Week 16 Picks
Game of the week
Buffalo at New England
Three weeks after the Patriots wind-burned the Bills in suburban Buffalo, the scene moves to Foxborough. The Patriots, who lost their grip on the AFC’s top seed with last week’s loss at Indianapolis, are a 2 1/2-point favorite. Mac Jones will throw two touchdowns.
Patriots 24, Bills 17
Lock of the week
L.A. Chargers at Houston
Give it up for the Texans — they’ve won only three games but two were on the road against division rivals Tennessee and Jacksonville. But now the letdown. The Chargers, a 10-point road favorite, have had extra rest and will stay in the wild-card race despite their mid-week virus issues.
Chargers 38, Texans 14
Upset of the week
Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens have uncertainty at quarterback — Lamar Jackson missed last week’s loss to Green Bay because of injury. But Tyler Huntley was 28 of 40 for 215 yards and two touchdowns. As a three-point underdog, the Ravens keep Cincinnati from its fourth two-game winning streak of the year.
Ravens 20, Bengals 16
Around the AFC: Creating takeaways, limiting giveaways has fueled Kansas City’s rise to top of conference
Rolling, but vulnerable. Kansas City has won seven consecutive games to enter the final three weeks with AFC home-field advantage in its hands. But the Chiefs placed tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill on the COVID-19/reserve list early in the week and their status for Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh is unclear. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to contain the Steelers — during their streak, they have allowed 17, seven, 14, nine, nine, nine and 28 points. The other key has been turnovers. Kansas City had a minus-11 differential through eight games, but are plus-11 in the last six.
Who will emerge? Thirteen AFC teams have at least seven wins compared to nine for the NFC. So what will the conference’s seven-team playoff lineup look like? Division winners: 1. Kansas City (first-round bye); 2. New England; 3. Indianapolis; and 4. Baltimore. Wild-card teams: 5. Tennessee; 6. Los Angeles Chargers; and 7. Buffalo. Entering Week 16, the Broncos should root for Arizona over Indianapolis (Saturday), Cincinnati over Baltimore, Houston over the Chargers, Kansas City over Pittsburgh, New England over Buffalo and New Orleans over Miami (Monday).
Top picks face off. Itap 2-12 Jacksonville at the 3-11 New York Jets on Sunday. Talk about a stocking stuffer. The game matches this year’s top two overall draft picks — quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) and Zach Wilson (Jets). Out of the 32 passers who statistically qualify, Lawrence (69.3) and Wilson (66.4) are 31st and 32nd, respectively, in passer rating. Lawrence’s 14 interceptions are tied for the league lead and both players have five more interceptions than touchdowns. Letap hope for a track meet between the 27th- (Jets) and 32nd-ranked (Jaguars) offenses.
Around the NFC: Running game puts Philadelphia in playoff contention after 2-5 start
Eagles run to contention. Philadelphia, which has turned a 2-5 start into its current 7-7 record, is winning by running … a lot. The Eagles are the first team to rush for at least 175 yards in seven consecutive games since Chicago in its 1985 Super Bowl season. Next up is tying Pittsburgh and Miami — both teams had eight straight games in 1972. The Broncos were the third opponent during the Eagles’ streak. The Eagles are averaging 41.3 carries for 214.4 yards (5.2 yards per carry) during the run and have scored 13 rushing touchdowns. Next up for Philadelphia on a short week is the dreadful New York Giants.
Jefferson nears record. Why doesn’t Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins just throw it to receiver Justin Jefferson 25 times a game? We semi-kid, but Jefferson is so dynamic, he can beat any coverage. If he gets 21 yards Sunday against the Rams, he will set the record for most yards in a player’s first two years. The Rams’ Odell Beckham is the current record-holder (2,755), followed by Jefferson (2,735) and Randy Moss (2,726). Jefferson’s 1,335 yards are second in the NFL to the Rams’ Cooper Kupp (1,624).
Ball-hawking Cowboys. Dallas (10-4) can clinch the NFC East with a win Sunday night over Washington (6-8). The Cowboys are ultra-opportunistic defensively. The defense’s 31 takeaways entered Week 16 tied with Indianapolis for most in the league; the Cowboys had 24 all of last year. In the last three games (all wins), they have forced at least four takeaways. The only teams to achieve that in four straight games are Buffalo (1993 and 2004) and Green Bay (’02). Dallas’ 23 interceptions this year are three more than any other team.
