New Orleans – When Hurricane Katrina hits today, it could turn one of America’s most charming cities into a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released by floodwaters from the city’s legendary cemeteries.
Experts have warned for years that the levees and pumps that usually keep New Orleans dry have no chance against a direct hit by a Category 5 storm.
That’s exactly what Katrina was as it churned toward the city.
With top sustained winds of 160 mph and the power to lift sea level by as much as 28 feet above normal, the storm threatened an environmental disaster of biblical proportions, one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless.
Louisiana State University Hurricane Center’s latest computer simulations indicate that by Tuesday, vast swaths of New Orleans could be under water up to 30 feet deep.
In the French Quarter, the water could reach 20 feet, easily submerging the district’s iconic cast-iron balconies and bars.
Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city’s houses will be destroyed by wind. With the flood damage, most of the people who live in and around New Orleans could be homeless.
“We’re talking about in essence having – in the continental United States – a refugee camp of a million people,” said Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the LSU center.
Aside from Hurricane Andrew, which struck Miami in 1992, forecasters have no experience with Category 5 hurricanes hitting densely populated areas.
“Hurricanes rarely sustain such extreme winds for much time. However, we see no obvious large-scale effects to cause a substantial weakening of the system, and it is expected that the hurricane will be of Category 4 or 5 intensity when it reaches the coast,” National Hurricane Center meteorologist Richard Pasch said.
As they raced to put meteorological instruments in Katrina’s path Sunday, wind engineers had little idea what their equipment would record.
“We haven’t seen something this big since we started the program,” said Kurt Gurley, a University of Florida engineering professor.
He works for the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program, which is in its seventh year of making detailed measurements of hurricane wind conditions using a set of mobile weather stations.
Experts have warned about New Orleans’ vulnerability for years, chiefly because Louisiana has lost more than a million acres of coastal wetlands in the past seven decades.
The vast patchwork of swamps and bayous south of the city serves as a buffer, partially absorbing the surge of water that a hurricane pushes ashore.
Experts have also warned that the ring of high levees around New Orleans, designed to protect the city from floodwaters coming down the Mississippi, will only make things worse in a powerful hurricane.
Katrina is expected to push a 28-foot storm surge against the levees. Even if they hold, water will pour over their tops and begin filling the city as if it were a sinking canoe.
After the storm passes, the water will have nowhere to go.
In a few days, van Heerden predicts, emergency management officials are going to be wondering how to handle a giant stagnant pond contaminated with building debris, coffins, sewage and other hazardous materials.
“We’re talking about an incredible environmental disaster,” van Heerden said.
