Seahawks at Broncos
When: 6:15 p.m.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: KMGH-7, Prime
Radio: 850 AM, 94.1 FM
:Unfortunately for Denver fans, the most memorable game from this series went Seattle’s way. Memories of Peyton Manning walking up to the line of scrimmage on the first offensive play of Super Bowl XLVIII, only to watch center Manny Ramirez snap the ball over his head, will assuredly play on Thursday’s broadcast. The Broncos have dominated the series, though, winning 35 of the 58 games. One of those games was Bo Nix’s first NFL start against the Seahawks on Sept. 8, 2024.
In the spotlight: Can a depleted Broncos defense force red-zone stops and turnovers?
Winning back-to-back Super Bowls is so difficult that only eight franchises have ever done it. The Seahawks aren’t one of them, and they’re seeing the reasons why in their quest to repeat.
Seattle is missing running back Kenneth Walker, who departed in free agency for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Seahawks’ running game has declined dramatically since, leaving them with a one-dimensional offense. That’s a far cry from the unit that rode a versatile play-action game, with a few explosive runs each night, to a Lombardi Trophy.
Opposing defenses have forced Seattle into some of the league’s most difficult third-down situations. Teams are blitzing Seattle, just as opposing defensive coordinators blitz the Broncos on third down. Sam Darnold is facing the second-highest third-down blitz rate in the league, while Nix isn’t far behind.
“Certainly it’ll keep coming if you don’t have ways to beat it,” coach Sean Payton said Tuesday about the Broncos’ struggles with the same issues.
On a short week, teams have less time to scout their opponents’ defenses. That could be a good sign for defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, who will match wits with Seattle first-year offensive coordinator Brian Fleury. Joseph’s exotic blitzes are known to trick quarterbacks, and Que Robinson said the Broncos know they’ll have to try to fool Darnold with some disguises. That can force the quarterback off his spot, which is when he tends to put the ball in harm’s way.
Darnold is prone to throwing interceptions, and Denver has capitalized on those opportunities more often this year. The defense will be missing Pat Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga, the team’s two best secondary players, but other talented defensive backs will get a crack at Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks wide receiver who is on pace to break the NFL’s receiving yards record.
If the Broncos can force Darnold into some dangerous third-down throws, they could give their offense advantageous starting field position. That’s what the defense did in the fourth quarter last week, helping carry the Broncos offense to a third win of the year. The Broncos mayhave to do more of the same Thursday to secure a victory.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: J.K. Dobbins was all smiles after the Broncos’ win over the Chargers, thrilled to have Payton back in the driver’s seat. While Dobbins had his most productive game of the year, it wasn’t as if Denver’s ground game was potent. The Broncos still averaged 3.7 yards per carry, right in line with their season average of 3.6 yards per carry with Davis Webb calling the shots. Seattle’s run defense isn’t as stingy as last year, when it ranked third in the league, but it’s still holding opponents to 100 rushing yards per game. Christian McCaffrey became the first running back to cross the 50-yard threshold against the Seahawks last week. It’s hard to see Denver moving the ball on the ground Thursday. Edge: Seahawks
When Broncos pass: What’s happening with Bo Nix? That’s the question dominating conversations in apountry over the past two weeks, and rightfully so. Nix has not looked like the quarterback who led the Broncos to an AFC Championship Game appearance and a No. 1 seed last year. Instead, he’s looked more like the wide-eyed rookie who made his debut in Seattle two years ago. He’ll try to get back on track against one of football’s most respected defensive minds: Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald. In the teams’ last meeting, Nix completed 26 passes for a meager 138 yards and threw two interceptions. His 47.5 passer rating remains a career low. Nix is obviously a different player than he was two years ago, but the Broncos will need their quarterback to snap out of his funk to win. Edge: Seahawks
When Seahawks run: The reigning Super Bowl champions weren’t elite at running the football last year, but as the Broncos saw in Week 1, Kenneth Walker can turn small creases into touchdowns. Now that Walker is gone, the Seahawks’ running game has cratered. Rookie running back Jadarian Price is on injured reserve, and it doesn’t sound like Zach Charbonnet will play Thursday. That means George Holani — who fumbled twice against the 49ers — and Emanuel Wilson are tasked with leading the backfield. Over five games, the Seahawks average 3.8 yards per rush, while Denver’s run defense is starting to find its form. Edge: Broncos
When Seahawks pass: Smith-Njigba is on a historic pace. He’s surrounded by some strong supporting players, too, including veteran Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed. Then there is quarterback Sam Darnold. An enigmatic player, Darnold led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl with strong postseason play. But the turnover issues that have plagued him throughout his career have resurfaced this season. Darnold threw two interceptions against the 49ers last Sunday, pushing his total to five over the past three games. He’s susceptible to pressure, and the Broncos’ front four excels at generating it at home.
“Just got to be better taking care of the football,” Darnold said. Slight edge: Seahawks
Special teams: Jay Harbaugh, the son of Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, coaches the Seahawks’ special teams. Shaheed is one of the best returners in football, with four kick returns for touchdowns in his career. Seattle’s punt coverage unit also forced a fumble against the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, Denver kicker Wil Lutz missed another field goal, and Sean Fresch made his kick-returning debut against the Chargers. Slight edge: Seahawks
DzԲ:Macdonald and Payton got into a bit of a spat over a 2024 story in which Payton accused the Seahawks of cheating during training camp. Macdonald said in an interview that his team had pulled “like 100 plays” from videos posted by fans in Broncos training camp before the two teams’ season-opening game in 2024.
Macdonald apologized and the two coaches said “they’re good” in training camp. The story will make its way onto national television Thursday, and it will be interesting to see if Payton’s second game back as play-caller goes any better against arguably the best “defensive coordinator” in football. Underrated part of this game, though: Joseph vs. Fleury. Slight edge: Seahawks
Tale of the tape
| Stat | Broncos | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 269 (30th) | 328 (8th) |
| Rush offense | 86.2 (25th) | 106 (17th) |
| Pass offense | 182.8 (25th) | 222 (16th) |
| Points per game | 19.4 (26th) | 26.8 (8th) |
| Total defense | 347.4 (21st) | 251.2 (1st) |
| Run defense | 145.2 (29th) | 100.4 (11th) |
| Pass defense | 202.2 (9th) | 150.8 (1st) |
| Points allowed | 22.4 (13th) | 21.2 (8th) |
By the numbers
47.5:Bo Nix’s passer rating in his debut against the Seahawks, which is still a career-low.
20.2%:The Seahawks’ blitz rate, which is one of the lowest in the NFL.
1,982: The receiving yards Smith-Njigba is on pace for, which would break a league record.
3:The number of official drops Waddle has this year, although other passes have been catchable.
X-factors
Seahawks: Byron Murphy II
Few defensive tackles are more disruptive than Murphy right now. Few 300-plus-pound players can move the way Seattle’s best defender can. He’s a force against the run and brings significant pass-rushing pressure up the middle.
A good interior defensive lineman can collapse the pocket and frustrate quarterbacks, including a frantic one like Nix right now. Between Murphy and Leonard Williams, Seattle’s interior defensive line can completely derail a game plan. The Broncos’ guards and centers have struggled in pass protection this year. They’ll need to be at their best Thursday.
Broncos: Courtland Sutton
Sutton is saying all the right things to the media and fans, telling them he understands his time will come and that it’s about showing up with the right attitude. Make no mistake, though: Sutton wants the ball. He needs to get open more, but Denver will also want to manufacture touches for the 31-year-old receiver.
Sutton had one of his best seasons last year but has largely gone unnoticed with Waddle’s addition. Improved play from Nix might not help anyone more than Sutton, who has publicly backed his quarterback time and again. With a great cornerback in Devon Witherspoon likely to spend a lot of time on Waddle, Sutton could draw some favorable matchups.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Seahawks 19, Broncos 16:
Denver’s offense has struggled to find a consistent gear and now faces one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Broncos defense will have chances to take the ball away from Sam Darnold and company, but will that be enough? On a short week without Pat Surtain II, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and company have just enough to drop Sean Payton’s team to 3-3.
Sam Jane, Broncos writer: Broncos 17, Seahawks 14
I’ve flip-flopped on this one all week. At first blush, I thought Seattle would cruise because of its advantage at the wideout position and the dominant defense it’s played. Those elements are still very real, but as the week progressed, the Broncos’ defense forcing takeaways seemed increasingly realistic. It’s a late interception or strip sack that sets the Broncos and Wil Lutz up for the game-winning field goal, which he drills as time expires.
Troy Renck, columnist: Seahawks 22, Broncos 19
Seattle is the wrong opponent for a get-right game for Bo Nix. As Nix deals with the mental demons of turning the ball over, he faces a Seattle team that leads the NFL in takeaways. Because Seattle is not running well and Sam Darnold remains prone to force a few throws, Denver should stay within striking distance. But the Broncos won’t be unable to overcome their latest slow start.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Seahawks 24, Broncos 23
Bo Nix may not be broken, but No. 10 this week sure sounded like a guy who’s not just scared to fail, or scared to turn the ball over — he’s practically mortified. Nix is great at home. Sean Payton is great in October. But Seattle wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba against the Broncos’ backups in the secondary is … not great, Bob. Like, at all.
