For years on the morning B bus from Boulder to Denver, Katharine Misken used to be among the few, the proud, the lonely.
That was before gas prices hit $3 a gallon.
Two weeks ago, her usual morning commuter bus pulled into the Table Mesa Park-n-Ride, which was so crammed there was no room – even for strap hangers. She was not allowed on.
“I couldn’t believe it,” said the 36-year-old, bumped from a bus once so empty most riders could count on spreading out over two seats. That day, Misken caught a carpool ride to her job at Qwest in downtown Denver with strangers, all similarly stranded and worried about being late for work.
Economists and environmentalists once predicted the public would embrace mass transit when the average price of gas reached $2 a gallon. That milestone came and went in the summer of 2004, with not much more than a sigh and a shrug as people dug deeper in their pockets. Then prices pushed past $2.50.
When the magic number hit $3 a gallon, it triggered at least a slight cooling of this nation’s love affair with cars. Some people started trading their SUVs for hybrids, while others have changed driving patterns. In the past four weeks, Americans used about 212,000 fewer gallons of gas per day in their cars than the same time a year ago, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.
But consumer-behavior experts say gas prices must rocket even higher before change becomes widespread. According to a new Green Gauge study by GfK NOP, a market research firm, gas prices need
to average $4 a gallon for an extended period of time before half of the nation makes significant lifestyle changes.
And gas costs will have to hit $5 a gallon before an overwhelming number of Americans make wholesale changes, including using public transportation and carpooling.
Dan Taylor, a 22-year-old stepping off the bus from Bailey in downtown Denver, said: “I bet (gas) would have to be double what it is for my friends to change their behavior. They love their cars.”
Scientists call this phenomenon a tipping point, where once a threshold is crossed, change occurs.
Brandi Bond, a 28-year-old regular on the 7:13 a.m. express in Westminster, just calls it harder and harder to find a parking place these days at the Wagon Road park-n-Ride lot.
And Erin Waller, an administrative assistant, calls it a budget stretched too thin. She used to drive in to Denver from Broomfield because she liked the freedom of her car. But a month ago, when filling her
Oldsmobile Alero began to cost more than $35, she bought a bus pass and left her car at home.
Scott Reed, a spokesman for the Regional Transportation District, says ridership has grown to standing-room-only capacity on many routes in recent weeks, sparking complaints to his agency of overcrowded parking lots and inefficient connections.
If standing-room only persists on some routes, the agency may have to consider adding service, RTD officials say.
“We’re going to balance demand and increases in ridership with service improvements,” Reed said. But, he adds, RTD needs a fare increase to help pay for any additional service, as well as the higher price of diesel fuel.
While new converts to public transportation bring increased revenue, fuel prices have more than doubled in a year for the fleet, rising from an average of $1.11 per gallon in 2004 for diesel to $2.44 today.
The agency has proposed raising local transit fares by 25 cents in January.
Even if gasoline prices for auto commuting drops, RTD expects to hold onto many of the new commuters it has lured in recent weeks, Reed said. “We expect to retain a significant portion of the new riders. The biggest obstacle is getting people to try transit.”
Overall, the combined RTD bus and light-rail ridership for August – even before the gas price peak – was up 10.4 percent over the same time last year. In September ridership was up 7 percent from 2004.
Most significant were the numbers of commuters from the farthest suburbs. Weekday ridership was up almost 16 percent on light-rail lines; and nearly 13 percent on express commuter buses in both August and September.
Reed, a bus rider himself, has had to make three adjustments to his morning schedule to insure a seat. He used to hop on the 7:13 a.m. bus; then he moved to the 7:05; and now he catches the 6:57 a.m.
Some passengers say they take public transportation less because of gas costs than to avoid the congestion of the highways and the hassle of downtown parking.
But that mind-set is beginning to shift, or at least some rethinking is going on.
“Before actions comes attitudes,” says Cary Silvers, vice president of consumer trends at GfK NOP.
When gas prices hit $2.50, many people entered the “coping strategies” phase. That is where many are now, Silvers says.
People are planning routes instead of just jumping in their cars, cutting out unnecessary trips and dipping into discretionary income to pay at the pump. Over dinner tables and backyard fences, they discuss what to do next.
Consider Jeff Jackson, a 42- year-old information technologist from Thornton. When gas prices hit $2.50, even though he already was riding the bus to work, he and his wife decided to trade away their 2003 Yukon XL, a giant SUV that gets about 10 miles per gallon. They bought a 2002 Hyundai Sonata, which fetches a more efficient 26 mpg. He predicts more hard decisions after their first heating bill of the winter arrives.
In an ABC/Washington Post poll from mid-September, 64 percent of people said recent gas-price increases had caused them “financial hardship.”
And in the October issue of the American Association of Retired Persons Bulletin, almost two-thirds of Americans over 50 said they have begun limiting their driving because of gas prices. Also, 13 percent said they were eating less and 6 percent had either reduced medical treatment or cut their prescriptions to afford fuel costs.
Still, it can be a tough sell to cut back on driving, especially in the West where deeply ingrained notions about space and freedom are hard to change.
Patty Limerick, chairwoman of the Center of the American West at the University of Colorado and an expert on Western values, says those attitudes have roots in the landscape, where rough terrain and once- sparse populations contributed to a sense that transportation was determined by the individual. While the populations of Western cities may have caught up with their Eastern counterparts who have long traditions of public transportation, sensibilities change more slowly.
“We feel like we are more independent and self-determining when we are in our car,” she says. That is, she adds wryly, unless we are stuck in traffic.
It is unrealistic to suggest people will ever completely give up … cars, says Silvers.
What is reasonable though, he says, is for the public to demand better and more user- friendly public transportation systems and for automakers to build more fuel-efficient cars, he says.
Many adults today remember gas lines and the anger that came with the energy crises of the 1970s, says Silvers. For years, fuel efficiency was one of the first items checked on car stickers.
“But then we all got older and made more money and gas was relatively inexpensive and it didn’t seem as important,” says Silvers. “Change doesn’t really come until our backs are up against the wall.”
Staff writer Jeff Leib contributed to this report.
Motoring, by the numbers
61 percent
of adults recently polled nationwide by Gallup said recent increases in gasoline prices have caused financial hardship.
62 percent
of those adults say they have cut back on household or other items.
58 percent
said they have cut back on driving while 41 percent said they changed vacation plans.
$200
saved in fuel costs alone per year if you telecommute one day per week. Other savings might include no parking fees, lunches out or dry-cleaning bills.
$602.66
is the real cost of car ownership per month, estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Cost includes purchase price, gas, oil, insurance and maintenance.
15 pounds
is the amount of pollution eliminated from the air for every 4-mile, round-trip bike commute.
