To catch the eyes of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, Big 12 teams have some work to do.
As the schedule heads into February, only Texas should feel assured of an NCAA Tournament bid. Having notched nonconference victories over West Virginia, Iowa, Memphis and Villanova, the league-leading Longhorns probably could coast to an 8-8 finish in the Big 12 regular season and still earn a bid.
Everybody else among the current logjam had better target at least a 10-6 conference record.
With the Big 12’s RPI still just ranking fifth-best, going 9-7 in this league might not cut it. And just to be certain of a bid, any 10-6 record had better be glittered with road victories and several victories over tournament- worthy teams.
“I’ve talked to members of the selection committee, and to at least be considered (for the NCAA Tournament) you have to win some road games,” Oklahoma State coach Eddie Sutton said. “And they also put quite a bit of emphasis on what a team does in the last 10 games of the season.”
Texas coach Rick Barnes calls February “separation time.”
Colorado’s Ricardo Patton has referred to it as “the moving month” in the standings. A game of musical chairs will play out during the next four or five weeks. And when the music stops and the selection committee sits down to deliberate, only four or perhaps five bids will be coming the Big 12’s way.
Consider Texas a lock. And Oklahoma, which defeated Texas on Saturday, is getting better guard play and looks poised to finish with a flurry. But Iowa State coach Wayne Morgan said most conference teams “could be thrown into a box, and if they played 10 times they’d go 5-5.”
If Texas goes 14-2 against the league and Oklahoma finishes 12-4 or 11-5, the laws of mathematics – and Big 12 history – suggest there won’t be room for a bunch of 10-6 teams.
Nobody can blame Colorado’s Patton for already talking publicly about the NCAA Tournament. Planting a seed to his players about their merit could build confidence and raise the bar on expectations.
Yes, Colorado has nice road wins against Missouri and Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, both have slipped of late in the conference standings. Yes, the Buffaloes jumped into this week’s ESPN-USA Today coaches poll at No. 25. But at last glance, CU stood just 47th in RPI.
To finish 10-6, Colorado must win the remainder of its home games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa State, and also bag another road victory from among Iowa State, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Nebraska and Kansas. If the Buffs slip up at home, say against Oklahoma, they’d have to win two more road games to go 10-6.
And losing to Oklahoma could leave CU without a victory over a top-25 team. That “wart” wouldn’t go unnoticed by the selection committee. Remember, two years ago the Buffs went 10-6 and finished fourth in the Big 12 but were bypassed by the selection committee because they lacked victories over marquee opponents. Of course, Colorado didn’t have victories two years ago in Stillwater or Columbia or at the famed Palestra (vs. Penn). Those road successes will help this season’s team.
Footnotes
CU junior guard Marcus Hall is considered day to day as to his availability for practice. Hall collapsed on the court without contact Saturday night against Kansas State because of muscle spasms in his lower back. He was taken off the floor on a stretcher and then was transported to Boulder Community Hospital. He received intravenous fluids and then was released. CU doesn’t play again until Sunday at Iowa State. … Former Texas Tech freshman guard Terry Martin has transferred to LSU.
