The bye week arrives at a useful time for Colorado football. Seven games remain, and the first one is against the best team left on the schedule.
To reach six wins and bowl eligibility, the Buffaloes (2-3, 0-2 Big 12) need four victories in their final seven games. Their remaining opponents are a combined 23-8, three of them are ranked, and Colorado has lost three straight.
The road to a bowl game hasn’t closed. It’s narrowing by the week.
The most realistic route runs through the four unranked teams left on the schedule: Kansas State, Arizona State, Cincinnati and UCF. Win all four, and Colorado gets to six wins without a major upset. Drop one, and the Buffs would need to beat a ranked team, something they couldn’t do against No. 12 Texas Tech.
Under head coach Deion Sanders, Colorado is 5-6 against these seven programs. Here’s how the games stack up, from most winnable to least.
Best chances
UCF (Nov. 28, Folsom Field): The Knights (3-2, 1-1) have the least productive offense left on Colorado’s schedule at 350.8 yards per outing. Starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been out with a hamstring injury, leaving the job to Keyonte Jenkins. Colorado won the only meeting, 48-21 in Orlando in 2024, and this one is at Folsom. The catch is UCF’s defense, which has forced 10 turnovers in five games.
At Arizona State (Nov. 7): The Sun Devils (2-2, 1-1) have allowed 355.3 yards per game and turned it over eight times in four outings. Baylor, which beat Colorado 23-13, won by a 55-19 score in Tempe on Saturday. Arizona State can still throw it. Reed Harris leads the Big 12 in receiving yards (499) and is tied with Colorado’s Joseph Williams for the league lead in touchdown catches with five. A familiar name is in the mix, too: former Buff Omarion Miller, who had 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns for Colorado last season, has 25 catches for 234 and two scores. The Sun Devils also won 42-17 in Boulder last season.
Coin flips
Kansas State (Oct. 31, Folsom Field): The Wildcats (3-1, 0-1) have won the past two meetings. Their defense has allowed only 106.3 yards per contest through the air. On the ground, where Colorado’s offense is built, opponents have averaged 139.8 rushing yards per game and 4.0 a carry. Quarterback Avery Johnson has run for 291 yards, averaging 9.7 yards a carry. K-State lost its Big 12 opener 31-26 at Cincinnati, and home field gives Colorado a slight lean.
At Cincinnati (Nov. 21): The Bearcats (4-1, 1-1) beat K-State, then lost 34-7 at Arizona on Saturday. The run defense has allowed 141.6 yards per game and 4.5 yards a carry, an opening for Colorado’s ground game. The problem is the other side of the ball. Cincinnati has turned it over twice all season, and quarterback JC French hasn’t thrown an interception in 123 attempts. Colorado has never played there.
Hail Marys
At Oklahoma State (Oct. 24): The No. 18 Cowboys (3-1, 1-0) beat then-No. 6 Oregon in week two, and Drew Mestemaker leads the Big 12 at 317.8 passing yards per outing. They’ve also been giving the ball away, with eight turnovers in four games. Their defense has allowed 158.8 rushing yards a game. Colorado won 52-0 the last time the teams met, in 2024.
Houston (Nov. 13, Folsom Field): The No. 22 Cougars (4-1, 1-1) lost by two at Texas Tech and have held opponents to an average of 65.4 rushing yards each week at 2.6 yards a carry. Conner Weigman has thrown 11 touchdowns with one interception. Houston won 36-20 last season.
Utah (Oct. 17, Folsom Field): No. 12 Utah (4-0, 1-0) is the toughest draw, and it comes first. The Utes have outgained opponents by 232.8 yards per contest. They average 225.8 yards per game while holding opponents to just 84.0 per game on the ground. Opponents are completing 46.9% of their passes. Colorado won 49-24 at Folsom in 2024, then lost 53-7 in Salt Lake City last season.
Reality check
Put it together, and six wins is within reach but the odds are against it. Even the best case scenario sends Colorado to Tempe and Cincinnati, and the Buffs have lost seven straight Big 12 road games. A team that has lost 11 turnovers in five games has little margin for error.
