Gone with the Win.
If Sean Payton, full-time football strategist and part-time meteorologist, can be trusted, the Broncos will face 20-mph gusts on at Arrowhead Stadium early in the game.
Gone with the Wind?
The inference? The Broncos must be prepared to run. While leaning on J.K. Dobbins makes sense, let’s be clear.
Monday night is about Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes.
Both are returning from surgery, Nix from multiple procedures on his right ankle and Mahomes from a more serious ACL repair on his left knee.
The Future vs. The Past.
That is how it will be framed. And it is not wrong. The quarterback who plays best will win the game.
My money is on Nix, not one of the greatest of all time, in Mahomes, who lacks weapons around him and pushed his recovery timeline.
It starts with this: When has Nix failed as a Bronco? When did the Broncos lose because of him last season?
He threw a bad pick against the Colts. But Denver lost on a walk-off field goal because of a leverage penalty, as ridiculous as it was — the Broncos took an unnecessary risk with an alignment and the officials should have never called it — not a turnover. And there was that forgettable playoff game in Buffalo in his rookie season.
Nix is ready to meet the moment.
It’s time for him to end Mahomes’ seven-game home win streak against the Broncos and let the Chiefs know the AFC West runs through Denver.
This is a night to fortify his reputation, to silence critics, to experience a measure of redemption after watching the AFC Championship Game in a boot.
Former Broncos standout Emmanuel Sanders relayed an anecdote about when the nine captains recently spoke that sheds light on Nix’s mindset.
“Most of the guys got up there and said, ‘Thank you for electing me. I won’t let you down.’ And Nix got up there and he had a fire to him. He was saying last year doesn’t matter and it is all about this year. And every game we have to go to battle,” said Sanders on “The Matchup” podcast with ex-Broncos star Chris Harris Jr. “Just the energy he gave the team, you could see the guys sit up.”
With 25 wins in two seasons, Nix has our attention. And with only one goal remaining, he is positioned to bring his teammates with him.
Nix, 26, will no longer have Payton in his ear. He respects his boss, but this means he no longer has any excuses. No matter what anyone says, Nix wanted this.
The expectation is that new offensive coordinator Davis Webb will provide shorter play calls and allow more time to assess the defense at the line of scrimmage. And, fingers crossed, there will be fewer hockey line changes.
With Webb in his ear until 15 seconds left on the play clock, Nix will have an extra set of eyes. Webb will see the game through the lens of an NFL quarterback, which he was four seasons ago, and as a detached coach on the sideline.
Both versions will benefit Nix.
“Some plays are like reading the ‘Green Eggs and Ham’ book like he knows it like the back of his hand,” Webb said. “Others are like ‘Harry Potter’ the fourth book.”
Webb is there to fill in the gaps, featuring a fiber-optic pace compared to Payton’s dial-up sonnets.
Payton has repeatedly said since February that he would not have given Webb play-calling duties “if I didn’t think he would give us a better chance to win.”
Debuting at Kansas City is the equivalent of taking a final as your first college exam. But Webb continues to give off vibes that he and Nix are prepared. They formed such a tight bond over the past three seasons that Nix believes they will operate in sync.
The best OCs and QBs become the voice inside each other’s heads. Finish their sentences. Nix implied as much this week when I asked whether Webb would have an advantage as an unknown or whether the Chiefs would benefit from his inexperience.
“I think itap tougher on them for sure because you just don’t know his style,” Nix said. “I understand what he likes and doesn’t like, the kind of way he is going to call the game.”
It helps that Nix embraces the big stage. He boasts a 6-1 record in prime-time games. That is tied for the best win percentage (.857) by any quarterback with five-plus starts.
It is not everything. But it’s not nothing.
Nix also outplayed Mahomes in Kansas City in 2024, deprived of a victory by a blocked field goal that stung so badly it inspired Denver to reach the postseason.
And there is this something.
Mahomes was once the best at improv, football’s version of Robin Williams. He could make magic out of a mess because of his elusiveness and alarming arm strength. While that could remain part of the second chapter of his career, it is hard to see Mahomes running around and extending plays in Week 1.
Nix, meanwhile, must color outside the lines. The main concern about his ankle operations — one to fix a break, one for cleanup — was that it would make him play cautiously.
Mobility is one of his superpowers.
Remember the diving throw against the Commanders? Or the time he dodged the Packers’ fang-bearing edge rusher Micah Parsons, changing directions before delivering a 22-yard connection?
Nix is at his best when he is an athlete. There is a reason he ran the 400 meters in high school.
Everything observed in practice, between plays, and his preseason cameo against the Packers suggests Nix trusts his legs.
The Broncos are motivated to start faster in games. And Nix needs to play better early, beyond his acumen for avoiding turnovers and sacks.
But, come on, we all know this one will be close.
And that, youth be damned, favors Nix.
