Lockheed Martin aerospace engineer Paul Rodrian is engaged in a critical mission – recruiting his own replacement.
At 47, he’s more than a decade away from retirement. Even so, Rodrian regularly visits Colorado middle and high schools to convince students that a career in science isn’t just for nerds.
Aerospace is one of many industries that are anticipating personnel shortages. Over the next 20 years, baby boomers will leave the workforce in ever growing numbers, and younger generations aren’t being prepared to replace those in critical technical careers.
“There is a recognition that we have a dilemma in front of us,” Rodrian said.
The statistical collision is enough to put gray in the hair of anyone running a company that depends on highly trained engineers, scientists and technical workers.
The nation’s 64 million baby boomers make up more than 40 percent of the labor force and are due to begin retiring en masse by the end of the decade.
At the same time, the number of workers between 35 and 44 who have the experience to fill jobs that require experience and/or management skills will fall by 10 percent.
Metro Denver may be hit harder than other metropolitan areas. With 40.1 percent of its adults between the ages of 40 and 59, the metro area has the nation’s highest percentage of baby boomers of any major metro market, according to the 2005 Denver/2004 Multi-Market Scarborough Report.
For decades, Colorado has filled its specialized jobs by luring much of its educated workforce from other states. Those most likely to come here have been between 20 and 30 years old, said state demographer Elizabeth Garner.
Companies will find themselves recruiting employees from a smaller national pool. They will have to compete harder to lure the workers they need, said Tom Clark, executive vice president of the Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation.
The competition will grow more fierce in coming years as other factors come into play.
More than half of all doctorates in engineering and math and more than 40 percent of all doctorates in computer science go to foreign residents, according to a 2004 study by the American Electronic Association.
A decade ago, their homelands had few jobs for them to fill. Now, countries such as India and China have developed technology industries that can employ their citizens after they have been trained in America.
Tighter post-9/11 immigration restrictions also have made it harder for foreign students and highly skilled workers to enter the U.S.
As a boy, Rodrian was lured to aerospace engineering by the exploits of the country’s newest heroes – the astronauts. “There was a ‘wow’ factor,” he said. With technology that now advances so rapidly that each day brings a new discovery, youngsters aren’t as easily impressed by science, he said.
Nor are they being encouraged to study it in school. U.S. high school seniors rank at or near the bottom on math and science scores worldwide, according to the American Electronic Association.
“We don’t put the right emphasis on math and science and computer science,” Rodrian said.
No one knows how great the brain drain will be. In Colorado, utilities such as Xcel Energy and oil and gas companies such as EnCana Oil & Gas are already feeling the strain.
Xcel will lose 1,100 of its 12,000 employees to retirement over the next four years, said spokesman Tom Henley. Another 2,200 are expected to leave between 2010 and 2015.
Forty-two percent of EnCana’s 4,400 employees will become eligible for retirement by 2010. Other oil and gas companies face a similar talent drain.
“We are an aging, graying industry,” said Greg Schnacke, executive vice president of the Colorado Oil and Gas Association.
Seventy-nine percent of all boomers say they plan to continue working, at least part time, after reaching age 65, and some companies are developing programs to retain them.
Stan Chapman, 69, was hired by Fort Collins-based Platte River Power Authority to help train apprentices in all the power plant’s technical positions. The cross-training is designed to help them step into jobs left vacant through retirement. His position was created after the power authority realized that 40 percent of its 200 workers planned to retire within five years.
Chapman also is working to retain the company’s older workers. “Every time I hear a rumor that someone is going to retire, I hunt them down,” he said. “I understand the reality of someone who wants to retire, and I am in a good position to talk them into not doing that.”
Smart companies are studying the problem now rather than waiting for the brain drain, said Linda Barrington, research director with the Conference Board, a New York research organization. “Whoever figures this out gets the competitive edge.”
IBM is seeking to capitalize on the coming retirements by helping other businesses understand how vulnerable they will be once the boomer exodus begins. Big Blue is supplying them with software, consulting services and technological fixes. But businesses can also prepare for the retirement boom by recruiting – and helping to educate – younger workers, and offering older employees phased retirement plans and other incentives to stay on the job.
EnCana gave Colorado Mountain College $3 million to build a new campus in Rifle, and Xcel is developing and helping to fund a technical training program with Red Rocks Community College.
Architectural engineering firm Merrick & Co., which is headquartered in Aurora, is offering internships that can lead to jobs for budding talent.
Dan Harrington, 24, has a master’s in civil engineering from the University of Colorado at Boulder and had a four-year internship with Merrick before going to work for the company.
“Right off the bat they bring you in and pair you with one person who acts as your mentor,” Harrington said. “They include you in everything they do. You are not just someone making copies or making coffee.”
Merrick is also encouraging older employees to stay. Structural engineer Gordon Laib, 66, said his bosses have made it clear that they don’t want him to retire. “They kind of value the old man’s input,” Laib said.
Replacing some employees in industries such as aerospace will be difficult, even if younger trained workers can be attracted, said Su Hawk, president of the Colorado Software and Internet Association.
“When you have someone retire from Lockheed after 26 years, you can’t replace them,” she said.
“The experience of problem-solving and being on a team for 26 years, that proof of performance is mission critical.”
Staff writer Tom McGhee can be reached at 303-820-1671 or tmcghee@denverpost.com.
