Avalanche vs. Golden Knights matchups: Who has the edge?
Golden Knights: 39-26-17, 92 points; 3.22 goals per game (14th); 2.95 goals against per game (12th)
Avalanche: 55-16-11, 121 points; 3.63 goals per game (1st), 2.40 goals against per game (1st)
Offense
Minnesota had star power on par with Colorado, but the Wild’s depth was wanting. Vegas is, on paper, the most complete team the Avs have faced. Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner are two of the best players on the planet, though they have been playing on different lines recently. Mark Stone is one of the best two-way forwards in the league, but he missed the end of the Anaheim series, and his availability remains in question.
Pavel Dorofeyev is a pure goal scorer and particularly lethal on the power play. William Karlsson missed most of the season with an injury, but returned against the Ducks and centers the second line between Marner and Brett Howden, though Stone’s return would shake up the forward lines. Ivan Barbashev is another under-the-radar strong offensive player.
Tomas Hertl and Nic Dowd are better than any depth center Minnesota or Los Angeles was able to throw at the Avalanche. Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith are no longer impact players, but when everyone is healthy, they are the 13th and 14th forwards for the Golden Knights — a testament to the club’s depth up front.
Sixteen players scored for Colorado in the five-game series against Minnesota, while Nathan MacKinnon scored in every game. Martin Necas had four multi-point games against the Wild, including two key primary assists in both Games 4 and 5.
The least productive line of the four against Minnesota was the second unit, but that trio also shoulders significant defensive responsibilities. The Avs could use a breakout game or two from Brock Nelson or Valeri Nichushkin on the offensive side of the puck in this series.
Gabe Landeskog continues to be Jared Bednar’s fixer, moving from line to line and immediately helping that unit play better. Parker Kelly and Jack Drury had two goals each from the fourth line against Minnesota. If Artturi Lehkonen is able to play, the Avs are fully healthy up front and still the deepest group in the NHL.
Advantage: Avalanche
Defense
Both of these teams are excellent defensively, and that includes the forward groups helping out the defense corps. This series features a handful of the best defensive forwards in the league.
Cale Makar’s health is the dominant storyline at the start of this series. Makar missed games near the end of the regular season with an injury, but was excellent against the Kings in the opening round. Then he took an awkward hit in Game 1 against Minnesota and was clearly favoring his shoulder in Game 5. Bednar has said he’s “dealing with some stuff,” so it’s probably multiple ailments. Will he be able to play in this series, and how effective will he be?
The Avs are better on the blue line … if Makar is close to his normal self. Vegas lost Alex Pietrangelo for the year, but was able to add Rasmus Andersson ahead of the trade deadline. Andersson, Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin are the strong top-half of the defense corps — not as good Minnesota’s top three, but a strong trio. Brayden McNabb is a solid No. 4 guy, though he was ejected and suspended for a game in the last round for a dumb, late hit. Jeremy Lauzon hasn’t played since the Utah series, but could be another depth option if he gets healthy.
Avalanche star Cale Makar out for Game 1 of Western Conference Final
Colorado beat Minnesota in part because it was able to mitigate injuries to Sam Malinski and Josh Manson better than the Wild could handle not having Jonas Brodin. How will the bottom half of Vegas' defense corps perform in this series?
Advantage: Avalanche, assuming Makar can play
Special teams
Vegas was, on paper, a great team at the start of the year. The Golden Knights did not win like a great team for most of the year, in part because of poor goaltending. This was an excellent club on special teams, though. The Golden Knights finished the regular season sixth in the NHL on the power play and seventh on the penalty kill. Vegas and Pittsburgh were the only teams to finish in the top 10 in both.
It's been more of the same in the playoffs -- 25.7% on the power play (fourth) and 86.8% on the penalty kill (fifth). Vegas has also scored four times while shorthanded. No other club has more than one shorthanded tally in this tournament.
Colorado's power play started this postseason 0-for-9, but then scored six times in the next five games. It's been more effective, even in opportunities where the Avs don't convert. That said, the Avalanche allowed the most shorthanded goals during the regular season and one against Minnesota, so that will be something to watch out for.
The Avs' penalty kill was No. 1 in the NHL during the regular season. It has allowed six goals in this postseason, but two were 4-on-6 with the other goalie pulled, one was 3-on-4, and one was during the second half of a double minor. The traditional 4-on-5 PK has still been quite strong.
Advantage: Golden Knights
Goaltending
On form, Vegas goalie Carter Hart has been better of late. On track record, both Avalanche goalies were better this season.
Hart is a controversial figure. He was acquitted of sexual assault in July, reinstated by the NHL in September, signed by Vegas to a two-year contract in late October and made his return to NHL action in December. After a rocky start, Hart won his final seven decisions of the regular season, including six in April to help Vegas win the Pacific Division. He's 8-4 with a .915 save percentage in this tournament.
Scott Wedgewood was one of the best stories in the NHL this season, combining with Mackenzie Blackwood to win the William Jennings Trophy while making a career-high 43 starts. Wedgewood led the NHL in both save percentage (.921) and goals against average (2.02). He also had a sterling opening round against Los Angeles with five goals allowed in a four-game sweep.
That said, both Colorado goalies were pulled from games against Minnesota. Blackwood had a chance to take control of the net, but gave it back after just two starts. The guy with the best NHL postseason experience in this series is Vegas' Adin Hill, who led his club to the Cup in 2023 but has become an afterthought since Hart's play improved.
Advantage: Avalanche
Avalanche vs. Wild: 5 storylines to watch
1. How effective will Cale Makar be?
The Avs were able to get by against Minnesota at the end of the series, but Makar was clearly compromised in Game 5. He's had a week to heal up. He hasn't practiced, but Bednar said Tuesday he's not worried yet. His offensive impact waned in the Minnesota series, but the Avs were still getting it done defensively when he was on the ice. They're obviously going to need the best version of Makar that he can offer against Vegas.
2. Can Colorado keep up on special teams?
Colorado's dominance this season has been rooted in even-strength play, with a side of elite penalty killing. Now that the power play is improved, will the Avs be able to keep the Golden Knights from stealing games on special teams? This Vegas club is dangerous, both on the power play and the kill. If Colorado's PK has a good series and the Avs don't allowed shorthanded goals, the Avs should advance.
3. Who gets the inside track?
The DNA from Vegas' 2023 Cup run is still in there. The Golden Knights were shaky at times against Utah and Anaheim -- inferior opponents compared to Colorado — but when it was winning time, they locked it down defensively. They are adept at suppressing the best scoring chances. If there is an exposed thermal exhaust port in the Avs' 5-on-5 Death Star, it's that sometimes they will settle for Grade B-level chances and lean on their shooting talent instead of working to get into the Grade-A areas. If Vegas can lull them into that, and Hart can make the good-to-really good saves, this series will get tricky.
4. Will the Avs' goalie(s) rebound?
Wedgewood had an .872 save percentage against the Wild. Blackwood ... also had an .872 save percentage against Minnesota. It didn't hurt Colorado, because the Avs blitzed Minnesota with 24 goals, including 23 in the four wins. MacKinnon said Tuesday that he doesn't see how this won't be a long series. If it is, the Avs will likely need one of their two goalies to take control of the net and rattle off some better performances.
5. Are the Avs just better?
This could be the first storyline, but to put it bluntly ... is this Colorado team just better than Vegas? The Golden Knights, on paper, have an excellent roster. They have not played like an excellent team all year. Even this 15-4-1 run with John Tortorella as coach includes a bunch of wins over non-playoff teams and two series victories over young, untested opponents. There were times against Anaheim when it looked like Vegas had found its mojo. Is that the version the Avs will see in this series, or will Colorado have its way in a similar fashion as the last round? Minnesota was, on paper, an excellent team, too.
Avalanche vs. Wild series predictions
Corey Masisak, beat writer: If we knew on Wednesday morning that Cale Makar is good to go and close to 100%, then it feels like there aren't a lot of paths to victory here for Vegas. Carter Hart could play out of his mind. The Golden Knights could steal a game or two on special teams. Maybe this is finally the spot where the Avs beat themselves. This Colorado group has proven its mental toughness in the small spurts of adversity it has faced, though. Avs in 5.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Vegas can roll two lines that match Colorado's, especially if Mark Stone returns to the fold. But not four lines. No way. Per MoneyPuck.com, 25 different forward combos this postseason with at least 11 minutes of ice time had posted an expected goals percentage better than 66%. The Avs accounted for five of those tail-kicking combos -- the Kings had none; The Wild had two; Vegas has one. Cale or no Cale, Mitch Marner is on a serious heater right now. But if the Knights winger has to log more than 25 minutes per game, he'll be running on fumes by next Tuesday. Which, if you're Jared Bednar, is kind of the point. Avs in 6.
Troy Renck, sports columnist: There are some talking themselves into this as an even matchup. It is not. The Avs are the better team. But there are a few wrinkles of concern. Cale Makar doesn't look healthy, and how many more times is coach Jared Bednar going to pull the goalie before it affects Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood mentally? The Knights are equipped and designed to defend well in space. They have championship experience. But if Mark Stone, the Knights' version of Gabe Landeskog, remains sidelined, there is no chance Las Vegas upsets the Avs. Avs in 6.
Lori Punko, deputy sports editor: Even with the addition of Mitch Marner (ironically, traded by Toronto to Vegas for now-Av Nicolas Roy), the Golden Knights don't have the depth to keep up with the Avalanche. And Vegas could be without captain Mark Stone, who suffered a lower-body injury in Game 3 against the Anaheim Ducks, for at least several games. Colorado is averaging 3.31 goals per game to Vegas' 2.54. And the Avs, behind the tandem of Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, are giving up just 1.97 goals per game to Vegas' 2.56. The Golden Knights will put up a fight, but they don't have the firepower to outscore Colorado. Avs in 5.
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: The Golden Knights were fined $100,000 and stripped of their second-round pick in this year's draft after the team didn't open the locker room and coach John Tortorella refused to meet with reporters following Vegas' series-clinching win over the Ducks last week. It seems like Tortorella is trying to cultivate an us-against-the-world attitude with his team, and that he believes blowing off the NHL's playoff media guidelines will somehow hyper-focus the Knights into beating the Avalanche. That is an approach a team would take only when they know they are seriously outmatched. Avs fans, start making Stanley Cup Final plans. Avs in 5.
