Start to finish, it was Vic Fangio’s best day since he was hired as Broncos coach in January 2020. His defense kept the Dallas Cowboys to 16 points and 164 yards below their season averages, stopped all four fourth-down attempts, and allowed only two late-game touchdowns to win as a double-digit road underdog.
Fangio was flying high, his team resuscitating their season with two consecutive wins after a four-game losing streak.
It was Nov. 7.
Fast forward to Monday, when the Broncos return to practice following their four-day bye-week break.
The Broncos are 5-5, but started Sunday 12th in the AFC, part of a muck of mediocrity vying for the three wild-card card spots.
So who are these Broncos?
They are slow starters (minus-21 point differential on opening drives). They are prone to allowing big plays (22 completions of at least 25 yards). They are terrible on third down (27th offense, 26th defense). They are streaky (runs of three and two consecutive wins sandwiched a four-game losing skid). And they are average (.500 record).
“We realize who we are,” defensive end Dre’Mont Jones. “We’re a tough, gritty team.”
Tough and gritty, probably so. But that usually isn’t enough.
Here are three storylines, looking back and forward:
No finishing kick
The Broncos are headed for a sixth consecutive year finishing 22nd or worse in points per game. This group is at 20.0 for a 23rd-place ranking. Among the other dreary statistics are third down (only two games above 50%) and red zone touchdown rate (29th; 50%).
On Nov. 2, general manager George Paton was blunt in analyzing the offense: “We’re not good in the critical down and critical areas of the field.”
Critical downs: The Broncos aren’t good enough on first down (they need an average of 8.9 yards to go on second down, 29th in the NFL) and the aforementioned third-down issues include 70 attempts when needing at least eight yards (17 conversions).
Critical areas: The Broncos have 17 touchdowns in 34 red zone trips. In goal-to-go situations, the Broncos leave points on the field — 11 touchdowns in 18 possessions. It starts when the Broncos get close to the red zone; they are 30th in the NFL in yards per snap inside the opponents’ 30 (3.24).
Itap not like the Broncos aren’t without explosive plays; they just can’t capitalize on gaining chunk yardage.
The offense has at least one explosive play (rush of at least 12 yards or catch of at least 16) on 40 possessions this year, but has scored touchdowns on only 17 of those drives. They do something good, but can’t stack up good plays when crossing midfield.
Acute attrition
On offense, left tackle Garett Bolles, left guard Dalton Risner, right guard Graham Glasgow, right tackle Bobby Massie, tight ends Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam and receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler has missed at least one game because of injuries or COVID-19.
On defense, the list is nose tackle Mike Purcell, cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Bryce Callahan, outside linebackers Bradley Chubb, Malik Reed and Von Miller (before he was traded) and inside linebackers Josey Jewell, Alexander Johnson and Baron Browning.
The attrition forced Paton to make trades for linebackers Stephen Weatherly and Kenny Young — both are now starters — and required Fangio and his coaching staff to instruct on-the-fly to young players.
Help has arrived and will be on the way.
Jeudy has 16 catches in three games since his return and the Broncos should hope the attention he commands, plus a week-plus of self-scouting, solves Sutton’s recent bout of inactivity (five catches in the last three games).
Chubb had ankle surgery after lasting only 19 snaps in the Week 2 win at Jacksonville and the anticipation externally and internally is he will boost a pass rush that has 43.4% of their sacks (10 of 23) in two games (five apiece against the Jets and Washington).
The sooner Callahan (knee against Washington on Oct. 31) can return, the better because of his strong coverage abilities against the slot receiver.
Disappointing defense
The Broncos’ modus operandi was clear once Paton started making roster moves in March. Build up the defense to slow down the division’s quarterbacks, adopt a ball-control offense that can build a lead and, once the advantage is achieved, have the closers-at-all-levels defense vice-grip opponents.
Not quite. Entering Sunday, the defense ranked seventh in yards but isn’t elite in sacks (24, tied for 10th), interceptions (eight, tied for 12th), and completions of at least 20 (36, seventh-most) and 40 (seven, tied for fifth-most) yards allowed.
So what are the fixes? The Broncos believe Chubb will provide a boost. Fangio has ruled out switching his base-package front from three players to four defensive linemen to clog up the run lanes and account for the lack of inside linebacker depth. Getting Callahan back could allow Fangio to add layers to his coverage/pressure calls because he trusts his man coverage players.
Fangio should keep blitzing, though. The Broncos have rushed at least five players on 32.8% of the opponentap drop-backs. That usually creates single match-ups for Jones and defensive end Shelby Harris, who have played well in the last four games — Jones has 7 1/2 pass-rush disruptions and Harris four.
Fangio’s fate will be tied to how the Broncos’ defense fares against the AFC West. Can the highly-paid and highly-hyped secondary eliminate the big plays allowed and produce more takeaways? Can the inside linebackers, currently Young and Browning, hold up against physical run teams? The answers will drive Paton’s January decision about the coaches and roster.
“We have a lot of football ahead of us,” Jones said. “Itap not panic (time), but it is make it or break it (time). We have to make sure we hone in and lock it down. If we don’t, everyone is going to be (ticked).”
