Browns (7-3) at Broncos (5-5)
When: 2:05 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/FOX
Broncos-Browns series: The Broncos are 21-7 in 28 regular-season games dating back to 1970; they lost 17-14 in the last meeting, on Oct. 21, 2021, in Cleveland, and have lost two of the last three matchups to the Browns.
In the spotlight
The Broncos are in the playoff hunt — barely.
Denver has a 19% chance of making the postseason, Still, it’s impressive that the Broncos are in the mix despite starting the season at 1-5.
The Broncos’ four-game win streak has their confidence at an all-time high, said safety Justin Simmons. For Denver to sustain this euphoric feeling while moving up in the standings, the next two games are pivotal. The Broncos need to handle business against the Browns and the Houston Texans — a pair of AFC teams also jockeying for position down the stretch.
The Browns are the fifth seed, while the Texans — led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans — are in sixth place with a 6-4 record.
“(Itap) just (about) having the 1-0 mentality every week,” Simmons said. “There’s no reason you should go into any stadium, especially at home, and think you can’t win.”
Denver’s playoff odds increase to 52% if it beats Cleveland and Houston. If the Broncos win just one of the two matchups, their odds fall to 17%, while losing both games plummets their chances to 2%, forcing them to win the rest of their games to have at least a 53% shot of clinching a postseason berth.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton tries to have tunnel vision and avoid worrying about the AFC playoff picture. As Payton rode home after Denver’s win over the Vikings in Week 11, all he could think about was everything the team did wrong and how to improve.
At the same time, Payton understands hearing “Denver” and “postseason” in the same sentence means the team is doing something right.
“Itap good that the questions are coming. Itap better than the alternative,” Payton said. “There are just so many things that we have to get better at. There’s still that race to improve and that race to get better.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Denver’s run game has taken a step back over the past two weeks. The Broncos rushed for only 46 yards against the Vikings and have averaged 3.2 yards per carry in the last two games. Cleveland allowed 172 rushing yards in the win over Pittsburgh, but has generally been stout against the run all season. Edge: Browns
When Broncos pass
Wilson has been solid even though the Broncos have lacked explosive plays in the passing game. He has thrown for 760 yards and seven touchdowns during the four-game win streak. Cleveland’s defense will be his biggest challenge of the season. The Browns have allowed nine touchdown passes, the fewest in the NFL, while opposing quarterbacks have a 71.6 passer rating. Oh yeah, and edge rusher Myles Garrett is a beast. He has a league-best 13 sacks. Edge: Browns
When Browns run
The Browns love running the football. They are third in carries (343) and rushing yards (142.7 per game). The Broncos, on the other hand, haven’t been terrific at stopping the run. They have allowed 367 rushing yards in the last two games and have allowed a league-worst 160 yards per game this season. Edge: Browns
When Browns pass
Browns rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has had accuracy issues, completing 55% of his pass attempts while throwing four interceptions in four games (two starts). He is still searching for his first career touchdown pass. Denver has recorded an interception in seven straight games. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz has gone 9 for 9 on field goal attempts in the last two games. Good things seem to happen whenever rookie returner Marvin Mims Jr. touches the ball. Thatap probably why the Vikings elected to kick it in the end zone five times. The Browns are 28th in punt return yards allowed with 275. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski has led his team to a 7-3 record despite losing star running back Nick Chubb and quarterback Deshaun Watson to season-ending injuries. It also helps that Stefanski has the best defense in the league. Payton is still searching for consistency on offense, especially in the red zone. Edge: Browns
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 301.2 (23rd) | 325.8 (18th) |
| Rush offense | 110.2 (T-14th) | 142.7 (3rd) |
| Pass offense | 191 (24th) | 183.1 (26th) |
| Points per game | 21.7 (15th) | 22.7 (13th) |
| Total Defense | 400.1 (32nd) | 243.3 (1st) |
| Run defense | 160 (32nd) | 99.6 (11th) |
| Pass defense | 240.1 (24th) | 143.7 (1st) |
| Points allowed | 26.8 (30th) | 18.0 (6th) |
By the numbers
35: Fourth-quarter comebacks for Russell Wilson in the regular season and postseason combined — tied for ninth-most in NFL history.
1: Rushing touchdowns for the Broncos this season.
12: Takeaways for the Broncos defense in the last three games.
15: Quarterback hits for Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto.
Bet on it
Line: Broncos -1.5
Denver will be at a disadvantage against the Browns’ ruthless defense. But if the Broncos can generate a couple of turnovers, they will find a way to win this game.
Prop bet: Over/under 36
Bet the under because this game will be a low-scoring affair. Itap going to be cold, both defenses have been solid, while the Browns are relying on rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Itap going to get ugly.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Browns 16, Broncos 13
The only surprise will be if this game turns into a track meet. The Broncos need to turn rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson over a couple of times, because moving the ball against the Browns is going to be a rugged task. That, combined with Denver’s porous run defense and Cleveland’s powerhouse ground game, makes it easy to question if this is a good matchup for Sean Payton’s streaking team.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 17, Browns 14
The Broncos are rolling right now. Even though they haven’t played extremely well over the past two weeks, they still found ways to win. Cleveland’s defense will be a problem, but Wilson will unlock his clutch gene when it matters most on Sunday. Expect the Broncos to pick off Thompson-Robinson a couple of times.
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 15, Browns 10
This team is starting to take on a very 2011 vibe. You remember Tebowmania, don’t you? OK, be chill, all you supporters of Russell Wilson. I’m not making a quarterback comparison here. Well, maybe a little … as it applies to the relentless faith that something good — even if it requires something weird, wacky and entirely unexpected — will happen for the Broncos during the course of a game.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 17, Browns 16
Can the Orange & Blue string together their first five-game win streak in eight years? Heck, yeah. In a league where momentum is swung by confidence and takeaways, the Broncos are basking in both right now, with the holiday wind finally at their backs. In a tussle of two hot defenses, watch Russell Wilson string together one more big drive than Dorian Thompson-Robinson does at a Mile High. It’ll be ugly, but when ugly wins, it’s downright beautiful.
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