Brasilia, Brazil – Natural gas and geopolitics will top the agenda when Bolivian president-elect Evo Morales meets with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil.
But the larger question will be whether Morales follows Silva’s example of shedding his leftist rhetoric in favor of market friendly reforms and fiscal conservatism or joins the likes of Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, leading South America further to the left. The two leaders are to meet Friday.
The parallels between Morales and Silva are numerous, both men are former-union leaders who rose up from their countries’ underclasses to become president.
And Morales has stirred fear among the United States and international investors that he would lead his country to nationalize industries, just as Silva scared investors before taking office.
Oil companies, including Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras SA, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Spanish-Argentine firm Repsol YPF, have invested some $3.5 billion during the past 10 years, helping find and develop South America’s second largest natural gas reserves after Venezuela’s.
But analysts here see many signs that suggest Morales will follow Silva’s path rather than risk further isolating his small, poor and landlocked country.
“To a certain point, that is already happening,” said David Fleischer, a political analyst at the University of Brasilia.
“It’s enough to look at the tone of his speeches since he was elected.” During a visit to China Monday, Morales declared that country his ideological ally.
But in Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and France, Morales reassured political leaders and energy executives that his government will respect foreign capital.
Morales has also found common ground with Bolivian business leaders, telling them he would work to attract foreign investment and create jobs.
Morales will stay in Brasilia just a few hours Friday, but his visit is considered key to ensuring stability for his government and to promoting investments that would dramatically increase revenue in one of Latin America’s poorest countries.
Silva is expected to work to help Bolivia achieve full member status in the South American trade bloc Mercosur alongside Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
“The full membership will confer on Bolivia international diplomatic attention and at the same tie the country to the democratic clauses that oblige members to respect democracy,” Fleischer said.
It should also help improve dialogue between the Morales’ government and the United States, which was been strained by Morales’ often fiery rhetoric – has declared he would be “a nightmare” for the United States.
And as a leader of the coca growers union, Morales has promised to end U.S.-sponsored programs to eradicate coca, the raw material for cocaine.
But Morales has said that does not mean he will be soft on drug trafficking, which he has vowed to combat rigorously.
What is unclear is if this combat will involve cooperation with the United States, without which Bolivia would see its possibilities limited. The anti-cocaine campaign is also important for Brazil, which is increasingly becoming a destination for the drug.
Silva is hoping to win from Morales assurances that Bolivia will continue to supply his country natural gas. And is likely to lure the Bolivian leader with some costly Brazilian industrial plans.
