Whether Referendums C and D pass or fail, one of the biggest winners in Tuesday’s election may turn out to be 2006 Republican gubernatorial candidate Marc Holtzman.
Unknown to most GOP voters three months ago, Holtzman has boosted his name recognition by closely associating himself with the campaign to defeat the budget measures. In speeches and radio and television ads, Holtzman has become the public face for the anti-tax movement and ingratiated himself with the most conservative wing of the Republican Party.
“I think Holtzman has improved his situation no matter how the election turns out,” said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College. “His name is better known now, and because of the publicity and his anti-tax stance, he is a stronger challenger” to Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez in the primary.
While Beauprez also opposed C and D, he has avoided political controversy by not doing anything that would upset the half of the Republican Party often characterized as more moderate that is supporting C and D. His ability to deftly navigate the choppy political waters, political observers say, leaves him insulated from attacks on either side.
“Unlike Holtzman, Beauprez hasn’t been out there waving the flag,” said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University. “After the election, Beauprez’s approach should be that ‘the people have spoken, and I respect that.”‘
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter, who like most Democrats supported C and D, is expected to feel little heat as well. If the measures pass, he’s on the winning side.
If they don’t pass, he and other Democrats can blame Republican lawmakers during next year’s budget session.
Even though Holtzman’s name recognition may have spiked over the past few months, that doesn’t necessarily translate into political support now or down the road. Because of that, political watchers say, Holtzman should tread lightly.
If the measures are defeated and Holtzman is perceived as boasting or gloating, or perhaps taking too much credit, his negative numbers could go up – a serious problem for a gubernatorial candidate.
If the referendums pass, Holtzman’s power and influence come into question. Pointing fingers, especially at Beauprez for not doing enough to defeat the ballot measures, also could hurt him.
His anti-tax position will help in precinct caucuses and county assemblies, Loevy says, but he has to face the state assemblies and the primary, where there will be wealthy and influential moderate Republicans – many of whom were for C and D.
“A considerable segment of the Republican Party backed C and D and will be disappointed if it fails,” Loevy said. “That may have a big impact in the primary.”
Staff writer Karen Crummy can be reached at 303-820-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com.
