Cairo, Egypt – Iraq’s Sunni Arabs are mobilizing opposition to the draft constitution ahead of an Oct. 15 referendum, showing that the disquieted minority that forms the backbone of the insurgency is now taking part in the U.S.-backed political process.
Despite that silver lining, the constitution vote three weeks from now still carries the potential to further destabilize Iraq, no matter which way it goes. Approval may prove a pill too bitter for Sunnis to swallow, but rejection could throw the political process back a year and complicate the U.S. exit strategy.
Either outcome is likely to fuel the insurgency, and many fear that sectarian violence will grow.
Sunni tribal leaders and clerics meeting in Amman, Jordan, said over the weekend they were confident of mobilizing their communities to vote “no” in the referendum. But defeating the constitution could prove more difficult than they think, given majority Shiite support for the charter.
One senior Kurdish politician and lawmaker, Mahmoud Othman, put an optimistic twist on the Sunni comments.
“The mere fact that our Sunni Arab brothers are taking part in the vote is a positive,” he said. “A boycott would have been a negative.”
But the International Crisis Group, a respected Brussels- based think tank, warned Sunday that the constitutional dispute could push the country toward “full-scale civil war.”
It said, however, the draft was likely to be adopted Oct. 15, despite Sunni opposition, and called on the United States to intervene to secure an agreement.
“If the U.S. fails to play this role, the constitution is adopted on 15 October and a government is elected … without a strong political agreement underpinning its legitimacy, descent into civil war and disintegration, with mass expulsions in areas of mixed population, could well become a reality,” the report warned.
