Washington – George W. Bush’s first term was a lesson in how a determined and aggressive president can multiply his strength and achieve sweeping change from a narrow electoral base.
His second term increasingly looks like the opposite: a bitter lesson in how swiftly a president’s influence can erode and how quickly presidential weakness can breed division in his party.
The withdrawal Thursday of Harriet Miers’ nomination to the Supreme Court amid a revolt from conservatives underscored that stark message, sent by the failure of Bush’s Social Security restructuring plan and a series of recent uprisings by congressional Republicans:
No longer can the president consistently impose his will on his party, much less the Congress or the country, with his job-approval ratings stuck at 45 percent or lower.
“This is a very simple political equation: Presidents govern based on the perception of their clout,” said GOP pollster Bill McInturff. “In most of Bush’s first term, when he was at 60 percent-plus in his job approval, most people didn’t want to cross the president. And when you are in the range he is now, people feel a little emboldened.”
Beset by those dynamics, Bush is likely to return to the strategy he has stressed throughout his presidency and look for ways to reassure and energize his conservative base, Republican insiders say.
“The key thing for us is to stabilize the situation and repair the breach with conservatives,” said one GOP strategist familiar with White House thinking, who asked not to be identified while discussing administration affairs.
As part of that effort, the strategist said, Bush is likely to select a replacement for Miers whom “conservatives can rally around.”
The selection of a nominee with a clear conservative record – such as federal appellate court judges Michael Luttig, Priscilla Owen or Edith Jones – would meet the right’s demand for a confirmation fight with Democrats that would energize conservative grassroots.
But there’s the rub: When Bush’s approval rating among independents has fallen to the lowest point of his presidency, a polarizing fight to fill the seat of moderate Justice Sandra Day O’Connor could further narrow his appeal.
“You may solve one problem and exacerbate another,” said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota who is writing a book on Bush’s leadership style.
The president’s position could grow even more precarious today, when a special prosecutor is expected to announce whether any White House officials have been indicted in the case revolving around the naming of a covert CIA officer whose husband criticized the administration over Iraq.
If indictments come, following the Miers’ withdrawal and the grim milestone of 2,000 U.S. deaths in Iraq, it would cap one of the most difficult weeks for a president in memory.
“You don’t see many weeks like this,” said Schier.
Bush’s approval rating is running lower than that of any re-elected president in the first year of his second term except Richard Nixon, who was trapped in the Watergate scandal. And Bush’s decline has clearly weakened his hand in Washington.
Adding to the Republican fears of party disarray was the recent decision by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to skip a fundraiser Bush attended in Los Angeles.
Friday, Jerry Kilgore, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, is skipping a Bush speech in the state, arguing that it is not a political event.
“They are stepping over the body,” said one prominent GOP fundraiser close to the White House, who requested anonymity when discussing Bush. “It’s not just due to his poll numbers. … He has alienated the fiscal conservatives and alienated the social conservatives.”
Republican defection is especially difficult for Bush because, after five years of bruising partisan combat, he attracts few votes from Democratic lawmakers for his priorities.
That means resistance from relatively few Republican legislators can deny him majorities.
The GOP strategist familiar with White House thinking said that after the recent reversals, the administration is concluding that it will probably need to defer more to congressional leaders in setting the party’s agenda.
“There is probably going to be some of that,” said the strategist. “It’s not going to be a fundamentally different president by any means. But you make adjustments along the way.”
In the next few months, the strategist added, Bush’s priorities will center on supporting conservative drives for greater budget cuts and working to build a greater party consensus on immigration.
The strategist also said that finding a replacement for Miers who excites the conservative base “could have a catalyzing and energizing effect.”
