Jaguars at Broncos
³:2:05 p.m. Sunday
³:Empower Field at Mile High
ճ/徱:CBS, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Jaguars series: Jacksonville was the only team to defeat the Broncos at Empower Field last season, handing the Broncos a 34-20 loss in December. The two teams have played only 16 times, with a dead even split of eight wins apiece. The met in the playoffs in consecutive years in 1996 and 1997 — Denver beat the Jaguars 42-17 in the ’97 AFC Wild Card game and the Jaguars defeated the Broncos 30-27 in an AFC Divisional matchup the year prior.
In the spotlight: Can the Broncos’ stop Jacksonville’s play-action?
In late April, the Jaguars surprised NFL observers when they took Texas A&M tight end Nate Boerkircher in the second round of the draft. Boerkircher was viewed as a Day 3 prospect, but the Jaguars’ front office insisted he would help transform their offense into a more flexible, better-blocking unit.
In Week 1, the pick seemed to pay off. The Jaguars used multiple tight ends on 60.4% of their plays against the Cleveland Browns, the second-most of any team in the league. Last year, Jacksonville used two tight ends or more on just 24.9% of its formations, according to SumerSportsc. .
That led to more plays under center for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who attempted the fourth-most play-action passes in Week 1, according to Next Gen Stats. On Lawrence’s 10 play-action passes against the Browns, he went 6-of-10 for 70 yards and a touchdown. Last season, Lawrence attempted the sixth-most play-action passes in football.
The Jaguars love to run Brian Thomas Jr. on crossing routes and utilize Lawrence’s legs on rollouts. Parker Washington has become a dangerous weapon and Jakobi Meyers is reliable underneath.
Denver defended play-action relatively well last season. Only two quarterbacks — Jaxson Dart and Jalen Hurts — finished with 100+ ratings on play-action passes. But the NFL is shifting more and more toward heavy formations and play-action passes. Kansas City’s offense was under center on more than 43% of Mahomes’ dropbacks against the Broncos, a single-game high for the Chiefs in a Mahomes start, .
Broncos defensive tackle Zach Allen called play action, screens and complex running games “the flavor of the year with the offenses.”
“Not just in our game, but you look across the league with a lot of good defenses and it was really similar. … It’s our reality. We have to figure out a way to win first downs so we can do what we do best,” .
Play action can slow the impact of opposing pass rushes, as Jaguars coach Liam Coen has noted in interviews. Coen was complimentary of Denver’s defensive line in his press conference this week, calling Allen one of the most “underrated players” in football and that Nik Bonitto has an excellent jump off the line of scrimmage — particularly at home. In what should be a raucous environment at Empower Field, the Broncos’ defense could thrive if it forces Jacksonville into third and longs. Otherwise, it might be another difficult day.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: The biggest part of this question is not what happens if Denver runs, but whether Denver will run the ball. The Broncos attempted just six runs in the first half against the Chiefs, when the game was well within reach. Coach Sean Payton said the team called some run-pass-options that ended up in Bo Nix throws, but Denver looked like it did not trust its running game. The Jaguars held talented Browns running back Quinshon Judkins to only 33 yards on 12 carries, so it could be tough sledding for Denver this week too. Slight edge: Jaguars
When Broncos pass: Nix is coming off arguably the worst game of his career. If he plays the way he did Monday night, the Broncos have no real path to a win against the Jaguars. But Denver’s offense has too much of a proven track record to overreact to one game. Nix played well against the Jaguars in the contest last season, and Jacksonville’s defense surrendered a 72% completion rate to Browns’ Deshaun Watson, albeit most of it coming in the fourth quarter. Edge: Broncos
When the Jaguars run: Walker’s Week 1 performance was shocking. The Broncos missed nearly 30 tackles, which players expect to be cleaned up this week. Walker’s also the “most talented pure rusher” in the league, according to Denver linebacker Justin Strnad. Bhayshul Tuten, who forced several missed tackles in Week 1, and backup running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. are a solid backfield duo, but they’re not the reigning Super Bowl MVP. I think the Broncos’ defense will take the Week 1 showing personally and play much stouter on Sunday. Edge: Broncos
When Jaguars pass: There aren’t many quarterbacks playing better football than Lawrence. The former No. 1 pick has put together all the tools that made him such a tantalizing prospect out of Clemson. Over the Jaguars’ past nine regular-season games, he’s thrown for 2,254 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Jacksonville lost running back Travis Etienne Jr. this offseason, but its wide receiver trio of Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. fits Coen’s offense well. The Broncos’ pass defense played well against the Chiefs, but the Jaguars’ passing game is humming. Edge: Jaguars
Special teams: Cam Little owns the NFL record for the longest kick, hit the league’s longest outdoor kick and once hit a 70-yard field goal in preseason. And none of those records came at altitude. If this game is close, which most analysts expect it to be, Little’s long-range leg could be a weapon for Coen. Logan Cooke is also a solid veteran punter for the Jaguars. Edge: Jaguars
DzԲ:Payton and Coen have some striking similarities. Coen used Payton’s comments about Jacksonville being a “small market” to motivate his team, a move Payton seemed to admire. Coen spoke glowingly about Payton this week, saying he’s learned “so much football” from the Broncos coach. He said he’s modeled some of his play calling after Payton.
Sean Payton joked to Liam Coen "I'm coming for you this year" at the NFL's owner's meeting, Coen said.
Coen said he's modeled some of his play-calling after Payton. Said he's learned a ton from coach. Last year obviously had the "small-market" drama lol.
— Sam Jane (@sam_jane230)
“You just listen to the stories and a lot of it is insightful in ways. You can learn something from every conversation from him,” Coen said.
But Coen’s on a strong stretch as a coach right now, while Payton turned over play-calling duties to new offensive coordinator Davis Webb. Advantage to the young guy. Edge: Jaguars
Tale of the tape
| Stat | Broncos | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 176 (32nd) | 360 (14th) |
| Rush offense | 61 (31st) | 126 (11th) |
| Pass offense | 115 (32nd) | 234 (10th) |
| Points per game | 10 (tied for 28th) | 34 (6th) |
| Total defense | 392 (24th) | 272 (10th) |
| Run defense | 220 (31st) | 87 (9th) |
| Pass defense | 172 (1oth) | 185 (tied for 13th) |
| Points allowed | 31 (23rd) | 10 (tied for 2nd) |
By the numbers
60.4%: The number of times the Jaguars ran a play from under center in Week 1, the fourth-highest in the NFL.
2:Targets and receiving yards for Jaylen Waddle in the Broncos’ season-opener. Expect Denver to involve its prized acquisition more in Week 2.
25.9%:Denver’s stuff rate, where the ball carrier is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage, on Jacksonville runs in the Week 16 matchup last season.
121:R.J. Harvey’s all-purpose yards against the Jaguars last year, a career-high.
X-factors
DzԳDz:Alex Singleton. The maligned linebacker had a difficult day against the Chiefs, missing five tackles and struggling in coverage. He seemed unbothered by the difficulties wrapping up Kenneth Walker II postgame, saying “we’re gonna be fine.” The Broncos will need their veteran linebacker to play a complete game against a Jacksonville team that frequently uses play-action and motion to try and deceive opposing linebackers.
Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr. Patrick Surtain II guarded Thomas for most of the matchup last season, holding the LSU product to two receptions for 18 yards on three targets. It’ll be interesting to see whether defensive coordinator Vance Joseph elects to implement the same strategy again this year, or if he’ll leave Surtain on one side of the field with Washington’s rise. If he does, Thomas has the potential to hit a few big plays on crossing routes and deep balls. The wideout did pop up on the injury report with a shoulder injury this week, but Coen said he expects him to play.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 21, Jaguars 20
Sean Payton’s team should come out and play mad. The defense will tackle better, almost by default. The offense should find more chances to sustain drives than it generated Monday Night. The Jags, though, have the weapons to drop Denver to 0-2. If that happens, there’s trouble on the Front Range. The bet here is the Broncos stave it off. Barely.
Sam Jane, Broncos writer: Jaguars 27, Broncos 24
I think the Broncos will play much better than they did on Monday night. The problem is, I believe the Jaguars are a sleeping giant in the AFC. Lawrence is on a heater right now, and Washington’s emergence has given him a true No. 1 receiver. Denver should tackle better and Nix can’t play much worse. It’ll be a close game throughout, but Little’s powerful leg will hit a game-winning field goal to send Denver into a 0-2 hole.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 27, Jaguars 26
Good teams respond from bad games. This Sunday, we are about to find out if the Broncos are a legitimate AFC force or will be scrambling to reach the playoffs. Since 2020, when the field expanded, teams that open 0-2 reduce their postseason probability to 15.7%. This is not a get-right game. It is a matter of an attitude adjustment, of showing toughness. Get Bo Nix under center, run the ball, and set up play action. And go back to fundamentals on defense, where tackling, not sacks, matters more than anything else. There is no such thing as a must-win game in Week 2, but this about as close as it gets when looking at opponents ahead.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 24, Jaguars 23
The Broncos aren’t as bad as they looked at Arrowhead, but they can’t be as awful as the Browns, right? Right? I don’t care if Davis Webb or Sean Payton are calling the offense — run the dang ball. Over Jacksonville’s last 18 regular-season games, opponents are 2-1 when recording 26 or more rushes in a game, and 1-7 when that number is 20 carries or fewer. Nix and Payton rallied from an 0-2 hole two years ago, but those are rare beasts. Over his career, Sunshine Sean’s opened a season 0-2 seven times. Only five of those teams went on to reach the playoffs, and the ’24 Broncos were one of them.
Nate Peterson, sports editor: Jaguars 34, Broncos 24
Yes, one week isn’t a reason to overreact, but these same Jags came into Denver last year and tattooed the Broncos. On a short week, Denver is already at a disadvantage. Denver should tackle better, should be more committed to the run, and Jaylen Waddle should catch more than one ball for 2 yards, but it’s still not going to be enough to avoid an 0-2 start. Get ready for it to get weird early in Denver.
