抖阴ap

Two of the Colorado Avalanche’s most important players are eligible to sign new contracts Wednesday, but what those deals might look like is a big unknown in the NHL’s new financial landscape.

Joe Sakic said superstar Cale Makar isn’t going anywhere, but his next contract will have a huge impact on how the Avs attempt to construct a Stanley Cup-contending roster into the next decade. Artturi Lehkonen has been a critical supporting star for the Avs since arriving at the trade deadline ahead of the club’s 2022 Stanley Cup run.

Both players have one year left on their current deals. The cap ceiling is expected to be $113 million for 2027-28, the first year of their new deals. That is $29.5 million more, or about 35% more than it was when Nathan MacKinnon started his eight-year, $100.8 million contract in 2023-24.

The negotiations for each deal will be entirely different. Makar is one of the best players in the world in the prime of his career. MacKinnon famously said Makar should get $20 million per season the day after Mikko Rantanen was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Lehkonen is an extremely valuable player and a beloved teammate, but he’ll also be 32 when his next contract begins. It’s hard to fathom a number too big for the Avs with Makar, but it will be different with Lehkonen.

What might their contracts look like? The salary cap ceiling is surging to previously unforeseen levels, making it more difficult to project new deals. Sakic said last week that talks on extensions that don’t kick in until next year will start in mid-July. Maybe some deals signed by current free agents will provide more data on what contracts will look like moving forward.

Let’s try to find some comparable deals, and then adjust for the rising cap. Get ready to hear a lot about the percentage of the cap in the coming days/weeks/months to justify some cap hits that look … a little different than what we’re used to.

Cale Makar

Just kidding 鈥� there are no comparables for Makar.

Well, not as of Tuesday, anyway. Makar is one of the two best defensemen in the world. The other guy, Quinn Hughes, is also entering the final year of his contract. They’re on the same timeline. Who signs first, and will it impact the other?

The other issue 鈥� no elite defenseman has signed a contract as a pending UFA in a long time. It’s a weird quirk. The nine highest-paid forwards in the NHL right now all signed deals as pending unrestricted free agents.

Only three of the 10 highest-paid defensemen did. The other seven signed their deals as pending restricted free agents. That is a slightly different negotiation. If Makar had been an unrestricted free agent when he signed his last deal, he’d have gotten more than $54 million over six years.

Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty both signed contracts of $11 million or more that began with the 2019-20 season. No other defenseman signed for that much per season until Rasmus Dahlin signed the same pact as Doughty 鈥� 8 years, $88 million. He was a pending restricted free agent, and that deal began two years ago.

Karlsson is the most expensive defenseman at $11.5 million. Makar and Hughes will reset the top of the defense market, and then reigning Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski will be the next megadeal for a pending unrestricted free agent next year. Calder Trophy winner Matthew Schaefer will also be ready for a new deal next summer, and it is expected he’ll blow past what Makar got coming off his entry-level contract.

Here are the top-five contracts signed by defensemen who were pending unrestricted free agents in the league right now:

The percentage of the cap in year one of those deals matters. P.K. Subban also signed a deal that was worth a touch more than 13% of the cap when he was coming off a Norris Trophy win in 2014.

Both Makar and Hughes can make the case that they are among the top five to seven players in the sport, regardless of position. If Bobby Orr or Ray Bourque were 26 or 27 years old and a year from free agency, they’d be getting paid like a top five to seven player in the league.

So here are the top five contracts in the league right now:

Back to the cap percentage idea. If the Avs sign Makar to a deal worth $17 million per season, that would actually be slightly less (15.04%) than MacKinnon’s contract in 2023-24 (15.09%).

What MacKinnon said 18 months ago isn’t wrong. Makar is worth $20 million per year. The best players in the world are all worth that much, but superstars have consistently taken less to help their teams have more cap space to build around them. Kirill Kaprizov pushed the bar higher, but Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel didn’t go with him.

Even if Makar and Hughes didn’t want to take a higher percentage than what Karlsson got eight years prior, 14.11% of a $113 million cap is still $15.944 million per season.

The other big question, of course, is the term of the contract. The new collective bargaining agreement will limit the maximum contract length in future summers to seven years. Makar and Hughes (and Lehkonen) have until Sept. 15 to ink an eight-year pact if they’d like.

Kaprizov and Eichel did eight-year deals, but McDavid signed for just two, and Auston Matthews only inked a four-year pact. Whether Makar and Hughes decide to go short and cash in again, or go long for what will likely be their last huge deal, it’s going to cost Colorado (and Minnesota, assuming Hughes does sign) an enormous sum of money.

An eight-year, $120 million contract would be a significant victory for either franchise, and either might have to settle for something similar to Kaprizov’s deal.

Artturi Lehkonen

Lehkonen has been an immensely valuable player when available who has been on an incredibly team-friendly contract for years.

But, like the recently departed Valeri Nichushkin, the phrase “when available” also plays into this, and could even more so in the future.

Here’s something that sums up the past few years for the Avs: Since 2015-16, there have been 33 wings who meet this criteria 鈥� 200-plus games played, 70-plus goals scored and 150-plus points during their age 27-30 seasons. For Lehkonen and Nichushkin, that four-year window is 2022-23 through this past season.

Nichushkin has the fewest games played of the bunch (222) and Lehkonen has the third-fewest (248). Both have been highly productive when available. Both have missed 25% or more of the regular-season games. Nichushkin missed games in three of the past four postseasons, while Lehkonen missed two games in the second round this year and looked compromised during the Western Conference Final.

Lehkonen’s full value isn’t captured by 85 goals and 178 points over the past four seasons. He’s an excellent two-year player, penalty killer and someone who produces more on a per-game basis during the playoffs than the regular season.

Finding comparable players for him isn’t easy. Are the guys who have similar total production? The players with similar per-game numbers?

Here are some wings that might fit:

The guys who have the most similar career production ahead of the new contract are Arvidsson, Tarasenko, Teravainen and Smith. Arvidsson and Tarasenko were already dealing with injuries and decline, and their contracts reflected that. It’s also worth noting that both of those guys had nice bounce-back seasons last year, at ages 32 and 34, respectively.

Rust has aged the best. Palat and Smith have aged the worst. Toffoli is a weird case because he had played for six teams by the time his current deal was signed. But he had two of his best seasons at ages 30-31 and then signed with San Jose, where he scored 49 goals in two years.

There are seven players on this list. Lehkonen is more valuable than some, for sure. He hasn’t had quite the career, from a pure production standpoint, as Rust or Toffoli, at least.

The average cap percentage for those seven contracts is 6.15%. That amount in 2027-28 would be about $6.95 million. Lehkonen, when he’s healthy, has played like a $7 million player or more.

Given the cap surge, is he a $7 million player right now? And what about in the future?

The term for Lehkonen’s next deal could be just as important as the average annual value. It’s a tricky one on both fronts.

There’s no denying his present value, and losing Nichushkin only amplifies it. But there is potential for variance in the future with any deal that starts at age 32, and there might even be more than usual with Lehkonen because of his playing style and injury history.