Troy Renck: A first-place schedule means grounds for anything. But not everything. We have known the league doesn’t like coach Sean Payton. But did the shield’s bean counters have to make it so obvious? The NFL wants answers on whether the 2025 Broncos were imposters. The sooner or better. In their first six games, the Broncos play five returning playoff teams and, the lone outlier, is the Kansas City Chiefs. And to increase the degree of difficulty, Denver faces Kansas City on the road on Monday night in the season opener. What does it mean for the Broncos’ record over the first month-and-a-half and for the season?
Sean Keeler: That it’s OK to keep the floor for 2026 a Mile High. Just don’t stick the ceiling in the mesosphere. I‘ll stand by 11-6, but I’d be stunned if they came storming out of the gates to get there. The NFL loves competitive socialism, which is why it’s so hard to be consistently great or to consistently stink it up the way, say, the Browns have for decades. Since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970, only three teams have won 14 or more games in consecutive NFL seasons: Chicago in ’85 and ’86; San Francisco in ”89 and ’90 and New England in ’03 and ’04. There’s a difference between parity and punishment. This fight card sure feels like the latter.
Renck: A lot of people are saying apountry should relax. That this gauntlet is the price of returning to relevance. Win a division. Play the best teams the following season. Some of us remember covering great Broncos teams year after year. The schedule is not the issue. It is the order of the games. The Broncos’ opening stretch seems punitive. You are telling me the league could not have mixed in an Arizona, Las Vegas or Miami early? They did that for the Chargers and Chiefs. It allows a team time to gain traction. The Broncos must run on rocket fuel out of the starting block or risk going up in smoke. I am predicting the Broncos go 3-3 to open, but not with much conviction.
Keeler: I want to argue for 4-2, but I’m not sure I can with a straight face. Because that means either a.) stealing a road game against Jim Harbaugh and a probably healthy Justin Herbert, or b.) sweeping the Rams and Seahawks at home. It’s almost as if the league went to extra lengths to throw a wrench into Payton’s favorite (and most successful) month, historically — apountry’s October features trips to San Francisco (Oct. 4) and to the Chargers (Oct. 11) as a back-breaking back-to-back, followed by the defending Super Bowl champs (Seattle) coming to Denver on a short week. A 2-1 record in September, even with Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford on the fight card, is doable. But if you want to get to November with a winning record, it might become mandatory.
Renck: If Bo Nix is healthy, if Davis Webb is still calling plays, the Broncos will take off in October. Yes, even with games at San Francisco, at Chargers and home against the Seahawks and Cardinals. While Payton owns a 4-7 record in September with the Broncos, he loves October more than pumpkins. He boasts a 10-3 record for Denver in the second month. That means the Broncos will win two of three games against the 49ers, Chargers and Seahawks before clobbering the Cardinals. It’s all about surviving the start, getting fat on snacks before finishing with the Bills, Patriots and Chargers. The Broncos will be a better team with a worse record, finishing 11-6, a mark that could mean a tiebreaker determines the AFC West champ.
Keeler: Unless you’re Pete Carroll, precedent with NFL head coaches matters. Even if you don’t like Payton’s play-calling, you have to like the resume. Sunshine Sean won 13 or more games in a season four other times as the boss of the Saints. In the following campaign, his teams won 13 games again once, 12 games once, and 11 games twice. Average victory total? 11.75. If you’re setting the over/under at 10.5 wins, give me the over, my friend. Just don’t give me the over by much.
