cameron Heyward, outside linebacker T.J. Watt and inside linebacker Devin Bush lead the run stoppage against Denver.
“We have respect for both (Williams and Melvin Gordon),” Tomlin said. “We’re really just looking at the schematics of it now. Itap almost like those guys are interchangeable. We better be in our gaps, we better be square. We have to do a good job of tackling. We better come off blocks and get secondary tacklers to the ball.”
Gordon has the lone 100-yard performance by a Bronco this season, with a 101-yard day against the Giants in the season opener.
Who has the edge?
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater is tracking to play Sunday after suffering a concussion last week. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t looked like his future Hall of Famer self so far this year, missing wide-open receivers and posting a total QBR of 36.3, fifth-worst in the league. Edge: Broncos
Running back
The combination of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams hasn’t gotten the traction the team expected as opponents have stacked the box against Denver. Meanwhile, Steelers tailback Najee Harris doesn’t have a 100-yard game yet but is poised to break out. Edge: Even
Receiver/tight end
Tim Patrick must carry the load at wideout with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler out, and Courtland Sutton questionable (ankle). Noah Fant must be more involved with Albert Okwuegbunam out. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are Big Ben’s top targets, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is dangerous. Edge: Even
Offensive line
The Broncos were without starting guards Graham Glasgow and Dalton Risner last week and it showed, but both are set to return this week. Pittsburgh’s offensive line was a disaster through the first three weeks but turned in a solid game against Green Bay. Edge: Even
Defensive line
Shelby Harris, Dre’Mont Jones and Mike Purcell have been healthy and productive through four games, and are a primary reason Denver’s been so stout against the run. All-Pro tackle Cameron Heyward is a force on Pittsburgh’s defensive line. Edge: Broncos
Linebacker
Von Miller has registered at least a partial sack in all four games, and Malik Reed is playing well. T.J. Watt has emerged as one of the best defensive players in all of football and leads the Steelers with five sacks; Devin Bush is also a playmaker on the inside. Edge: Even
Secondary
The Ravens capitalized on communication miscues for several big passes last Sunday, including a 49-yard touchdown pass. But Denver’s secondary is still formidable, while the Steelers also feature a potent safety combo in Terrell Edmunds and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Edge: Even
Special teams
Brandon McManus (9-for-9 on field goals) is the highlight of a Broncos special teams unit that tends to give up at least one big play a game. The Steelers feature reliable veteran Chris Boswell, who has missed just two kicks since the start of last year. Edge: Steelers
Tale of the tape
| Category | Broncos | Steelers |
| Total offense | 353.8 (17th) | 301.8 (27th) |
| Rush offense | 121.8 (11th) | 55.3 (32nd) |
| Pass offense | 232 (21st) | 246.5 (16th) |
| Points per game | 20.8 (T-21st) | 16.8 (T-28th) |
| Total defense | 267.8 (4th) | 357.8 (16th) |
| Run defense | 70.5 (5th) | 99 (11th) |
| Pass defense | 197.8 (6th) | 258.8 (19th) |
| Points allowed | 12.3 (2nd) | 23.3 (13th) |
* Through Week 4
By the numbers
1 — The number of interceptions the Broncos have thrown through the first four games, tied for second-fewest in the league. Teddy Bridgewater has zero picks, and Drew Lock threw one at the end of last week’s loss.
11 — Malik Reed’s career sack total as a fill-in over the past several seasons for Bradley Chubb/Von Miller; Reed ranks tied for third among all undrafted players with nine sacks since the start of last year.
12 — The number of sacks Denver has allowed through four games, tied for 28th in the NFL.
2.4% — Ben Roethlisberger’s touchdown rate on 170 passing attempts, the second-lowest percentage of his career behind his injury-shortened 2019 season when he played just two games.
0 — The amount of shutouts by either the Broncos or the Steelers in the teams’ 25 regular-season meetings. The fewest amount of points scored in a game between the teams was a 14-10 Denver win in Pittsburgh on Sept. 4, 1983 — John Elway’s NFL debut.
Betting/fantasy
Line: Broncos +1.5
Denver enters Sunday as slight underdogs, a line that was set earlier in the week amid the Broncos’ quarterback uncertainty. But with Bridgewater ready to return from his concussion, the Broncos have the edge against a subpar Steelers team. That’s especially the case if the Broncos defense can continue to play like a Top 5 unit while keeping Ben Roethlisberger from finding a rhythm in the pocket.
Prop bet: Ben Roethlisberger over 1.5 TD passes (-105)
Bet the under. Denver’s secondary has done a decent job of limiting the long passing play this year, even in the wake of Lamar Jackson’s 49-yard touchdown pass last week. And the Broncos’ red zone defense continues to be above-grade (they’ve allowed a TD on 43.4% of opponent red zone trips since 2019 to lead the NFL). The Steelers’ points are more likely to come on the ground or by field goals.
Fantasy play: WR Tim Patrick
Teddy Bridgewater’s running thin on targets at wideout, and the Broncos will be even thinner there if Courtland Sutton can’t play due to the ankle injury he suffered in Friday’s practice. That presents an opportunity for Patrick, who has shown no issue filling in as the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver. Patrick can win 50/50 vertical balls and get yards after the catch. He’s a red-zone threat too, with two TDs there this season.
Post predictions
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 20, Steelers 19
For a team with no margin for error in making the NFL playoffs, a road game against washed-up Big Ben and Pittsburgh is an opportunity the Broncos cannot afford to mess up.
Kyle Newman, beat writer: Broncos 17, Steelers 13
The Broncos avenge their loss at Heinz Field from a season ago as Bridgewater’s time-consuming drives, combined with three takeaways by the opportunistic Denver defense, allow the visitors to prevail in a rock fight.
Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer: Broncos 22, Steelers 17
If quarterback Teddy Bridgewater starts, the Broncos move to 4-1 behind his two touchdown passes to receiver Courtland Sutton. If Teddy isn’t available, the Steelers win.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 18, Steelers 17
Six Brandon McManus field goals! Nine safeties! Doesn’t matter how you get there — an ugly 4-1 beats the holy heck out of a “pretty” 3-2. For whom does the bell toll? It tolls for thee, Big Ben. It tolls for thee.
