Broncos at Chargers
When: 2:05 p.m. Sunday
³:SoFi Stadium
ճ:CBS
Radio: 850 AM, 94.1 FM
Series: The two teams have played 133 times. The Broncos lead the series convincingly, . But since the Chargers moved to Los Angeles, the “Bolts” lead the series 10-8 and have won three of the last four games.
In the spotlight: Can Sean Payton solve Jim Harbaugh?
No coach has hexed Payton quite like Harbaugh. Payton is 2-5 against Harbaugh across the two coaches’ careers, including a 1-3 record as the Broncos’ coach.
Denver earned its first win over Harbaugh and the Chargers last season with a 19-3 Week 18 win . While the win clinched the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed for the Broncos, the Chargers rested many of their starters (including quarterback Justin Herbert) ahead of the postseason.
The Broncos considered and interviewed Harbaugh during their 2023 head coaching search, although Harbaugh ultimately decided to return to the University of Michigan for another season. Harbaugh and apEO Greg Penner spoke multiple times before Harbaugh called Penner to tell him he was staying at Michigan, according to previous reporting by The Denver Post.
“I was excited that he got a job in our league, but not so much in our division,” Payton said when Harbaugh was hired.
Since then, the two coaches have squared off four times. Los Angeles won three straight one-score games against the Broncos to start Harbaugh’s tenure. In 2024, Payton elected not to run out the clock with 41 seconds left in the first half. After the Chargers caught a fair catch with no time remaining, Harbaugh used a fair-catch free kick to score before the half.
Teams drastically change from year to year in the NFL. It’s hard to draw many conclusions from the Chargers-Broncos history for Sunday’s contest. No team has started 0-5 and made the playoffs, so the Chargers clearly need this win. Payton will certainly want to prove his decision to take over play-calling from offensive coordinator Davis Webb was a prudent one. It should make for a fun matchup.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: This is a stoppable force vs. a movable object. The Broncos’ rushing offense is one of the worst in football, and the Chargers’ rushing defense is not far behind. Los Angeles has allowed multiple 100-yard rushers this year, including 81 yards to Seattle Seahawks third-string back Emanuel Wilson last week. Denver’s J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey have not crossed the 50-yard mark so far this year. Don’t expect the Broncos’ ground game to suddenly explode, but they could be in for a stronger showing against the Chargers. Slight edge: Chargers
When Broncos pass: Bo Nix played the worst game of his season, and potentially the worst of his career, last week against the 49ers. He looked flustered, unconfident and unwilling to push the ball downfield. Nix has been known to rebound after bad outings in his career, and he’ll get to face a Chargers defense that has allowed 211.8 passing yards per game. But the numbers are slightly deceiving. Los Angeles’ secondary has actually fared relatively well against the pass. Harbaugh’s team picked off Bills superstar Josh Allen twice and intercepted Seahawks Sam Darnold on Seattle’s first drive . Slight edge: Broncos
When Chargers run: Experts pegged Omarion Hampton as a breakout candidate of the year after offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel arrived in Los Angeles this offseason. The sentiment was that Hampton, an extremely talented back, would be paired with one of the best run-game schemes in football. Instead, Hampton has not crossed 100 yards in a game this year and last week he only got nine carries against the Seahawks. Los Angeles’ ground game is still potent, but this isn’t the devastating group some thought it might be. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ defensive line just had their best showing of the season against Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers. Slight Edge: Broncos
When Chargers pass: Herbert looks completely lost in McDaniel’s offense. The talent is still there, but Herbert has staggered to a dismal start. Herbert has taken 12 sacks and completed 71-of-119 passes (59.7% completion rate) for 816 yards. He’s thrown four touchdowns to six interceptions. Oh, and the Chargers could be starting four rookie offensive linemen this week. The quarterback played better in the second half against the Seahawks, leading Los Angeles on three straight scoring drives. The Broncos will likely be without top corners Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, which negates some of the advantage they would normally have. Still, Denver should win this matchup. Edge: Broncos
Special Teams: The Chargers have one of the best kickers in football in Cameron Dicker. Broncos fans will remember Dicker’s half-ending kick in SoFi Stadium, but here’s to Payton not letting that happen again. Jeremy Crawshaw has been excellent at flipping the field, while JK Scott is past his prime. Edge: Broncos
Coaching: Harbaugh has held the advantage over Payton since he took the Los Angeles job. Both teams hired new offensive coordinators this offseason and neither has lived up to the lofty preseason expectations through four weeks. Denver has Vance Joseph, though, which is enough to give it a big advantage in this contest. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Stat | Broncos | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 280.3 (27th) | 306.8 (21st) |
| Rush offense | 81.3 (29th) | 121.5 (9th) |
| Pass offense | 199 (20th) | 185.3 (24th) |
| Points per game | 18.5 (27th) | 16.8 (29th) |
| Total defense | 375.0 (28th) | 333.5 (16th) |
| Run defense | 142.8 (29th) | 121.8 (22nd) |
| Pass defense | 232.3 (21st) | 211.8 (14th) |
| Points allowed | 23.5 (17th) | 26.5 (24th) |
By the numbers
4-6.Herbert’s touchdown-to-interception ratio through four weeks. Denver’s defensive unit has said it wants to take the football away more. This week is a good chance to do that.
55%.The rate of pressure Herbert faced against the Seahawks, according to Next Gen Stats.
0.Number of first downs Denver has accumulated on its first drive of the game.
-29.Rush yards behind expected from Dobbins.
X-factors
Chargers: Keaton Mitchell.
The first running back in this section, Mitchell played the most snaps of any running back in the Chargers’ loss to the Seahawks. The elusive back has transferred over well to Los Angeles from Baltimore. Mitchell is a good receiving back, has home-run type speed and is fluid. If he continues to play over Hampton, watch for Herbert to look his way out of the backfield.
Broncos: RJ Harvey.
It’s debatable whether Harvey’s target share benefits the Broncos’ offense, but he’s been the team’s most productive pass-catcher recently. Harvey’s getting more and more snaps and outplayed Dobbins last week.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 23, Chargers 13:
The big news of the week is Sean Payton taking over the offensive play-calling from Davis Webb. Another reality: The Chargers are a mess. They’re the first bad team Denver’s faced so far this season. The Broncos’ first four opponents are 13-3 overall, including 11-1 against teams other than Denver. If the Broncos can get out ahead early, they’ll be in great shape. Plus, L.A. might start four rookies on the offensive line. Justin Herbert has been hit 50 times already this year. Nik Bonitto and Co. should be licking their chops.
Sam Jane, Broncos writer: Broncos 24, Chargers 13.
Look, last week was bad for the Broncos. No doubt. They lost their two top corners, leaving their DB room stretched to bare bones. But the Chargers give serious broken vibes. Things don’t seem to be trending in the right direction, and 0-4 seems slightly past the point of return. Broncos don’t roll here, but they do enough to take home their first comfortable win in a while.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 23, Chargers 19
The Broncos’ first goal every season is to win the AFC West. That dream will head south if they lose to the winless Chargers. The Chargers are desperate. No team has started 0-5 and made the playoffs. L.A. will look to run the ball down Denver’s throat, while cleaning up an endless battery of penalties. With Sean Payton calling plays, the Broncos will look to start faster. Scoring a first-quarter touchdown will prove critical as the Broncos hold on late.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 25, Chargers 20
The Bolts’ walking wounded seem to be the perfect foil, on paper, for a Broncos “get-well” weekend. Derwin James (hamstring, pinky) and Ladd McConkey (foot) are hobbling. Starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are out. Chargers OC Mike McDaniel, Smoky Hill’s finest, wishes he had Davis Webb’s job right about now. But that’s still Keaton Mitchell and Omarion Hampton running the ball. That’s still Talanoa Hufanga missing tackles. The coach on the other sideline is still Jim Harbaugh. This is still the NFL, where winless teams can rise like zombie undead, bite you on the backside and infect your season. Mind you, if Sean Payton didn’t want this game badly, he wouldn’t have taken back his call sheet.
