Like the King. Hate the ransom. Only an April Fool would swap Peyton Watson at 23 for LeBron James at 41.
And Draymond Green may be a lot of things. But the man’s no fool.
“What we’ve seen now is the tip of the iceberg (for Watson). He ain’t even scratched the surface yet,” “Peyton Watson is going to be an elite NBA player … so, y’all keep an eye out for Peyton Watson. That kid is going to be an All-Star. No questions asked.”
Exactly. And yet, because it’s April, because it’s “Where Will LeBron Play Next Year” season, silly questions give way to even sillier suggestions.
On Tuesday, longtime ESPN scribes Dave McMenamin and Tim Bontemps authored a piece for Worldwide Leader’s website — including one that featured the Nuggets. In it, they speculated that Denver and Los Angeles could work out a sign-and-trade that would see the Lakers land Peyton Watson (a former UCLA star and Long Beach native) or Cam Johnson for the King. This was backed by an unnamed source, a “West executive,” who suggested:
“Who is the only guy on (James’) level from a basketball IQ standpoint in the league? Go there and team up with that guy.”
‘There’ would be the Front Range. The ‘only guy’ would be Nikola Jokic. Fun? Sure. Flattering? No doubt. But for Watson? Who ships a 23-year-old player coming into their prime for a soon-to-be 42-year-old? Even if that middle-aged wonder is one of the best five guys to ever play the game?
Yes, Tom Brady won a Super Bowl at age 42. Barry Bonds, at the same age, led the National League in walks (132). Some 44 years earlier, a 42-year-old Warren Spahn led the National League in wins (23). Age is just a number.
Although the numbers in this scenario are bonkers. Especially when you consider that, odds are, James is staying put with the Lakers, popping back to the Cavaliers, or hanging it up. Of the ESPN.com hypotheticals, Denver was fifth on the list — and it’s hard to believe King James’ camp, once push comes to shove, would even have to dig that deep.
But let’s humor the concept for a second.
There’s the cost, for one thing. Watson is a restricted free agent after the season who’s made the Nuggets look bad for not giving him an extension earlier — putting up, as of Tuesday evening, career highs in points (14.9 per game) and rebounds. A show-stopping leaper and defender over his first three seasons on Chopper Circle, at age 23, he’s evolved into a foundational, two-way wing whose jumper now complements years of sky-walking athleticism. He’s also currently sporting a team-friendly $4.36 million cap number. That’s about to be tripled, or quadrupled, by somebody.
King James is slated to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent coming off a $52.6 million cap hit this season following a $48.7 million hit in ’24-25. If he’s going to give any franchise a “hometown” discount, it’s more likely to be given to his actual hometown — Cleveland — than to the Nuggets. If the Kroenkes can’t afford Watson, how would they turn around and justify stretching the cap that much more for James?
There are the realities of the East vs. the West. If the King wants at least one more ring, more power to him. Oklahoma City’s core is young enough that they’re not going anywhere, and the Spurs with Victor Wembanyama are right behind them. The road back to the Finals in the East through Detroit, Boston and New York is far easier than the brutal hellscape of the current West bracket.
There’s the fit. Remember The Russell Westbrook Experience? Now picture that vibe, times about 50. As part of Team ‘Bron, the Joker might start seeing kinder foul calls come his way more consistently. But when you get The King, you get his demands, his parameters, his show. And maybe his family members, too. In some ways, it wouldn’t be all that unlike The Prime Effect at CU. And yet, this situation is markedly different than Boulder four years ago. The Buffs, at the time, needed an identity besides irrelevance and bad football. The Nuggets don’t.
On the court, James is an alpha who can play with anybody. If you squint hard enough, you can even see LeBron doing for the Nuggets next year what Aaron Gordon, whose health has become a daily concern, does now. Although so could Watson, at a price close to or less than James’ likely asking price.
The genius in building this Nuggets core was not just in finding Jokic and grooming him into a generational big man. It was also in finding pieces that accented Joker’s ridiculous, prodigious strengths (hands, feet, vision, touch, IQ, passing, shooting, ball-handling, strength, physicality, dexterity, anticipation, etc., etc.) while simultaneously lessening the impact of his few on-court weaknesses (rim protection, straight-line speed).
Jokic could find the open man in the middle of a crowded supermarket, so you surround him with excellent spot-up shooters (Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., Aaron Gordon, etc., etc.) and let him pick from several poisons. He can hit an earwig in stride from 80 yards away, so you give him superlative sprinters and finishers on runouts (Also Gordon, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, etc., etc.). He’ll contest shots, but probably won’t swat many into the second row — so you pair him with defenders who can cut off the supply chain of drivers at the head (Also AG, also Watson, also Braun, also Brown, etc., etc.).
Even at age 41, King James is still an elite scoring machine (20.7 points per game as of Wednesday). That long-distance shooting, though, has been slipping — James’ 41% conversion rate on 3-pointers in ’23-24 dropped to 37.6% last season and was at 31.4% as of Wednesday, a dip of 10% over about three years.
Watson, meanwhile, is trending in the exact opposite direction on his treys. Two seasons ago? 29.6%. A year ago? 35.3%. This season, before Wednesday? 41.5%.
And then there’s the defense. , James went into Wednesday evening with a Defensive Rating (DR) of 116 opponent points allowed per 100 possessions (lower is better), and that number has been trending the wrong way, too. Last season, LeBron’s DR was 114, the same as the season before that. In ’22-23, that DR was 113. In ’21-22, it was 111. Career blocks per 100 possessions: 1.0 — 0.9 this season, 0.8 two years prior.
While Watson’s DR, per Basketball-Reference, Even in a “down” defensive year for P-Swat, he was blocking 1.9 shots per 100 possessions this season before the midweek Utah trip, after 2.7 stuffs per 100 possessions in ’24-25 and 2.9 per 100 in ’23-24.
“Peyton Watson has gotten so much better,” Green continued. “He clearly has a high-level processor. When you have a high-level processor in this league, it’s an advantage. It’s very understated, but a very big advantage.”
Why give that one up so soon? When it comes to the question of an old King or a young Watson for the Nuggets next season,
