Baghdad, Iraq – Rebuffed in the constitution deliberations, Sunni Arabs now face a dilemma: Boycott the Oct. 15 referendum on a new charter and hand the Shiites a landslide victory, or take part in a vote that demographics suggest they’ll lose.
But the Shiite community itself is divided over the constitution, and interviews on Baghdad streets indicate the key federalism proposal may be a hard sell to many on both sides.
About 2,000 people, mostly Sunnis, marched Monday against the constitution in Sad dam Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit. Some carried pictures of Hussein and repeated chants heard in countless stage-managed protests during his regime: “We sacrifice our souls and blood for you, Saddam.”
Others carried pictures of radical Shiite clerics Muqtada al-Sadr and Jawad al-Khalisi, who have joined the Sunnis in opposing the constitutional draft because of federalism – which critics fear will lead to the disintegration of Iraq.
Sunni Arabs are urging followers to register by the Thursday deadline and reject the constitution in the referendum.
The very Sunni clerics who railed in January against an election “under foreign military occupation” are now urging their people to take part in both the referendum and the parliamentary balloting in December.
Rejection of the charter would mean elections in December for a new parliament under the rules of the interim constitution approved in March 2004 and still in effect. The new parliament would start the entire process of drafting a constitution from scratch.
Once the constitution becomes law, it cannot be amended for eight years; under the law now, the draft charter cannot be changed because it has been submitted to parliament.
Demographics are a big problem for the Sunni Arabs – an estimated 20 percent of Iraq’s 27 million people.
Sunni Arabs form the majority in four of the 18 provinces, but their numbers are overwhelming in only two, Anbar and Salahuddin.
Under a quirky election rule, a “no” vote by a two-thirds majority in any three provinces would defeat the referendum.
The three-province veto was a concession to the Kurds during negotiations for the March 2004 interim constitution. Now, it’s the Sunnis’ best card.
Demographic figures are unreliable because of the absence of a recent census and the ongoing conflict, which has prompted large numbers of people to relocate to safer areas within the country or in neighboring Jordan and Syria.
In many areas, the Sunni majority may not reach two-thirds. Each of the Sunni-dominated provinces contains substantial Shiite and Kurdish communities.
