Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter likely would defeat Republican opponent Bob Beauprez if the election were held today, according to a poll conducted for The Denver Post.
In the battle between the two best-known candidates, Ritter leads by 6 percentage points, with 43 percent to Beauprez’s 37 percent.
However, with more than eight months left until the general election, 20 percent of the 625 respondents are undecided on that matchup.
The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“This race is far from settled,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll this week. “It appears neither one has really established themselves with voters.”
The poll shows that Ritter, who has been criticized by some in the Democratic Party for his stance against abortion rights, is ahead with female voters. Forty- six percent of women chose Ritter, a former Denver district attorney, compared with 31 percent for Arvada Congressman Beauprez. Among men, 43 percent backed Beauprez, while 40 percent supported Ritter.
Ritter also has siphoned away some Republicans, getting 13 percent of his support from GOP voters. In contrast, Beauprez has garnered only 5 percent of his backing from Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Ritter is ahead by 7 percentage points.
The poll results, said political analyst Eric Sondermann, indicate that the furor over Ritter’s position on abortion within the Democratic Party is not statewide.
“It shows that the angst and outright hostility among a narrow cadre of activist Democrats is not a broader symptom,” he said. “It also indicates that this ultimately has the makings of a very, very competitive race.”
House Majority Leader Alice Madden, a Boulder Democrat who supports abortion rights and is considering taking on Ritter in the primary, said the poll influences her decision only “to the extent that it shows the Democrats can win.” She said she hopes to make up her mind by Wednesday.
Beauprez’s favorability ratings in the poll are one point higher than Ritter’s, but his unfavorable ratings are nearly seven times those of Ritter. Coker and others noticed a recent pattern of Republicans getting high negatives from Democrats in polls, mostly due to anger directed toward the Bush administration.
Some respondents said Beauprez’s affiliation with Bush is a plus.
“I think he stands for some of the basic Republican values that President Bush does,” said Ron Christian, 61, a Republican and former pastor from Fort Collins. “I’m a very strong supporter of President Bush and what he has stood for over the last five years.”
Ritter spokesman Evan Dreyer said the poll was “great news” and consistent with the campaign’s own internal polls. The Beauprez campaign said that it expected a tough governor’s race from Day One.
“Colorado is a competitive state, and we anticipate a long and hard-fought battle,” said spokesman John Marshall.
Ritter also leads Republican Marc Holtzman, former president of the University of Denver, in a head-to-head matchup by 20 percentage points. The other Democratic candidate, Gary Lindstrom, a state representative from Breckenridge, also is ahead of Holtzman by a slim margin. In that race, 46 percent of the respondents were undecided.
Holtzman’s campaign manager, Dick Leggitt, said the company that conducted the poll for The Post relies too much on name identification.
“This is a poll of who do you know,” he said. Holtzman’s name in the poll was recognized by only 50 percent of the respondents. “We readily concede that Marc is not as well-known now as he will be in a couple months,” he said.
Lindstrom could not be reached for comment.
Sandra Graham, 45, of Colorado Springs said it was too early for her to decide whom to vote for. Although she is a registered Republican, she says she votes on issues more than a straight party ticket. She’s concerned about medicare, taxes and illegal immigration but primarily education.
“Republican candidates usually favor school choice more than Democrats,” said the mother of four, whose children attend private school. “But I haven’t heard enough from where the candidates stand.”
While 16 percent of those polled said they didn’t recognize Beauprez’s name, almost twice that number had not heard of Ritter. Coker said that could be an advantage for Ritter because he could gather a fair number of undecideds once they got to know him.
As a result, some political observers noted that Beauprez’s best strategy is to strongly define his own candidacy over the next couple of months as he wrestles Holtzman for the Republican nomination. He has to walk a fine line between appealing to the social-conservative base, which dominates the caucuses, and to the more moderate Republicans who turn out in the primary and general election.
For instance, Gary Fleming, 55, a Golden Republican, said he wanted to vote for John Hickenlooper, but now that the Denver mayor has decided not to run for governor, he doesn’t know what he will do.
“I tend to believe that both Beauprez and especially Holtzman are just too far on the extreme,” he said. “I tend to like moderate candidates, so I tend to like Ritter right now – but it’s still early.”
The poll was commissioned before Hickenlooper announced he would not join the race. As a candidate, he would do slightly better against the Republicans than Ritter.
Hickenlooper led the pack in the poll, beating Beauprez 48 percent to 32 percent and Holtzman by 24 percentage points.
Once Beauprez can characterize himself, political watchers say, he should define Ritter before the Democrat can do it himself.
“Beauprez absolutely must define Bill Ritter, but he also must be careful because his negatives are so low,” said GOP consultant Katy Atkinson. “They don’t want Ritter to appeal to the soft Republicans, the ones who voted for Bush and (Democratic U.S. Sen.) Ken Salazar and who supported Referendum C.”
Staff writers George Merritt and Mark P. Couch contributed to this report.
Staff writer Karen Crummy can be reached at 303-820-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com.
