Either , or the rest of us need our heads examined.
As recently as Oct. 7, the popular football analytics site PFF.com declared that the Broncos, who are on first and 10, possess the best offensive line in the NFL. ESPN Analytics says the Broncos, who averaged 5.4 yards per carry on first and 10 a year ago, The truth is somewhere in the middle, surely.
“Data is misleading,” , told me Monday. “That’s the rule, right?”
If you can’t trust the numbers, how can you trust your eyes when Sunday’s win over the Chargers made you want to gouge them out
Left guard Ben Powers was having protection issues. So was center Luke Wattenberg, whose shotgun snap to Bo Nix’s left with about a minute left in the second quarter started a play that summed up the afternoon for No. 10. While Nix surveyed what was in front of him, drifting as he scanned, left tackle Garett Bolles was stonewalling a Chargers defender for four-and-a-half seconds. Heck, Bolles appeared to be playing the role of human eraser, steering his man completely away from trouble …
So is this offensive line letting Super Bo down? Or has it really been the other way ’round through a brutal five weeks on the fight card?
“I’m watching the film offensively,” Broncos coach Sean Payton told reporters Monday as his team prepares for a visit from Seattle, the defending Super Bowl champions, on Thursday night. “And there are a ton of things we’re not doing well right now. So that has to improve.”
Heading into Week 5, PFF ranked the Broncos’ offensive line No. 1 in the NFL. Yet reality feels closer to ESPN’s scouting, doesn’t it? The Worldwide Leader updates its “Team Win Rate” analytics every week, and after four games, the Broncos’ line graded out very much like a .500 pocket protecting a .500 team (2-2). Denver ranked 23rd in pass-block “win rate,” at 46%; and 20th in run-block “win rate,” at 73%.
So how do we square that circle? What are we missing? Who can we blame when Nix, Captain Pocket Awareness, is suddenly walking into sacks all on his own?
“There could be a variety of factors. (The players) might check their PFF (grades) and say, ‘Oh, I actually had a good game,'” Harris replied.
“Sometimes, you’ve just got to decide you’re going to do it better and focus on those little things. Get out to practice a little earlier. Practice your hand placement. Practice your communication. And all those things are within this offensive line’s grasp.”
Overall, Harris sees what the stat wonks see. Namely, that the Broncos’ blockers are taking turns having individual brain cramps, and it only takes one to nuke a given play. And that some individuals — Bolles and right guard Quinn Meinerz in particular — have had fewer brain cramps through the opening five games of the campaign.
“I think Bolles is playing some of his best football. I mean, it is really fun to watch Meinerz, and they get it,” Harris said. “They get the opportunity, they’ve got their minds and bodies prepared …
“On the flip side. It just seems like there’s a little too much comfort. There’s comfort in third and 12; there’s comfort in jumping offsides; there’s comfort in penalties in the red zone. (The idea) that, ‘No matter what we do, we can overcome it.’ That may be a fact, but it just looks like a little too much comfort creeping in.”
As for repelling that comfort, Harris has two suggestions, and good ones, too. First, get Nix under center more and run it from under center more. Second, for Nix’s linemen to clean up sloppy and inconsistent mechanics.
“There are two aspects of the (Broncos’) run game that have yet to be activated,” Harris noted. “The first is under-center runs. Get under center (to) even it up for the back, so the back’s coming downhill instead of lateral to start a play, and gets to the line of scrimmage a full second faster.
“The second aspect is, there has got to be more honor in the craft. One of the things that offensive lines always talk about is not making the same mistake twice. But because of (this) offensive line’s focus, they can’t go on ‘2,’ they cannot change the snap count, which makes every single pass protection for Bo Nix fraught with peril, at times.”
Which puts the onus back on Payton, especially with Sunshine Sean calling the plays. As noted several times during the CBS broadcast, the Chargers have joined the parade of defenses going at Nix and the Broncos with a base of two-deep safeties. That’s cluttering up the route tree, as you’d prefer to have one of those defenders closer to the box. The best way to make that safety creep up is to help in run support, which means rushing the ball more consistently early. It’s a vicious cycle, granted. But it’s also a rut the Broncos might get out of if they could establish the run earlier and get those safeties moving.
“You can’t eat breakfast in one bite,” Harris said, “and you can’t get a run game going without fighting through the 1- and 2-yard gains in the first quarter. (And you) definitely don’t start a drive with play-action pass when you’re not running the ball.”
To wit: Harris also noticed that at one point Sunday at SoFi, the Broncos ran play-action out of wide zone when they hadn’t actually rushed the ball out of a wide zone look first.
“This offensive line is just barely scratching the surface of its success,” Harris stressed. “I can’t wait for them to find it and to demand it of themselves and each other. And when they do, I really don’t think there’s a defensive line in the entire NFL that can compete. And we’re still a long way from Week 23. Which is when the Super Bowl is, right?”
Amen. But until the ground game shapes up, and Nix along with it, Feb. 14 is starting to feel farther and farther away.
