State economists released new figures Tuesday that show a smaller increase in state spending this year – a change opponents of November’s budget-reform referendums immediately attacked as politically motivated.
Economists downsized the total state budget from $15.1 billion to $14.6 billion after they found about $500 million had been counted twice. The change meant spending grew 4.2 percent, not 7.7 percent as originally thought.
The state’s chief economist defended the numbers and said there was no political motivation behind the change.
But Jon Caldara, chairman of the campaign opposing two ballot measures that ask voters to let the state keep more money, said the economists were “pressured to change their story.”
Caldara’s think tank, the Independence Institute, has been running radio ads saying state government spending grew 7 percent this year, making it the largest state budget in history.
The newly released numbers negate that claim when inflation is taken into account.
Republican House leader Joe Stengel, also an opponent of the ballot measures, said proponents were “cooking the books to pass to C and D.”
Referendum C would ask voters to allow the state to keep between $2.9 billion and $3.6 billion more over the next five years than it is currently allowed to under the constitutional revenue limits of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights.
Referendum D would allow the state to issue what is essentially $2.1 billion in loans to pay for transportation and other improvements.
Supporters say the measures are needed to help the state recover from the recent recession, when lawmakers cut more than $1 billion in programs.
Mike Mauer, the legislature’s chief economist, said he and his staff take their nonpartisan status seriously.
“We work for both sides and we put out what we find to be the best data, and the last thing I’m going to do is change the data for either side,” he said.
Mauer explained that he was using appropriations data, which had a growth rate of about 7 percent, but because the data is used for budgeting it includes double counting.
For instance, $500 million was counted once when it was put into the newly created College Opportunity Fund and again when it was distributed to each college or university.
The appropriations growth, Mauer said, was mistakenly interpreted as spending growth.
By removing one of the biggest double counts, the $500 million, he said the figure comes closer to actual spending growth. He said his staff is still working to find and remove other double counts.
Katy Atkinson, spokeswoman for the Vote Yes on C&D campaign, said “regardless of what number you use … this state has huge financial needs” that could be funded if Referendums C and D pass.
To the opposition’s claim that economists are cooking the books, Atkinson said, “It seems to me that when you lack any factual basis for your arguments, you start claiming there’s a conspiracy.”
Staff writer Chris Frates can be reached at 303-820-1633 or cfrates@denverpost.com.
