When assessing the Pac-12’s postseason prospects, the Hotline peers into the future with reverse engineering.
Will the conference send a team to the College Football Playoff for the first time in six years?
ճ’s not the correct question, in our opinion.
Does the conference have a team good enough to finish the regular season with a 13-0 or 12-1 record?
ճ’s the question.
No two-loss team has been invited to the CFP in its eight years of existence, which strongly suggests the Pac-12 needs its champion to have no more than one loss when it hoists the trophy in Las Vegas on Dec. 2.
We don’t see anyone capable of finishing 13-0 or 12-1 — not when all the top contenders (Utah, Oregon and USC) face difficult non-conference matchups, play nine league opponents and must survive the title duel.
ճ’s 11 games against Power Five competition and only one loss allowed.
Very difficult.
Extremely difficult.
As a result, the most likely outcome of the Pac-12 season is familiar: No playoff participant.
Our bowl projections, listed below, are based published here last week.
But first, three notes on the process …
— The conference has six direct tie-ins but is able to place a seventh eligible team into an ESPN-operated game.
— The Rose, Alamo, Holiday and Las Vegas bowls will select participants based on desirability, but only to a point: They cannot pass on Team X in favor of Team Y if there is more than a one-game difference in conference record.
— Starting with the Sun Bowl, teams must be picked in order of conference record.
Selection order provided by the conference office.
1. Rose Bowl
Date: Jan. 2
Pac-12 team: Utah
Matchup: vs. Big Ten
Comment: The Utes take a very different regular-season journey to the same destination, with a Pac-12 championship followed by the trip to Pasadena. And this time, they go out on top.
2. Alamo Bowl
Date: Dec. 29
Pac-12 team: USC
Matchup: vs. Big 12
Comment: The paucity of at-large berths into the New Year’s Six bowls every third year, when the Peach and Fiesta bowls host semifinals, ends up squeezing three-loss USC. Instead, the Trojans make their first-ever appearance in the Alamo. Oklahoma would make an interesting opponent, don’t you think?
3. Las Vegas Bowl
Date: Dec. 17
Pac-12 team: Oregon
Matchup: vs. SEC
Comment: The Ducks close the season as they open it: facing an SEC foe on a (technically) neutral field. The lessons learned against Georgia in September will pay dividends against the likes of LSU or Florida in December.
4. Holiday Bowl
Date: Dec. 28
Pac-12 team: Washington
Matchup: vs. ACC
Comment: Our hunch is the conference race plays out in a fashion that would, under other circumstances, send UCLA to San Diego. But after the Bruins canceled last year, Holiday officials want nothing to do with them.
5. Sun Bowl
Date: Dec. 30
Pac-12 team: UCLA
Matchup: vs. ACC
Comment: The Sun would be required to select the Bruins if they finish in the top four and are still available. (Last appearance in El Paso: 2013.) Of note: Bowls loath repeat participants, and Washington State was here last year.
6. LA Bowl
Date: Dec. 17
Pac-12 team: Washington State
Matchup: Mountain West
Comment: The Cougars face one MW opponent during the season, Colorado State, so the chance of a rematch is remote. Most likely, WSU draws Boise State, Fresno State or San Diego State.
7. ESPN Bowl (Gasparilla, First Responders, Armed Forces)
Date: TBD
Pac-12 team: Oregon State
Matchup: Power Five or American
Comment: Armed Forces and First Responders are in Texas and thus better fits for the Pac-12 than the Florida-based Gasparilla.
8. At-large bowl
Date: TBD
Pac-12 team: Cal
Matchup: TBD
Comment: The road to the postseason got significantly more difficult over the weekend, when Cal announced defensive lineman Brett Johnson, in the conference, would miss the season with a lower-body injury. Huge blow to the Bears.
Non-qualifiers: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Stanford.
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