The Arctic Ocean’s ice is melting, and there is no way to stop it, scientists reported Tuesday.
The region eventually will go ice-free several months of the year, something that hasn’t happened for 800,000 years, the researchers wrote in Eos, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
The repercussions are probably wide-ranging but difficult to predict, said Mark Serreze, a co-author of the new report and a climate scientist at the University of Colorado.
Polar bears could disappear, the U.S. Southwest could dry out and villages in parts of Alaska may need to move farther inland, to escape waves, erosion and storms, Serreze said.
“If we don’t do something about the emissions of greenhouse gases, and we would have to do a lot, it’s probably inevitable,” said Jonathan Overpeck, a University of Arizona climate expert and the study’s lead author.
Two years ago, a group of 30 ice experts, chemists, computer modelers and plant experts spent a week in Big Sky, Mont., hammering out a general theory of Arctic ice – involving the chemical, physical and biological factors that affect the ice.
They concluded that if the Arctic continues to warm, summertime ice could disappear completely within 100 years.
The group then spent two days trying to prove itself wrong, poring over all the factors that could slow the melting of Arctic ice, Serreze said. For example, they questioned whether a warmer Arctic would create more clouds and cool the surface. The conclusion: not enough to save the ice.
“Nothing can slow it down enough to stop it,” Overpeck concluded. “I’d like to think I’m wrong.”
Overbeck says he is worried both for people in the Arctic, who may see the biggest changes, and for people around the world. The Arctic plays a crucial role in global weather patterns, researchers say, and its ice affects storm paths and the flow of ocean currents.
Staff writer Katy Human can be reached at 303-820-1910 or khuman@denverpost.com.
