Washington – This is not what the Republicans envisioned last fall, when they were returned to office as a powerful one-party government with a big agenda and – it seemed – little to fear from the opposition.
The indictment Wednesday of Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas, the House majority leader, was the latest in a series of scandals and setbacks that have buffeted Republican leaders in Congress and the Bush administration and transformed what might have been a victory lap into a hard political scramble.
Republicans are still managing to score some wins. Notable among them is John Roberts’ expected confirmation today as chief justice of the United States.
But their governing majority is showing major signs of strain.
In the House, DeLay’s indictment removes, even if temporarily, a powerful leader who managed to eke out, again and again, a narrow majority on some very difficult votes.
In the Senate, Republican ranks have been roiled this week by an investigation of Sen. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., their majority leader, who rose to power as a telegenic heart surgeon and citizen-politician, but is now under scrutiny for his stock dealings from a blind trust.
Moreover, the string of ethical issues so close together is a source of real anxiety in Republican circles.
The blowups include the indictment and continuing investigation of Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who was close to DeLay, and the arrest of David Safavian, a former White House budget official who was charged with lying to investigators and obstructing a federal inquiry involving Abramoff.
“Even though DeLay has nothing to do with Frist and Frist has nothing to do with Abramoff, how does it look? Not good,” said William Kristol, a key conservative strategist and editor of The Weekly Standard.
At the same time, the White House is still grappling with a federal criminal investigation into whether anyone leaked the name of an undercover CIA operative.
That investigation has brought both Karl Rove, President Bush’s top political adviser, and I. Lewis Libby, the chief of staff for Vice President Dick Cheney, before a grand jury.
And the Bush administration is struggling to steady itself after the slow response to Hurricane Katrina and defend itself from sweeping charges of incompetence and cronyism in homeland security.
The sheer scale and cost of Katrina have dramatically reordered the Republican agenda, creating more fractures in the caucus and more discontent among the party’s fiscal conservatives, who are appalled at the cost and the effect on the budget deficit.
Analysts say this wave of internal trouble is characteristic of a president’s second term – all the more so when the same party controls Congress.
“We know that second terms have historically been marred by hubris and by scandal,” said David Gergen, a former aide to presidents in both parties who is now director of Harvard’s Center for Public Leadership at the Kennedy School of Government.
“We’ve seen the hubris,” he added, alluding to Bush’s attempt to restructure Social Security, now completely stalled. “And now we’re seeing the scandals.”
Ross Baker, an expert on Congress and a political science professor at Rutgers, argues that the lack of normal checks and balances – with one party providing oversight from the Hill and an executive branch controlled by the opposing party, pushing back – also is a problem.
“What you’re stuck with is oversight as a product of scandal, a product of catastrophe,” Baker said. “It requires a blunder of major proportions, a calamity that is poorly addressed, before you get oversight.”