ANAHEIM, Calif. — Nathan MacKinnon is the best player in the world … at even strength.
Debates are fun. They are part of what makes sports, well, sports. Every so often, there is a reasonable debate about who the best hockey player in the world is.
It is Connor McDavid, and has been for several years now. Even the guy who gets compared to McDavid most — MacKinnon — has agreed with this at several points, unless he’s making the case for teammate Cale Makar.
But there is no debate about who the best player is at even strength. It’s MacKinnon, and whether the sample size is 2025-26 or the past three seasons, the rest of the field is not particularly close.
Fastest in franchise history
MacKinnon passed two different century marks Tuesday night during Colorado’s dominant 5-1 win in Anaheim. The obvious one everyone knows about.
When he set up captain Gabe Landeskog for a one-timer to effectively put the game away early in the third period, MacKinnon collected his 100th point of the season. He did it in his 59th game of the season, which is the fastest in franchise history. It’s also the fourth straight season for MacKinnon to reach 100-plus points.
He’s second in the league to McDavid right now, and in a battle to win the Art Ross Trophy for the first time. MacKinnon could also win the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy for the first time as the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Whether MacKinnon can win the Hart Trophy as league MVP for the second time in three years is less clear. McDavid, San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini and others make that race tough to predict at this point.
A top pillar of the argument for MacKinnon is simple: He is the sport’s best player at even strength, by a significant margin. That is where the other century milestone comes into play.
Landeskog’s goal was the 100th the Avalanche have scored at even strength this season with MacKinnon on the ice. Colorado has outscored its opponents 100-37 at evens when MacKinnon is out there — just a preposterous statistic.
The next two players on the list behind MacKinnon’s 100 are Makar (85) and Martin Necas (82), then Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov next at 81.
That plus-63 goal differential is 29 better than Kucherov (plus-34), another MVP candidate. Edmonton is plus-10 with McDavid on the ice at even strength (78-68). San Jose is plus-15 with Celebrini out there (72-57).
Three non-Colorado players in the NHL are plus-30 or better: Kucherov, his teammate J.J. Moser (plus-39) and Utah’s John Marino (plus-32). There are six other Avs at plus-30 or better, and two more guys at plus-29.
Set to smash the modern record
MacKinnon is at the heart of all of Colorado’s historical dominance at even strength this season. Five of the Avs’ defensemen are at plus-29 or better, plus the three forwards who have played with MacKinnon the most.
The NHL’s “advanced statistics” era starts in 2007, the farthest back shot attempt data is publicly available. From 2007-17, no player was on the ice for 100 even-strength goals in a season.
Scoring is up over the past decade, so MacKinnon is the 36th player to do it since the 2017-18 season. But he has 22 games still to play, and at this rate, he is going to smash the modern record.
No one has been on the ice for more even-strength goals in a season over the past two decades than MacKinnon two years ago. Colorado outscored foes 122-82 with No. 29 on the ice that year.
The Avs are on pace to score 137 goals when MacKinnon is on the ice at evens. The defensive side of this makes it even more incredible.
Johnny Gaudreau had the best goal differential for anyone who was on the ice for 100-plus goals in a season during this era — Calgary outscored teams 118-52 with him out there in 2021-22.
That’s plus-62. All the Avs have to do is stay even at evens over the next 22 games with MacKinnon on the ice and he beats that. It’s far more likely that differential pushes into the 70s or even the 80s, which is something the NHL has not seen since the early-to-mid 1980s.
MacKinnon’s dominance at even strength this season is why he is still an MVP candidate, despite Colorado’s awful power play. If the Avs were even middle of the pack with the extra man, MacKinnon would have 10-12 more points, the club would have 3-4 more wins and there would be no MVP debate.
But it’s not just this season. Colorado has outscored teams 322-187 since the start of the 2023-24 season at evens with MacKinnon on the ice. That’s plus-135.
Makar is second in goal differential at plus-87. Kucherov is next at plus-83. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are both in the 70s. Quinn Hughes is plus-52. Auston Matthews is plus-51.
To put that a different way, the Avs are 39 percent better with MacKinnon on the ice than any of the other 31 teams are with any player on the ice over the past three seasons at even strength.
Margins of greatness in the NHL are razor-thin. Except when it comes to even strength.
That gap, from MacKinnon to anyone else, is a canyon.
