Washington – For the Bush administration, the apparent approval of Iraq’s constitution is less of a victory than yet another chance to possibly fashion a political solution that does not result in the bloody division of Iraq.
Publicly, administration officials hailed the result, but privately some officials acknowledged that the road ahead is still difficult, especially because Sunni Arab voters appeared to have rejected the constitution by a wide margin. As one official put it, every time the administration appears on the edge of a precipice, it manages to cobble together a result that allows it to move on to the next precipice.
The referendum’s defeat would have been disastrous for the administration, and U.S. officials worked strenuously in recent weeks to avert that possibility. Some officials pointed to the relatively low level of violence – achieved during a three-day lockdown of the country – as a positive sign.
Even so, the constitution appears to have been soundly rejected in two Sunni provinces, indicating deep opposition to the document in the areas most crucial to ending the insurgency and binding Iraq’s political wounds.
“This thing is enormous fiasco,” said Juan Cole, a University of Michigan historian and a specialist on Shiite Islam. He said having such a solid bloc in opposition to the constitution “really undermines its legitimacy, and this result guarantees the guerrilla war will go on.”
Success in Iraq – still elusive 2 1/2 years after the U.S.-led invasion – is critical to President Bush’s hopes to provide a democratic anchor in a region long dominated by autocratic governments. But recent polls show a majority of Americans have soured on the invasion, a key factor in the president’s low approval ratings.
Now, the White House’s attention will turn to the December elections to replace the current interim government and elect a new National Assembly.
Bush administration officials have argued that Saturday’s vote, with its increased participation by Sunni Arabs, will draw them into the political process and boost their representation in the Iraqi parliament.
“What (the referendum) will certainly help to do is to broaden the base of the political process, those who are casting their lot with the political process, which means those who are either sitting on the fence or are supportive somehow of the violence will diminish,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in London.
“Ultimately, insurgencies have to be defeated politically,” she said. “You defeat them by sapping them of their political support, and increasingly Iraqis are throwing their support behind the political process, not behind the violence.”
In the December election, provinces will receive proportional representation so even a low turnout in Sunni provinces will still result in more Sunni Arabs being sent to the legislature. In the January elections for the interim parliament, Sunni representation was especially low because most Sunnis boycotted the elections while Kurds largely voted for a Kurdish coalition and Shiites backed a coalition of Shiite Islamist parties.
A last-minute deal last week on the constitution – allowing it to be amended in the next year, rather than eight years as originally anticipated – is also designed to encourage Sunni Arabs to become more involved and reject the insurgency. The constitution was largely drafted to reflect the interests of the Kurdish and Shiite groups that dominate the assembly, including carving out distinct ethnically based territories with greater control over oil wealth.
