Welcome to fearless predictions, 2005 edition. No apologies, no disclaimers, just biased prognostications from the couch.
Tonight’s Emmy Awards threaten to be the least suspenseful in years. The top winners will take their trophies in a walk:
ABC’s “Lost” will win as outstanding drama.
ABC’s “Desperate Housewives” will be named outstanding comedy. Of course it deserves to win in some hybrid category, but comedy will have to do. Like “Ally McBeal” before it, the hour-long “Desperate” is housed under the comedy label, illogically competing against traditional half-hour comedies like “Everybody Loves Raymond.”
While often looking backward instead of being attuned to the present, Emmy voters can’t help but acknowledge the two big shows of the year. Twin ABC wins are assured tonight when the 57th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards beams from Los Angeles’ Shrine Auditorium, locally at 7 on CBS.
This was the breakout year for “Lost,” which easily topped “Deadwood,” “Six Feet Under,” “24” and “The West Wing” in terms of sudden popularity, consistent suspense, terrific casting and slick production values. “24” had a great season, but there’s no denying this is “Lost’s” Emmy moment.
“Desperate Housewives” competes with half-hours “Arrested Development,” “Scrubs,” “Everybody Loves Raymond” and “Will & Grace” in the comedy category. “Arrested” deserves recognition, perhaps with its three writing nominations. But “Desperate” not only reinvigorated a network but also brought back buzz to network TV.
If Geoffrey Rush doesn’t win for his performance as Peter Sellers in the HBO movie “The Life and Death of Peter Sellers,” there is no justice. He inhabited the character – and the character’s many movie characters – in a stunning tour de force. Rush deserves to triumph over Kenneth Branaugh’s portrayal of FDR in “Warm Springs,” Jonathan Rhys Meyers’ turn as “Elvis,” Ed Harris in “Empire Falls” and William H. Macy in “The Wool Cap.”
Hugh Laurie of “House” deserves to win as best actor in a drama for his contentious curmudgeon, Dr. House, one of the most memorable new characters of the season. He’s up against the wonderful Ian
McShane of HBO’s “Deadwood,” but Emmy voters will tilt toward the Fox show. Hank Azaria of Showtime’s “Huff,” James Spader of ABC’s “Boston Legal” and Kiefer Sutherland of Fox’s “24” are in the running, but the newcomer should and will win.
Glenn Close, who passed through FX’s “The Shield” in what was essentially an extended guest role, will win as best actress in a drama. She had a wonderful turn as Capt. Monica Rawling, but is it fair to stake her against Jennifer Garner in “Alias,” Patricia Arquette” in “Medium,” Frances Conroy in “Six Feet Under” and Mariska Hargitay in “Law & Order: SVU”? What’s fairness got to do with it?
The final episode of “The Office” is nominated in the made-for-TV movie category, another uneasy fit. While that finale was poignant and funny, it wasn’t really a movie. Branaugh was terrific in “Warm Springs,” “Peter Sellers” was a great showcase for Rush, and “Lackawana Blues” was superlative. But “Empire Falls” boasts more major stars, starting with Harris, and will triumph. Either way, HBO will win the statuette. (Showtime’s worthy “Our Fathers,” a timely story of priests and pedophilia, wasn’t nominated.)
Have you seen the promos featuring Emmy host Ellen deGeneres demanding, “Find out what Eva Longoria’s wearing”? That shout-out is a consolation prize, since Longoria wasn’t nominated.
In the best comedy actress showdown, “Desperate Housewives” showmates Marcia Cross, Felicity Huffman and Teri Hatcher compete with perennials Patricia Heaton (“Everybody Loves Raymond”) and Jane Kaczmarek (“Malcolm in the Middle”). Despite sentiment for the departed “Raymond” cast, Hatcher will take home the prize. That said, nobody should be unhappy if Cross somehow steals the moment for her portrayal of endearingly neurotic Bree.
“Raymond” nostalgia will be a factor in the best comedy actor category as well. Ray Romano joins Jason Bateman (“Arrested Development”), Zack Braff (“Scrubs”), Eric McCormack (“Will & Grace”) and Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”) as nominees. Braff’s appealing innocence in the midst of the hospital insanity nicely offsets his comic antics. This is Braff’s first nomination, and it should be a sweet one.
TV critic Joanne Ostrow can be reached at 303-820-1830 or jostrow@denverpost.com.
